Peace in Gaza May Not Mean Peace in the Red Sea

CIMSEC – While Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and adjoining waterways may wax and wane in the coming months, safe transit through the Red Sea is unlikely to become a reality in the foreseeable future. The Houthis’ Red Sea campaign is not intrinsically linked to the Gaza conflict and may therefore continue even if that war ends peacefully. The Houthis will likely continue to use these attacks as a leverage point to press for more favorable final-status peace negotiations with both Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s internationally recognized government to help secure them a more advantageous political position in Yemen moving forward. Only an end to the decades-long conflict between the Houthis and their enemies within Yemen will bring an end to the group’s efforts to disrupt maritime commerce in the region.

Stopping Flow of Weapons to Houthis Key to Halting Merchant Attacks, Says Fleet Forces Commander

USNI News – Stopping Flow of Weapons to Houthis Key to Halting Merchant Attacks, Says Fleet Forces Commander

Interdicting the flow of missiles, drones and other weapons and parts from Iran to the Yemen-based Houthis is key to keeping Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea safer for merchant shipping, Fleet Forces commander said Thursday. Adm. Daryl Caudle, speaking at a Navy League event, said, “we just can’t cede that chokepoint” to the Iranian-backed Houthis in what had been one of the most trafficked commercial sea lanes.

The Houthis and Hybrid Maritime Warfare

Wavell Room – The Houthis’ actions perfectly align with what leading US defence intellectual Frank G. Hoffman once called hybrid maritime warfare.  Hoffman has defined hybrid maritime warfare as ‘a form of warfare combining asymmetric naval tactics, sophisticated weapons, and terrorist activity’.  He argued that Iran and Iraq’s systematic attacks against merchant vessels in the late 1980s, which became known as the Tanker War,  exemplified maritime hybrid warfare. 

The Houthis, Operation Prosperity Guardian, and Asymmetric Threats to Global Commerce​

Center For Maritime Security – U.S. military officials and policymakers face a difficult choice in the Bab el-Mandeb: commit to a massive and sustained investment in maintaining open sea lanes by permanently neutralizing the Yemeni Houthi movement or allowing the international community to bear the burden of increased shipping costs. The geopolitical consequences of this decision will not be limited to the Arabian Peninsula and—in either case—the Houthis’ asymmetric blockade of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is setting a massive precedent in the modern history of naval warfare.

Panda Express: A Proposed Convoy Operation in the Red Sea

CIMSEC – China does indeed have influence over Iran and, by extension, the Houthis in what has now become an “Axis of Insecurity.” Panda Express would reduce the likelihood of new attacks like that on M/V True Confidence and M/V Huang Pu and put direct pressure on China to either explain to the court of international opinion why shadowing Chinese vessels is a safe tactic, or influence Iran and the Houthis to end their aggression in the Red Sea altogether. Either way, China loses, and the rest of the world wins. It’s time to order Panda Express.