Tactical Success, Strategic Failure? Washington Walks the Path to Defeat in Iran

War on the Rocks – Six weeks after the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran, what was the political object? Not the military means and objectives — those are the hammer, not the nail. The nail is: What condition in the world, what durable change in Iran’s relationship to the United States and its neighbors, were these strikes meant to produce? That question was never answered, because it was never seriously asked. The Trump administration confused the instrument for the purpose and then changed the purpose whenever the instrument produced inconvenient results.

Regent Squire Wing-In-Ground Effect Drone Demonstrator Makes First Flight

The War Zone – As it prepares for a potential future fight in the Pacific, the Marines tell us they are watching the progress of a wing-in-ground effect (WIG) drone concept that recently had its first test flight as a scale model. Being pitched as “the first ever Unmanned Surface and Aerial Vehicle (USA-V),” the Regent Squire is designed to conduct ISR, logistics, and combat search and rescue (CSAR) tasks in contested areas, the company states. It is also being eyed for counter-narcotics operations and anti-submarine warfare operations.

Practical, scalable and proven – Oceanus medium-sized uncrewed surface vessels

Navy Lookout – Zero USV’s Oceanus12 has moved from concept to credible operational platform, with a larger 17-metre variant now in development. For the Royal Navy, the question is no longer whether such vessels work, but how they might be integrated into operations alongside existing and future warships.

The Sicilian Expedition – Lessons From an Ancient Disaster

CIMSEC – Athens and Sparta serve as parables for the U.S. and China. While Athens offers lessons to the U.S. as a historic precursor, ultimately it was a foolhardy rising power that collapsed following a disastrous invasion of an island hundreds of miles offshore. Perhaps while the Taiwan Strait is no Ionian Sea and technological advances have long rendered triremes obsolete, this strategic warning is more relevant to China. Sparta, a status quo power like the U.S., simply had to await its adversary’s fatal misjudgment to invade Sicily–the rest is history.

Desert Storm Made the PLA – What is the Iran War Making?

CIMSEC – In January 1991, Chinese military officers watched CNN footage of the United States dismantling the Iraqi Army and experienced what one People’s Liberation Army (PLA) analyst later called a “psychological nuclear attack.” Desert Storm displayed every capability the PLA lacked, and China had no choice but to begin remaking its military from the ground up.

With the Shield Or On It? – Aspides and the EU Aspirations for Sea Control

CIMSEC – Beyond the specific case of the Houthis and the Red Sea, the analysis points to broader lessons. It underscores the need to improve the efficiency of EU naval operations, particularly in high-intensity contexts, while also highlighting implications for NATO as it prepares to confront the practical challenges of sustaining protracted operations in littoral waters against a well-armed, land-based opponent.

A Temporary Corridor Strategy For Hormuz

CIMSEC – The Strait of Hormuz does not need to be made safe to reopen global shipping. It only needs to be made governable. Even as the United States has begun striking selected Iranian military targets—including recent operations against military facilities on Kharg Island—the fundamental challenge in the Gulf remains unchanged: restoring predictable commercial transit through a contested maritime chokepoint without triggering a broader regional war. Attempts to eliminate every Iranian capability that could threaten shipping would require a prolonged campaign across the Persian Gulf. A more practical approach is to establish a temporary defended transit corridor, concentrating naval escort, airborne surveillance, shipborne helicopter protection, and a limited southern-shore defensive node into a narrow and defensible passage through the strait.

Navy MQ-4C Triton’s Fate Unknown After Disappearing From Flight Tracking Over Persian Gulf

The War Zone – U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone disappeared abruptly and unexpectedly from online flight tracking sites after declaring an in-flight emergency while flying over the Persian Gulf today. The uncrewed aircraft was also tracked rapidly losing altitude right beforehand, prompting widespread questions about its fate. This comes just two days after the United States and Iran agreed to a still very fragile ceasefire, which is heavily contingent on the reopening of the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Asymmetric Counterair Campaign: Attacking the U.S. Air Force’s Nests and Eggs

War on the Rocks – On March 27, Iranian drones and missiles struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, destroying an E-3 Sentry, an airborne command center for U.S. operations in the region, and damaging multiple KC-135 tankers. It was not the first strike. Earlier in the month, an Iranian attack had already damaged five KC-135s at the same base. In the history of these aircraft, no enemy had ever achieved such a hit until Iran did both — within two weeks.

Pinning the tail on the Moskva: POPPY and the dawn of satellite ocean surveillance

The Space Review – In 1963, American reconnaissance satellites overflew a shipyard in Mykolayev, Ukraine, on the Black Sea, and photographed evidence of a new large vessel under construction. But it was not until 1965 that satellite photographs revealed it to be “an unusual ship,” in the words of a CIA report. Later that year, it became clear that it “was a helicopter platform, with either an ASW or amphibious assault mission.” It was launched in 1967 and began sea trial inside Soviet waters. This was a time when the Soviet Union was beginning to send its fleet further out to sea, challenging the US Navy, and any new large warship was of great interest to the Navy admirals.