Defending Global Order Against China’s Maritime Insurgency – Part 1

CIMSEC – The international order has come under immense strain in recent years. Major wars have erupted between the great powers in Ukraine and the Middle East. The U.S.’s top geopolitical rivals have increasingly coalesced, with China and Russia both rapidly modernizing and expanding their arsenals of strategic weapons. Meanwhile, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan looms, possibly backed by Moscow. The current challenges make China’s years-old claims to the entirety of the South China Sea seem quaint and insignificant in comparison.

Hunter Stires, who served as the Maritime Strategist to the Secretary of the Navy during the tenure of Secretary Carlos Del Toro, views each of these challenges as interconnected parts of a global struggle for the Freedom of the Sea and the international order, with the central front in the South China Sea. Stires believes the future of global order rests on the extent to which China succeeds in claiming ownership to one of the world’s most important waterways and disrupting the centuries-old concept of the freedom of the seas upon which the modern global order was founded. Stires helped found the U.S. Navy’s Maritime Counterinsurgency (COIN) Project to better conceptualize and combat China’s battle to overturn the international order at sea. This interview captures Stires’ thoughts on the history of the Maritime COIN project and its ongoing relevance for intensifying strategic competition between the US and China.

The Unwitting Fleet

CIMSEC – The maritime sector’s cybersecurity gaps are typically framed as a defensive problem – vessels at risk of attack, operations vulnerable to disruption. This framing, while accurate, is incomplete.

The unwitting fleet is not merely vulnerable. It is already functioning as adversary intelligence infrastructure. Thousands of vessels transit strategic waters broadcasting position, transmitting communications through exploitable links, and maintaining connections to shoreside networks – all without security adequate to the operating environment.

The commercial fleet provides positioning, sensors, and connectivity. Operators maintain the infrastructure and pay the bills. Collection requires only the will and skill to access what is already exposed.

A vessel does not need to be gray-hulled to present intelligence value – or strategic risk. Naval and intelligence communities attentive to military communications security should extend that awareness to the unwitting fleet operating every day on the world’s oceans.

Why America Needs a Four Ocean Navy

CIMESC – America’s strategic map must change. The two-ocean Navy of the past secured victory in World War II and sustained deterrence preventing great power conflict throughout the Cold War. With the inability to field high-end, multipurpose warships globally, we need a four-ocean Navy that recognizes the Atlantic, Arctic, Indian, and Pacific as distinct theaters with unique requirements. This is a call for clarity: matching missions to oceans and tailoring warships with crews to oceans.

Moving Toward Distributed Maritime Operations: Getting the Navy Out of its VLS Hole

CIMSEC – The U.S. Navy faces a period in which its missile-firing capacity is declining as strategic threats are rising. Distributing long-range fires across existing additional classes of ships with the help of containerized launchers offers a solution to fill the VLS gap, provide reload flexibility, and expand the number of shooters at sea. While some vessels might not possess the same organic communications, radars, and command and control capabilities as destroyers and cruisers, Navy efforts to improve the fleet’s connectivity and battle network could eventually mean these missiles can be used with the help of other ships in the theater. In distributing lethality this way, the Navy could dig itself out of its VLS hole faster, and achieve the virtues of mass without the vulnerabilities of concentration.

Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age

War on the Rocks – The Hellscape concept shifts the strategic calculus. The question is no longer whether Taiwan can win a conventional war against China. The question is whether Beijing can stomach the operational chaos, staggering casualties, and strategic uncertainty that an invasion would bring. By making an assault prohibitively costly and dangerously unpredictable, Taiwan can deter it from happening in the first place.

A Torpedo in the Trade Lanes: Naval Warfare Returns to the Indo-Pacific

War on the Rocks – The sinking of the IRIS Dena was a stark reminder that naval warfare follows its own logic. Engagements can occur far from home waters, unfold with little warning, and carry consequences well beyond the immediate tactical exchange. In this case, a single submarine strike intersected with global trade flows, alliance dynamics, contested information environments, and the legal realities of conflict at sea.

Useful Lemons

CIMSEC – This article proposes the creation of sea-going factories and power plant ships to obtain decisive strategic advantages. Advantages range from shortened supply lines to specialized and customized resupply of both land and sea forces. The consideration of factory ships should not be framed as specialized vessels versus generalized ones. Factory ships should be viewed foremost as factories that happen to float and move like ships, and not primarily as ships.

Though such vessels will need to be specifically designed one day, the present threat represented by the PRC can be addressed by refitting unwanted, but functional, vessels into sea-going factory ships. This article strongly urges a study to be performed to decide the feasibility of the pure concept and its rapid implementation through retrofitting existing vessels.

Mass Drones to Save Missiles: A High-Low Mix For the Pacific

CIMSEC – A future war in the Western Pacific will not be decided by which side fields the most exquisite platforms on the opening day of combat, but by which side can afford to keep firing on day one hundred. The U.S. is currently organized around a force-and-munitions paradigm that assumes short, decisive campaigns that do not exist in reality. Against a peer with a large, industrialized economy and an asymmetric approach designed to circumvent U.S. short-range precision strike, the result is likely paralysis if not outright defeat.

The United States Cannot Deter China Without Allied Shipyards

CIMSEC – A stronger homegrown U.S. shipbuilding and maritime industry remains essential. But domestic revitalization and allied integration are not alternatives; they are mutually reinforcing. A revitalized U.S. industrial base working closely with selected, capable, and willing maritime allies is indispensable to a strategy of deterrence along the First Island Chain. Understood in this light, allied shipbuilding is not optional. It is imperative.

China’s Own Seawolf-class Submarine: The Type 095

Naval News – In the high-stakes world of submarine acquisition, true performance-first designs are exceedingly rare. The immense cost involved almost always forces trade-offs, shaping vessels around budget, strategy, and industrial constraints as much as pure capability. Until now the U.S. Navy’s Seawolf-class stood as the benchmark of an uncompromising approach to undersea warfare. Now, it appears that China’s latest nuclear-powered attack submarine, the Type 095 (also known as Type 09V), is built with a similarly ambitious philosophy.

CMSI Translations #28: Uphold the Idea of a Maritime Community with a Shared Destiny and Forge a New Chapter in Maritime Military Security Cooperation

China Maritime Studies Institute – The concept of a maritime community with a shared destiny proposed by Chairman Xi is China’s wisdom and approach for maintaining global maritime peace, promoting ocean development, enhancing global maritime governance, and advancing maritime security cooperation. This should guide efforts to tailor security cooperation relationships based on different targets. We need to broaden our thinking and innovate mechanisms for maritime security cooperation, take proactive steps to provide maritime public security goods, strengthen coordinated implementation of external maritime military assistance, and promote the creation of a new landscape in maritime military security cooperation.