War on the Rocks – For peace to be likely in the Taiwan Strait in the 2020s, Taiwan and its friends will need to take radical action to develop short-term constraints on Chinese action but also look for ways to encourage internal restraint among Chinese decision-makers, something that will require recognizing practically what the Department of Defense has recognized theoretically: that if China comes to view the evolution of the status quo in increasingly negative terms, its incentives not to use force are correspondingly reduced.