War on the Rocks – The agreement this past weekend, will purportedly allow the Philippines to temporarily conduct resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre without militarized interference, while China maintains its claim that the atoll is firmly within Chinese territorial water. As the text of this agreement has yet to be made public, we cannot firmly say how these gains were won, but it is possible that the recent strengthening of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, or even explicit offers from the United States to assist in defending the atoll have caused China to reconsider its aggressive stance. However, agreements with China built on détente have historically failed to achieve their goals. If recent history is any guide, the best way to avoid a further escalation of the conflict in the South China Sea is to make clear that Beijing cannot conquer the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone at anything like an acceptable cost.