War on the Rocks – If the United States is serious about denial strategy along the First Island Chain, credibility will be tested less in Taiwan than in the Philippines — specifically in whether Manila can politically sustain resilient, repairable, and survivable infrastructure under pressure. That test hinges on investing in resilience over symbolism. Hardened facilities, dispersed logistics, and rapid repair matter more than episodic presence. And those capabilities must be politically sustainable in Manila if deterrence by denial is to endure.