War on the Rocks – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a flurry of handwringing over Taiwan. Russia, in this interpretation, “broke the ice” by attacking Ukraine, emboldening China versus Taiwan. But any such action by China would likely run into a similar buzzsaw of resistance, while lacking Russian advantages such as access to overland transit. Ukraine is not Taiwan, and regardless of what Chinese leadership thinks they are learning about the benefits of naked aggression, the People’s Liberation Army lacks the necessary power projection and sustainment capability and capacity to execute an opposed occupation of a densely urbanized island packed with citizens who have no interest in living under Communist rule.

Chinese Maritime Studies Institute – Most analysts looking at the Chinese military threat to Taiwan conclude that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is incapable of invading the island because it lacks the landing ships to transport adequate quantities of troops and equipment across the Taiwan Strait. This report challenges that conventional wisdom, arguing that the PLA intends to meet these requirements by requisitioning civilian vessels operated by members of China’s maritime militia (海上民兵). Since the early 2000s, the Chinese government and military have taken steps to strengthen the national defense mobilization system to ensure the military has ample quantities of trained militia forces to support a cross-strait invasion. Despite ongoing challenges—including poor data management, inconsistent training quality, and gaps in the regulatory system—and uncertainties associated with foreign-flagged Chinese ships, this concept of operations could prove good enough to enable a large-scale amphibious assault.

USNI News – China has been honing its ship-killing skills for potential future conflicts on new targets in a remote desert, according to new satellite photos reviewed by USNI News. New analysis shows the People’s Liberation Army is testing the ability to hit ships in port with long-range ballistic missiles.

1945 – It’s important to note that strategic deterrence vis-à-vis China involves far more than doomsday weapons. The Chinese Communist Party has resolved to make geostrategic gains with the least amount of physical force possible. Preferably party chieftains want to intimidate Asian neighbors without warfare; they want not to fight, and pursue their aims accordingly. Therefore, deterring China in the “gray zone” and the conventional arena is strategic deterrence.

USNI News – Russia has deployed trained dolphins during its invasion of Ukraine to protect a Black Sea naval base.

China Maritime Studies Institute – The PLA Army’s (PLAA) amphibious units would serve as the core of any joint force charged with invading Taiwan. As a result of the 2017 reforms, the PLAA now possesses six amphibious combined arms brigades distributed across three group armies (the 72nd, 73rd, and 74th). During a cross-strait invasion, these brigades would likely receive support from other elements of the group armies to which they belong. This could include fire support, air defense, air transport, aerial fire support, and electronic warfare/cyber-attack.

Center for Strategic and International Studies – How foreign companies help modernize China’s navy.

War Zone – This appears to be our first glimpse of China’s anti-ship ballistic missile tailored to be fired from its most advanced warships.

War Zone – China’s mysterious air-launched anti-ship ballistic missile just made its latest appearance.

1945 – Suppose General David Berger, the commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, gets his way and transforms the corps into an island-hopping, missile-toting force able to transmute the first island chain into a “Great Wall in reverse”—a barricade against sea and air movement between the China seas and the Western Pacific. Chinese Communist Party magnates might be deterred for a time from misadventures in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, or East China Sea, but they would not meekly acquiesce in their imprisonment within coastal waters.

Global Times – The US Navy has reportedly deployed three spy ships simultaneously to sensitive waters near China over the past week in a provocative move experts said on Thursday aims to boost its submarine and anti-submarine warfare capabilities against the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

USNI News – Restrictions to the passage of traffic through the Panama Canal and the Strait of Magellan as China moves aggressively to expand its footprint across Central and South America are the top concerns of the current U.S. Southern Command head told a Senate panel.

AP – China has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the disputed South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby, a top U.S. military commander said Sunday.

CIMSEC – Scientists and engineers based in the People’s Republic of China are developing a new generation of gliders that could play a far more direct role in naval combat by detecting enemy submarines. Since 2014, experts at the PLAN Submarine Academy, working with colleagues at civilian institutions, have been equipping Chinese gliders with passive acoustic sensors. Chinese language records of their activities show a determined effort to adapt this technology for anti-submarine warfare (ASW), an enduring weakness for the PLAN—one that, if remedied, could shake U.S. conventional deterrence in the Western Pacific.

China Maritime Studies Institute – The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Airborne Corps would likely play an important role in a cross-strait invasion through operations behind enemy lines. During the landing campaign, the Corps would conduct paradrops or landing operations onto Taiwan, facilitated by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft. Once on island, airborne forces would seize and hold terrain and conduct a variety of operations to support the broader invasion. In recent years, the Corps has reorganized to improve its capability for mechanized maneuver and assault, leveraging the PLAAF’s larger inventories of transport aircraft, particularly the Y-20; improved the sophistication of its training at home; and gleaned insights from abroad via training with foreign militaries. Nevertheless, it is uncertain to what extent the Corps is able to overcome key challenges relevant to a cross-strait campaign. These include ensuring effective integration with similar ground force and marine units; carrying out operations in complex or degraded environments; transcending the Corps’ lack of relevant combat experience; and obtaining adequate air support.

Radio Free Asia – The paths of Chinese survey vessels across the South China Sea for the past two years show a tangle of activity straddling disputed waters off the coasts of all its maritime neighbors in Southeast Asia.

Global Times – The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is reportedly transferring a batch of Type 056 corvettes to the China Coast Guard, with the ships now undergoing retrofitting work. Analysts said on Wednesday that this reflects that the navy has developed to a stage where it no longer needs so many coastal defense vessels, and the coast guard will receive a significant power boost in safeguarding key sea regions, islands and reefs.

War Zone – A large number of China’s “little blue men,” the irregular maritime militia forces that receive support and training from the Chinese government, have gone dark on traditional maritime tracking systems thanks to a new law. 

Global Times – The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy flotilla carrying disaster relief supplies that departed from China late last month will arrive in Tonga soon, and the sailors are adjusting plans to unload the supplies based on the changing situation of the port to be visited.

Naval News – What appears at first sight to be a U.S. Navy Zumwalt Class destroyer, is actually something quite different. A new and mysterious boat has been observed in China.

CIMSEC – This article will focus on this latest coast guard and its transformation into one of the world’s largest from two aspects. The first aspect is the requirement for the development and rapid expansion of a China Coast Guard. This includes the contested claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea and an examination of how a maritime law enforcement agency would fit into that context. The second aspect is the China Coast Guard’s application. This examination will unravel the roles and responsibilities of China Coast Guard, its legal authority, and its conduct of operations.

Naval News – The U.S. Navy only operates nuclear-powered submarines. China meanwhile never stopped operating conventional submarines even though they are less capable. This has advantages and disadvantages. But a new submarine pushes this difference further. It is much smaller than those used by other leading navies.

War Zone – Another new and previously unknown Chinese submarine design has appeared, continuing the country’s prodigious naval shipbuilding program. The emergence of this submarine comes after a new subclass of a conventionally-powered type broke cover last year and the reveal of a highly intriguing “sail-less” design three years before that, though there are no clear indications one way or another that any of these are directly related to each other.

Global Times – During an interview with the Global Times, Remila said her life on the Liaoning is very happy and she loves her career and is willing to shoulder the responsibility to safeguard the happiness and peaceful life of millions of families in the motherland. 

Covert Shores – There are indications that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) has begun decommissioning its KILO Class submarines.

(Thanks to Alain)