CIMSEC – For years, the public debate over a possible Chinese Communist invasion of Taiwan has focused on a single question: Does the People’s Liberation Army have sufficient amphibious lift to move an invasion force across the Taiwan Strait? That question remains important. However, recent Chinese exercises suggest that the People’s Liberation Army is not simply trying to solve the problem of getting forces onto a Taiwanese beach. It is rehearsing how to move, sustain, and conceal a large amphibious campaign across multiple locations.

The War Zone – The catapult-equipped Fujian is now unlocking the J-15T’s strike potential.

RUSI – The ‘Bashi Breakout’ – China’s maritime operation east of Taiwan – is a warning that disruption to maritime trade is spreading to the Indo-Pacific.

War on the Rocks – Normandy was unprecedented in scale but not in kind. A Taiwan invasion would present the reverse problem: Taiwan’s size is not the unprecedented part — the operational challenges are. Analysis of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan typically emphasizes the People’s Liberation Army’s rapid modernization and the possibility of strategic surprise. Far less attention is paid to operational precedent. Three key missions at the heart of any cross-strait campaign have never been successfully executed under modern threat conditions: an amphibious landing against a credible coastal anti-ship missile threat, a large-scale airborne drop against modern air defenses, and a large, opposed air assault at extended range. In other words, the People’s Liberation Army would have to make history three times in the same campaign. I refer to these as the “Three Nevers,” a deliberately tongue-in-cheek nod to Chinese Communist Party doctrinal formulations, or tifa.

China Maritime Studies Institute – “Stand-In Forces” (SIF) is an operational concept proposed by the United States Marine Corps (USMC) within the context of strategic transformation, emphasizing the development of combat forces capable of sustained forward presence within the “weapons engagement zone” (WEZ). These forces can conduct surveillance and reconnaissance, gain long range target custody, and engage in interference, deception, littoral zone harassment, rapid littoral strike, sustainment, protection, and security operations, as well as other actions to address changing conditions and challenges. To counter the continuous penetration and encroachment into our near seas, we must proactively engage and establish effective countermeasures. We must focus on addressing weaknesses and enhancing our amphibious systems warfare advantages; prioritize innovation and advancement to accelerate the development of maritime unmanned combat capabilities; and emphasize advancing the establishment of cyber- and information systems to address our core priorities.

China Maritime Studies Institute – Since early June, the China Coast Guard (CCG) has maintained a continuous presence in waters east of Taiwan. Beijing describes these operations as a response to a joint statement issued by Japan and the Philippines in late May, in which the two countries pledged cooperation to delimit their maritime boundary.

Given their duration, these operations differ from past practice, in which CCG cutters appeared east of Taiwan for short periods of time, ostensibly to signal dissatisfaction with the island’s political leadership.

On 4 July, the original CCG task force deployed after the joint statement was issued was relieved by two new ships, suggesting that Beijing intends to normalize CCG presence in these waters.

Normalized CCG presence east of Taiwan would pose challenges for Japan and the Philippines, as China would likely apply elements of its longstanding East and South China Sea playbook to this new ocean area.

Aside from sovereignty patrols, the CCG could be directed to support operations that exercise China’s claimed coastal state rights east of Taiwan. It could, for instance, escort PRC survey and fishing vessels operating in this disputed space. Using a catalogue of non-lethal means, CCG patrol cutters might also obstruct the operations of foreign fishing and survey vessels.

Taiwan might face these same challenges, while also being confronted with the prospect that normalized CCG operations east of Taiwan could enable a more rapid transition to quarantine operations.

Naval News – China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test into the Pacific has drawn intense scrutiny not only for its political timing, but for what it reveals about the maturing state of Beijing’s sea-based nuclear deterrent.

Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy – This paper surveys the history and background of how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) became one of just six countries so far to possess nuclear-powered submarines, including the core subject of nuclear reactor development and improvement across three submarine generations. If South Korea decides to pursue and successfully develops indigenous nuclear-powered submarines, it will most likely become the seventh country to do so—offering six previous paths to study, of which China is a prominent example. Three-quarters of a century after beginning initial efforts under autarkic austerity, Beijing finally has a capable and growing fleet of modern nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines (SSGNs), and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) equipped with long-range submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). What Mao sensed broadly through a geopolitical lens, modern military science shows with technical specificity: nuclear-powered submarines represent the absolute global “gold standard” for which there is no true substitute—with utterly unmatched potential in propulsion, endurance, sensor and weapons operations, and overall performance. As China’s experience shows, however, the road to success can be lengthy, expensive, and arduous. Ability to study preexisting foreign examples from afar helped somewhat, but tremendous national leadership, resources, and effort over decades have been required.

USNI News – The People’s Liberation Army Navy test fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile from the South China Sea to the Pacific Ocean on Monday, coinciding with the start of an annual naval drill with Russia.

China Maritime Studies Institute – Since 2023, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has established an annualized rhythm of loading PLA Army (PLAA) combat, engineering, and support units onto PLA Navy (PLAN) amphibious ships for international exercises. This integration signals a maturation in Chinese expeditionary logistics, providing Beijing with the proven framework to project sustained, multi-domain combat mass well beyond its regional periphery.

Naval News – More countries are building and operating submarines today than at any point in modern history. Yet amid this global expansion, China has emerged as the dominant force, launching twice as many submarines as any other nation and introducing more new classes.

autoNotion – For as long as anyone has war-gamed a fight with China, the Pacific Ocean has been America’s best defense. It is more than 5,000 nautical miles of open water, and the working assumption has always been that Chinese warships and submarines simply could not cross it in any numbers, which kept the West Coast a long way from any shooting. China is now building underwater drones the size of submarines, and crossing that ocean is more or less the entire point of them.

(Thanks to Alain)

CIMSEC – For years, the public debate over a possible Chinese Communist invasion of Taiwan has focused on a single question: Does the People’s Liberation Army have sufficient amphibious lift to move an invasion force across the Taiwan Strait? That question remains important. However, recent Chinese exercises suggest that the People’s Liberation Army is not simply trying to solve the problem of getting forces onto a Taiwanese beach. It is rehearsing how to move, sustain, and conceal a large amphibious campaign across multiple locations.

Covert Shores – In the past month China has launched the first two boats of a new class of submarine. The new type is longer than the proceeding Type-093C designs at around 120 meters, and appears 10-11 meters across. This makes it longer but slightly narrower than the other new boat, the presumed Type-095, which was launched in February at the Huludao shipyard.

China Maritime Studies Institute – Xi Jinping has played a critical role in the Chinese Navy’s rapid transformation into a large, technologically advanced sea service capable of conducting an expanding catalog of maritime operations, from the littorals of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the Atlantic Ocean.

Naval News – China is launching submarines at a pace unmatched by any other nation. Its latest design, a distinctive and innovative vessel that dispenses with the traditional sail, marks another step in the evolution of an increasingly capable and technologically advanced submarine force. With little official information available, understanding the purpose and capabilities of this new class depends largely on intelligence gathering and expert analysis.

Naval News – Japan confirms first operational integration of the PLAN’s Type 054B / Jiangkai III-class frigate into a carrier strike group formation.

The War Zone – New details add weight to the idea that the “Bohai Sea Monster” has a kinetic role to play, although the general concept could be supersized for other missions.

US Naval War College Review – Despite improvements in precision recruiting, pay, and benefits, and general outreach, several challenges continue to hamper efforts by the PLAN and other services to recruit the best possible candidates. These included overburdened recruiting officials, ineffectual support for military recruitment within China’s universities, and low physical fitness among potential recruits.

China Maritime Studies Institute – Given the substantial increase in sustainment requirements for the PLA Navy’s next-generation aircraft carriers, and acknowledging the limitations inherent in the Type 901 replenishment ship due to the technological constraints of its design era, the next-generation (新型) carrier replenishment vessel is expected to undergo significant modifications compared to its predecessor in several key areas.

Global Times – The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s hospital ship Silk Road Ark returned to a military port in Sanya, South China’s Hainan Province on Sunday after completing Harmony Mission-2025, its first mission outside China and the longest of its kind.

China Maritime Studies Institute – In August 2025, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted a large-scale exercise to simulate an invasion of Taiwan. This “capstone” amphibious exercise suggests that People’s Liberation Army (PLA) training and preparations for a future Taiwan campaign are becoming more focused, realistic, and sophisticated.

Center for Statecraft and Naval Security – The study finds that we are in a period of strategic warning time on Taiwan and that the risk of serious escalation around the Strait of Taiwan is a real possibility well within a ten‑year timeframe.

USNI News – Beijing’s newest and largest aircraft carrier is expected to achieve full operational readiness this year, Chinese state media reported when highlighting the rapid progress of the country’s carrier program and naval aviation developments.