– National Interest – The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) numerous, increasingly advanced cruise missiles have attracted far less attention than its ballistic missiles—yet their impact on regional security, deterrence, and potential military operations may be similar in magnitude. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has limited itself severely in both the type and quantity of its own anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs). It is therefore simply amazing that such a formidable set of weapons has generated so little open source analysis; indeed that may be precisely part of its appeal for China. This article attempts to rectify this surprising foreign neglect by surveying PRC cruise missile programs and their implications for broader People’s Liberation Army (PLA) capabilities, especially in a Taiwan scenario—although they can also have significant impact elsewhere on China’s increasingly contested maritime periphery.

– USNI News – Chinese officials are claiming the U.S. is stoking international discord over a disputed drilling operation in an area of the South China Sea in territory claimed by both China and Vietnam, according to a Tuesday statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

– War is Boring – One photo at a time, Beijing’s military-industrial-media complex is slowly showing the world the Chinese navy’s giant future warship, the Type 055.

– Real Clear Defense – China’s carrier plans target US alliances, not the US Navy.

– War is Boring – China has begin installing sensitive hydrophones on the floor of the China Seas in an effort to detect and track submarines belonging to the U.S. and its allies.

– War is Boring – Beijing prepares its fifth missile submarine.

– Reuters – Chinese patrols enforcing disputed new fishing rules in the South China Sea are apprehending foreign boats on a weekly basis.

– War is Boring – In late January, Chinese Internet forums highlighted what appeared to be the latest addition to China’s burgeoning carrier air wing. Although conspicuously watermarked, the photo clearly showed a sub-hunting version of the Changhe Z-8 helicopter.

– Washington Times – The U.S. is leading the largest multinational military exercise in the Asia-Pacific region, and Chinese media are hailing Beijing’s first-time participation in the annual drill as proof that the communist nation’s “regional military impact” cannot be ignored.

– The Diplomat – A lot of Chinese hardware could challenge US primacy in the Pacific. Carriers are not among them.

– War is Boring – The bad news first. The People’s Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing. Now the good news. China is wrong—and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America’s nuclear-powered submarines.

– USNI News – China is set to deploy submarines sometime this year armed with nuclear tipped missiles capable of striking Alaska or Hawaii, according to a January assessment from the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI).

– Defense News – Experts on China’s Navy are sounding cautionary tones after news surfaced last week that China is reportedly constructing a second aircraft carrier.

– USNI News – China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has designs on a force of four aircraft carriers, according to statements from Chinese officials in Chinese state media that were later deleted.

– Reuters – China will base a 5,000-tonne civilian patrol ship on one of the main islands it controls in the disputed South China Sea and begin regular patrols, a move likely to add fuel to territorial disputes with neighbors.

– Defense Week – China will retake the Diaoyu Islands along with the Ryukyu island chain from Japan in the East China Sea and seize the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea within the next 30 to 40 years, according to an editorial published in July by the Chinese-language Wen Wei Po newspaper. “Six Wars China is Sure to Fight in the Next 50 Years” suggests China fight a war with Vietnam over the South China Sea, place troops on the Spratly Islands and build ports, and intimidate others who “dare to challenge Chinese domination.”

– Aviation Week – A decade of boots-on-the-ground warfare in the Middle East does not, in late December, appear to have done much to spread democracy or tolerance across the region or indeed to quell the sources of terrorism. Syria, Libya and Egypt waver between rule by more or less secular strongmen and takeover by Islamic radicals. Overwatch by fighters, helicopters and surface-to-air missiles is now a routine feature of global sporting events as well as G20 meetings. On the other side of the globe, however, tensions are reminding many observers of the machinations that preceded previous industrial-age wars such as World War 1. China’s declaration of an air defense identification zone was remarkable not so much for its direct impact as for the fact that it took observers by surprise.

– The Diplomat – China’s Far Seas presence enables it to escort Syria’s chemical weapons marked for destruction.

– War is Boring – Snapshots reveal badly-needed new engine and refueling pod.

– War is Boring – …but impressive images include hints of naval limitations…

– National Interest – The U.S. National Intelligence Council forecasts that China will become the world’s largest economy (measured by purchasing-power parity) in 2022. Jane’s predicts that by 2015 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) funding will double to $238 billion, surpassing that of NATO’s eight largest militaries after the United States combined. The International Institute for Strategic Studies says that China’s defense spending might surpass America’s as early as 2025. Even if these projections prove exaggerated, economic, technical and industrial activity of an amazing scope and intensity is already affording China potent military capabilities. This is especially the case when such capabilities are applied—most likely through peacetime deterrence, or a limited skirmish with a neighbor such as Vietnam—to the “near seas” (the Yellow, East China and South China Seas), currently a major Chinese strategic focus.

Allowing Beijing to use force, or even the threat of force, to alter the regional status quo would have a number of pernicious effects. It would undermine the functioning of the most vibrant portion of the global commons—sea and air mediums that all nations rely on for trade and prosperity, but that none own. It would undermine important international norms and encourage the application of force to more of the world’s many persistent disputes. Finally, it would threaten to destabilize a region haunted by history that has prospered during nearly seven decades of U.S. forces helping to preserve peace. No other nation has the capability and lack of territorial claims necessary to play this still-vital role.

A number of strategists appear to believe that America faces the threat of conflict with China in the future, but that it can be avoided through accommodation or prepared for over a protracted period. In fact, a different scenario is more likely: even as the two Pacific powers are sufficiently interdependent to avoid direct hostilities—and share significant interests on which they may cooperate increasingly—China is already beginning to pose its greatest challenge to U.S. influence and interests in the Asia-Pacific.

– US Naval Institute Proceedings – Imperial Japan’s plan for fighting the U.S. Navy before World War II and contemporary China’s maritime area-denial tactics share remarkable similarities.

– War is Boring – The first of China’s four giant hovercraft has been spotted conducting trials on the Pearl River in the country’s south. Meanwhile, hovercraft number two is being assembled in nearby Guangzhou. It’s not hard to see why Beijing is spending a reported $300 million on the four Zubr-class hovercraft—two built in Ukraine and two in Guangzhou. Able to speed a distance of 300 miles in six hours while carrying eight armored vehicles or 500 marines apiece, the 187-foot-long Zubrs will help Beijing back up its once-empty threat to invade Taiwan in the event the island nation ever formally declares independence from the mainland.

– US Naval Institute Proceedings – Sea control in the Indo-Pacific is a top priority for both the United States and China—and the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s maritime capabilities are steadily evolving.

– National Interest – To ensure that Beijing cannot use force—or the threat of force—to change the status quo in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. must maintain military capabilities that will deter any threatening or aggressive actions by China—even as they cooperate in areas of shared interest. At a minimum, the U.S. must continue to prevent force from being used to resolve Asia-Pacific disputes and cooperate where it can until Beijing embraces the mutual efforts required for the two Pacific powers to achieve durable, if frequently or even continuously competitive, coexistence. To ensure this, the U.S. should demonstrate the capability to deny China the ability to seize and hold disputed territories. Given the inherent defensiveness of the U.S. approach, it should be possible to meet core objectives at an affordable price through the most critical timeframe—likely over the coming decade—with a bottom-line strategy of deterrence by denial.