– Wall Street Journal – After 500 years of Western predominance, Niall Ferguson argues, the world is tilting back to the East.

– The Australian – Robert D. Kaplan says that the Indian Ocean is set to be the central theatre of conflict and rivalry for the US, China and India.

– Reuters – In the Indian Ocean, international warships keep watch against Somali pirates, but in the long run, newly arrived forces from India, China, Russia and elsewhere may be as much rivals as allies.

– Wall Street Journal – Beijing is moving aggressively to counter the U.S. ability to project power in Asia. Its goal: bring our allies under its sway.

– New York Times – When three Chinese scientists plunged to the bottom of the South China Sea in a tiny submarine early this summer, they did more than simply plant their nation’s flag on the dark seabed.

– BBC – Canada is staking its claim to Arctic waterways and mineral resources – as are Russia, the US, Norway and other regional powers. All are meeting in Moscow this week in an attempt to head off an international dispute.

– BBC – The pace of diplomacy over the division of the Arctic is speeding up, with Russia making the running.

– Geopolitics / Arctic – Nuclear Power – Could the Arctic become a battleground over control of large reserves of oil and gas thought to lie under the Arctic Sea, or will there be co-operation in the polar region? This will be a question for politicians and experts from around the world as they meet in Moscow.

– Wall Street Journal – A bloc of countries above the 45th parallel is poised to dominate the next century. Welcome to the New North.

– Miami Herald – General Anthony Zinni writes that a recent study by the Center for a New American Security examined how environmental degradation, poverty, migration, conflict, weak societal institutions and failed states form a feedback loop. It found that loss of “green” natural resources, such as forests, fresh water, fish and fertile soils, can play a significant role in driving instability and conflict.

– The Atlantic – The Iranian nuclear threat will soon come to a head. A preemptive attack by Israel could be disastrous. It might happen anyway.

– New Yorker – Talking to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—and the opposition—about Iran today.

Defense Technology International – Arming the Arctic

The environmental changes occurring in the Arctic are as dramatic as they are significant for security cooperation and competition among Arctic nations. With the polar ice cap receding 25 percent since 1978, vast tracts of unexplored ocean rich with natural resources are opening up. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the Arctic contains over 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and some 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids—of which the USGS estimates a whopping 84 percent may wait “offshore.”

New York Times Magazine – Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan?

In Yemen, Al Qaeda may have found the perfect combination of tribal hospitality, chaos and military opportunity.

Armed Forces Journal – Ice breaker

While the science community debates whether global warming is fact or fraud, this much is certain: The Navy will soon sail uncharted waters — and it won’t be a pleasure cruise.

Edmonton Journal – Uneasy passage: The Northwest Passage is central to Canadian identity, yet its future remains uncertain

Though few Canadians have ever sailed it, the Northwest Passage strikes a resonant chord in this country. These feelings stem from a romantic passion for the North, as well as from practical reasons involving sovereignty and control over Arctic waters and resources.

Armed Forces Journal – Polar frontiers

A new Arctic age is emerging. New forces are transforming the very fabric of the entire region. Some of these changes will positively benefit those people who call the region home, while some will have negative impacts. Decision-makers in the Arctic nations will need to be increasingly mindful of these changes and need to develop policies that are innovative, proactive and intelligent.

Big Think – Interview With Niall Ferguson

An insightful interview with Niall Ferguson in which he describes the West’s “Killer Apps.” You can watch the video or read the transcript in the scrolling box underneath it.

Vancouver Sun – Q&A with Niall Ferguson

Excellent question and answer session with Niall Ferguson, particularly in regards to the rise of the East versus the decline of the West.

New York Times – For Greece’s Economy, Geography Was Destiny

Robert D. Kaplan looks at the geography of the Greek economic crisis.

New York Times – The Geography of Chinese Power

Robert D. Kaplan writes that China’s blessed geography is so obvious a point that it tends to get overlooked in discussions of the country’s economic dynamism and national assertiveness. Yet it is essential: It means that China will stand at the hub of geopolitics even if the country’s path toward global power is not necessarily linear.

Economist – New Silk Roads

Since the Silk Road fell into disuse six centuries ago, Asian commerce has been carried not by land but by sea along coasts and island chains, first on monsoon winds and now in the holds of diesel ships. The story of Asia’s post-war miracle is above all a maritime one…The miracle is inconceivable without the ship-borne container…The broad lines of Asian security mirror this watery theme. Since the Pacific War of 1941-45, the United States has enforced a Pax Americana through naval strength and a perimeter of island allies, from Australia to Japan. If American dominance is challenged, it will be at sea. The rise of China and India as military powers has been marked by a large increase in their navies…But Anthony Bubalo and Malcolm Cook of the Lowy Institute in Sydney argue in The American Interest that such a perspective is bumping up against the limits of usefulness.

US Naval War College Review – Engaging Oceania

The fourteen island nations of Oceania are weak by any traditional measure of state power. They are mostly small and poor, with zero military muscle and little diplomatic clout. On a map of the Pacific these microstates appear almost like tossed sand, widely dispersed and hardly noticeable in the great blue expanse between the Western Hemisphere, Asia, and Australia. But the small size and gross domestic products of these states conceal a disproportionate economic, political, and military potential.

Los Angeles Times – America, the fragile empire

Niall Ferguson asks what if history is not cyclical and slow-moving but arrhythmic — at times almost stationary but also capable of accelerating suddenly, like a sports car? What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly, like a thief in the night?

Wall Street Journal – U.K. and Argentina Spar Over Claim to Falkland Islands

Britain said it “firmly rejects” a new Argentine law that defines the Falkland Islands, over which the countries fought a war in 1982, as part of its territory.