US Naval War College Review – A version of Jomini’s campaigning theory, in combination with maritime special-operations capabilities, offers a convincing maritime approach for contesting Russia’s malign activity in Europe while remaining below the level of armed conflict and supporting a broader conventional effort to prepare a war-fighting environment by using irregular warfare to secure advantages prior to conflicts.
US Naval War College Review – Sea powers have many handicaps that often are forgotten, resulting in a dangerous overestimation of their safety, influence, and staying power in a competitive world. A more clear-eyed assessment of sea power—one less enamored of the grandeur associated with naval might—reveals that often their hopes were unwarranted and ended up having tragic results.
US Naval War College Review – As the world shifts away from the global war on terrorism toward renewed great-power rivalry, areas previously considered strategically peripheral offer the United States and its allies both opportunity and challenge. Papua New Guinea (PNG), with its strategic location in the southwest Pacific, is poised to play a role in this new “Great Game.”
Congressional Research Service – China has emerged as the world’s largest exploiter of fisheries on a global, not just regional, scale. Chinese fleets are active in waters far from China’s shores, and the growth in their harvests threatens to worsen the already dire depletion in global fisheries. China leads the world in seafood production from aquaculture, inland (freshwater) fisheries, and marine fisheries. The expansion and modernization of fisheries is a key part of China’s broader industrial policy goals of upgrading their agricultural industries and improving domestic food security. China has developed the world’s largest fishing fleet of vessels operating in domestic and neighboring coastal inshore and offshore areas, as well as a distant-water fleet (DWF) active in many parts of the world. China is a major hub for value-added processing in seafood supply chains and it is the world’s largest seafood processor; much of what China processes is exported to other countries. China is also the largest importer and producer of fishmeal for use in aquaculture. The magnitude of China’s seafood production and consumption has implications for international trade, fisheries conservation and management, and allocation of fishery resources among fishing and coastal nations. Many in Congress are interested in China’s involvement in fisheries around the world because of efforts to conserve marine resources globally, and the fishing industry’s intersection with regional conflicts and transnational criminal activities that impact U.S. national security.
BBC – Late last week, a proposed security treaty between China and a tiny chain of islands in the Pacific sent shock waves across the ocean.
Naval News – Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, revealed that all countries have been warned not to transit warships through the straits. The decision which was made during a Turkish cabinet meeting today closes the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits to all military vessels…
Defense News – There’s only one way in and out of the Black Sea.
Naval News – Following Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s main cities, Vasyl Bodnar, Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey, asked Turkey to close the straits to Russian ships in favor of Ukraine. Is it possible to do so in accordance with the Montreux Convention?
CIMSEC – For centuries, merchant vessels have passed from the Indian Ocean to Eastern Asia through a small waterway nestled inside Southeast Asia. The Strait of Malacca (SoM) is the Strait south of the Malay Peninsula through which passes over a quarter of the world’s trade.
BBC – The government of Mauritius has accused Britain of “crimes against humanity” and urged it to bow to international law and surrender control of the disputed Chagos Islands, ahead of a historic visit to the archipelago by a government-chartered boat. Our Africa correspondent Andrew Harding reports from on board the boat.
The Spectator – Mark Galeotti opines on the recent meeting between the two leaders.
War on the Rocks – All Pacific Island countries face natural and human security threats. At the moment, U.S. engagement among these countries is uneven at best.
PBS Frontline – Journalist and author Ahmed Rashid’s interview for the PBS Frontline documentary “America After 9/11”
PBS Frontline – Journalist and historian Thomas Ricks’ interview for the PBS Frontline documentary “America After 9/11”
PBS Frontline – Transcript from an excellent documentary.
From veteran FRONTLINE filmmaker and chronicler of U.S. politics Michael Kirk and his team, this documentary traces the U.S. response to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the devastating consequences that unfolded across four presidencies.
Drawing on both new interviews and those from the dozens of documentaries Kirk and his award-winning team made in the years after 9/11, this two-hour special offers an epic re-examination of the decisions that changed the world and transformed America. From the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to the January 6 insurrection, America After 9/11 exposes the legacy of September 11 — and the ongoing challenge it poses for the president and the country.
Paul Mason – Ten concepts to understand what happens if Russia attacks Ukraine – an excellent analysis of the situation.
War on the Rocks – Excellent analysis of the situation in the Ukraine by Michael Kofman of the CNA.
US Naval War College Review – The geopolitics of the twenty-first century will look very different from that of the twentieth century, but does that mean that the lessons of the latter do not apply to the former? Will competition for oil be eclipsed by that for rare earth metals or lithium, such that the form but not the substance will change? Or does the possibility of achieving self-sufficiency in energy consumption through renewables offer an alternative to interstate resource competition or interdependence? Most importantly, does the challenge of climate change compel Americans to rethink their rivalry with China? Reading “The New Map” will stimulate thinking along these lines, but doing so is only the first step.
USNI News – The Department of Defense on Monday announced the completion of its Global Posture Review, which offers few changes in force lay down and includes a series of previously announced troop movements.
CIMSEC – In conclusion, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue should focus the combined diplomatic, information, military, and economic power of its four member nations to promote maritime security in the Indo-Pacific by fostering and strengthening rising partners in the region while coordinating to detect, analyze, and interdict illicit maritime activity.
CIMSEC – Challenging threats to the rules-based order, no matter where they originate, is vitally important; but the United States also must cooperate with its adversaries, especially China and Russia, to secure the global commons and tackle other transnational threats, such as climate change and global pandemics.
The Strategy Bridge – While much analysis has focused on how fishing and other related maritime resource disputes play into great power competition and the national security implications for the U.S., comparatively little analysis has focused on the impacts of any disruption of not only the Chinese fishing fleet but China’s international food imports in the event of a Pacific conflict. Although China remains more vulnerable than the U.S. to food disruption in such a scenario, the ripple effects of a Pacific war will force China, regional actors, and even the U.S. to carefully manage national food policies, with drastic consequences should their attempts fail. In a future Pacific conflict, food policy and management by all parties is, to paraphrase Sir Michael Howard, a likely root of either victory or defeat for any unprepared participants.
The Atlantic – A cold war is already under way. The question is whether Washington can deter Beijing from initiating a hot one.
USNI Proceedings – What happens at sea will determine what happens on land across the region.
Modern War Institute – Political and defense leadership among the world’s most powerful democracies is coming to terms with the rise of China and what it means for our shared future. The United States, NATO, and Asian democracies should collectively harden infrastructure and supply chains to prepare for a generations-long standoff with an ambitious China that acts with strategic foresight and intends to increase its global influence and force projection.