– National Interest – A surprisingly optimistic global strategic assessment from Robert D. Kaplan and his brother.

– Newsweek – Niall Ferguson writes that most rebellions end in carnage and tyranny. So why are Americans cheering on the Arab revolutionary wave?

– Daily Telegraph – For 500 years Western civilisation was full of self-belief, but now, historian Niall Ferguson argues its dominance is coming to an end.

– Washington Post – Robert D. Kaplan writes that with the toppling of autocratic regimes in Egypt and Tunisia – and other Arab dictators, such as Libya’s, on the ropes – some have euphorically announced the arrival of democracy in the Middle East. But something more subtle may develop.

– New York Times – Thomas Friedman on just how difficult a democratic transition will be for the Middle East.

– Newsweek – Niall Ferguson on Obama’s Egypt debacle and the vacuum it exposes.

– Esquire – Thomas P. M. Barnett on why the “China Century” will be the shortest on record

– New York Times – Robert D. Kaplan writes that the West stands captivated by Tunisia, where a month of peaceful protests by secular working- and middle-class Arabs has toppled a dictator, raising hopes that this North African country of 10 million will set off democracy movements throughout a region of calcified dictatorships. But before we envision a new Middle East remade in the manner of Europe 1989, it is worth cataloguing the pivotal ways in which Tunisia is unique.

– The Diplomat – Maritime strategy seems increasingly focused on the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. It risks leaving the Navy vulnerable in the Pacific.

– New York Review of Books – Ahmed Rashid writes on the current situation in Tajikistan.

– Washington Post – Robert D. Kaplan mourns the end of the American Empire.

– Foreign Policy – An interview with Robert D. Kaplan on his new book Monsoon.

– Wall Street Journal – After 500 years of Western predominance, Niall Ferguson argues, the world is tilting back to the East.

– The Australian – Robert D. Kaplan says that the Indian Ocean is set to be the central theatre of conflict and rivalry for the US, China and India.

– Reuters – In the Indian Ocean, international warships keep watch against Somali pirates, but in the long run, newly arrived forces from India, China, Russia and elsewhere may be as much rivals as allies.

– Wall Street Journal – Beijing is moving aggressively to counter the U.S. ability to project power in Asia. Its goal: bring our allies under its sway.

– New York Times – When three Chinese scientists plunged to the bottom of the South China Sea in a tiny submarine early this summer, they did more than simply plant their nation’s flag on the dark seabed.

– BBC – Canada is staking its claim to Arctic waterways and mineral resources – as are Russia, the US, Norway and other regional powers. All are meeting in Moscow this week in an attempt to head off an international dispute.

– BBC – The pace of diplomacy over the division of the Arctic is speeding up, with Russia making the running.

– Geopolitics / Arctic – Nuclear Power – Could the Arctic become a battleground over control of large reserves of oil and gas thought to lie under the Arctic Sea, or will there be co-operation in the polar region? This will be a question for politicians and experts from around the world as they meet in Moscow.

– Wall Street Journal – A bloc of countries above the 45th parallel is poised to dominate the next century. Welcome to the New North.

– Miami Herald – General Anthony Zinni writes that a recent study by the Center for a New American Security examined how environmental degradation, poverty, migration, conflict, weak societal institutions and failed states form a feedback loop. It found that loss of “green” natural resources, such as forests, fresh water, fish and fertile soils, can play a significant role in driving instability and conflict.

– The Atlantic – The Iranian nuclear threat will soon come to a head. A preemptive attack by Israel could be disastrous. It might happen anyway.

– New Yorker – Talking to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—and the opposition—about Iran today.

Defense Technology International – Arming the Arctic

The environmental changes occurring in the Arctic are as dramatic as they are significant for security cooperation and competition among Arctic nations. With the polar ice cap receding 25 percent since 1978, vast tracts of unexplored ocean rich with natural resources are opening up. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the Arctic contains over 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and some 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids—of which the USGS estimates a whopping 84 percent may wait “offshore.”