Foreign Affairs – The United States’ unipolar moment is over. International relations in the twenty-first century will be defined by nonpolarity. Power will be diffuse rather than concentrated, and the decline as that of nonstate actors increases. But this is not all bad news for the United States; Washington can still manage the transition and make the world a safer place.
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Foreign Affairs – Even critics of Hugo Ch·vez tend to concede that he has made helping the poor his top priority. But in fact, Ch·vez’s government has not done any more to fight poverty than past Venezuelan governments, and his much-heralded social programs have had little effect. A close look at the evidence reveals just how much Ch·vez’s “revolution” has hurt Venezuela’s economy — and that the poor are hurting most of all.
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Spero – An essay summarizing Robert Kaplan’s keynote address at Foreign Policy Research Instituteís Fourth Annual Partners Brunch.
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New York Times – Niall Ferguson review’s Philip Bobbitt’s new book, entitled “The Wars for the Twenty-First Century.”
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The Atlantic – Robert Kaplan writes that Calcutta has been renamed. Now, with investment on the rise, tech companies moving in, and a growing middle class, can it be reborn?
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Foreign Affairs – Americans generally belittle the role of ethnic nationalism in politics. But in fact, it corresponds to some enduring propensities of the human spirit, it is galvanized by modernization, and in one form or another, it will drive global politics for generations to come. Once ethnic nationalism has captured the imagination of groups in a multiethnic society, ethnic disaggregation or partition is often the least bad answer.
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Foreign Affairs – Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless Washington leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict.
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New York Times – Robert Kaplan on the future of NATO.
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Foreign Affairs – A climate of fear and a sense of powerlessness caused by the threats of terrorism and natural disasters are undermining American ideals and fueling political demagoguery. Rebuilding the resilience of American society is the way to reverse this and respond to today’s challenges.
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The Atlantic – Robert Kaplan writes that with rising Islamic fundamentalism, weak government, and not enough dry land for its 150 million people, Bangladesh could use a break. Instead, it must face the catastrophic threat of climate change.
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The Atlantic – James Fallows writes that the Chinese are subsidizing the American way of life. Are we playing them for suckers – or are they playing us?
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Foreign Affairs – China’s rise will inevitably bring the United States’ unipolar moment to an end. But that does not necessarily mean a violent power struggle or the overthrow of the Western system. The U.S.-led international order can remain dominant even while integrating a more powerful China — but only if Washington sets about strengthening that liberal order now.
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New York Times Magazine – Just a few years ago, Americaís hold on global power seemed unshakable. But a lot has changed while weíve been in Iraq ó and the next president is going to be dealing with not only a triumphant China and a retooled Europe but also the quiet rise of a ë”second world.”
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Financial Times – Niall Ferguson writes: Has the democratic wave broken? Is the tide of political freedom now ebbing after the spectacular flow that began in 1989? Recent events on nearly every continent certainly give real cause for concern to those who dream of a world governed by the ballot box rather than the bullet. But they may also provide an overdue opportunity to think more realistically about the way the process of democratisation works.
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Foreign Affairs – A growing conventional wisdom holds that Vladimir Putin’s attack on democracy has brought Russia stability and prosperity — providing a new model of successful market authoritarianism. But the correlation between autocracy and economic growth is spurious. Autocracy’s effects in Russia have in fact been negative. Whatever the gains under Putin, they would have been greater under a democratic regime.
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Foreign Affair – The Bush administration wants to contain Iran by rallying the support of Sunni Arab states and now sees Iran’s containment as the heart of its Middle East policy: a way to stabilize Iraq, declaw Hezbollah, and restart the Arab-Israeli peace process. But the strategy is unsound and impractical, and it will probably further destabilize an already volatile region.
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New York Times Magazine – Pakistanís younger Islamic militants are bringing the jihad waged in Afghanistan back home: breaking with senior mullahs, renouncing elections and killing police officers, soldiers and, perhaps, Benazir Bhutto.
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Foreign Affairs – Is China democratizing? The country’s leaders do not think of democracy as people in the West generally do, but they are increasingly backing local elections, judicial independence, and oversight of Chinese Communist Party officials. How far China’s liberalization will ultimately go and what Chinese politics will look like when it stops are open questions.
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Baker Center Journal of Applied Public Policy – Thomas P.M. Barnett writes that the way forward in the Long War is with the Chinese:

In this so-called long war against the global jihadist movement, the Bush administrationís greatest failure has been its lack of strategic imagination. It has added the right enemies to our to-do list, but failed to enlist the necessary new allies, giving our people the misperception that itís America against the world.

This need not be the case. Our natural allies are now located on the frontiers of globalization, or among the three billion-plus new capitalists who joined global markets over the last generation, chiefly among them the Chinese.

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American Interest – Robert D. Kaplan writes “Some truths are so obvious that to mention them in polite company seems either pointless or rude. What is left unstated, however, can with time be forgotten. Both of these observations apply today to the American way of war. It is obvious that a military can only fight well on behalf of a society in which it believes, and that a society which believes little is worth fighting for cannot, in the end, field an effective military. Obvious as this is, we seem to have forgotten it.”
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Foreign Affairs – Pundits, academics, and Bush bashers insist that the United States is losing ground in Asia, but they are wrong. The Bush administration’s Asia policy has been an unheralded success. Improved relations with China, stronger U.S.-Japanese cooperation, North Korea’s gradual nuclear disarmament, and expanding regional alliances have made Asia more prosperous and secure than it has been in decades.
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Foreign Affairs – After 60 years of U.S. domination, the balance of power in Northeast Asia is shifting. The United States is in relative decline, China is on the rise, and Japan and South Korea are in flux. To maintain U.S. power in the region, Washington must identify the trends shaping this transition and embrace new tools and regimes that broaden the United States’ power base.
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Foreign Affairs – The United States now spends almost as much on defense in real dollars as it ever has before — even though it has no plausible rationale for using most of its impressive military forces. Why? Because without political incentives for restraint, policymakers have lost the ability to think clearly about defense policy. Washington’s new mantra should be “Half a trillion dollars is more than enough.”
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The Atlantic – Robert Kaplan says that quelling anarchy in Iraq, Pakistan, and elsewhere, will require building on tribal loyalties-not imposing democracy from the top down
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The Atlantic – Robert Kaplan says the creation of AFRICOM, the U.S. military’s new Africa Command, offers the hope of steady, low-key progress in the war on terror.
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