Naval War College Review – Southeast Asia has responded to the maritime dangers that in the 1990s replaced Cold War rivalries, and the terrorist threat that has more recently stepped to the forefront, producing an unprecedented degree of “operationalized” interstate cooperation. Fundamental obstacles remain, but the underlying dynamics are promising.
Category Archives: Geopolitics
Geopolitics – The Power Brokers
Foreign Affairs – In Running the World, David Rothkopf provides page after page of raw material on the history and workings of the National Security Council. Unfortunately, the information is not matched by much rigorous analysis.
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Geopolitics / Taiwan – Taiwan : Melos or Pylos?
Naval War College Review – If taken to heart, lessons of the Peloponnesian War could help clarify thinkingóand dispel dangerous illusionsóin Taipei, Beijing, and Washington. The island of Melos learned the futility of unsupported resistance against overwhelming factors of force and geography; the Athenians and Spartans learned at Pylos expensive lessons about the difficulties of island campaigning and about the unpredictability of warfare as a policy.
Geopolitics / China – In China's Own Eyes
Foreign Affairs – The Man Who Changed China, a state-sanctioned portrait of Jiang Zemin, reflects the image that China’s new leaders want their people to see: pragmatic, moderate, and above politics. The vision, however, does not often match reality.
Geopolitics / Oil – The Breaking Point
New York Times Magazine – The United States and China are counting on the Saudis to satisfy our growing thirst for oil. The Saudis say they can supply all our needs. Critics say that that is becoming impossible. They just might turn out to be right.
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Geopolitics – When Is Coercion Successful? And Why Can't We Agree on It?
Naval War College Review – The scholarly controversy over coercion by states-military, diplomatic, and economic-does more than complicate academic arguments; it has consequences for policy. It might become a more effective instrument than it has so far proved if the theoretical community can reach consensus as to what it is, how it can be effectively applied, and what constitutes success.
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Geopolitics / Terrorism – Counterterrorism in Retrospect
Foreign Affairs – A new history of the United States’ pre-September 11 efforts to combat terrorism portrays them as marked by myopia, indecision, and diffidence.
Geopolitics / Disease – Preparing for the Next Pandemic
Foreign Affairs – If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors.
Geopolitics – Regime Change and Its Limits
Foreign Affairs – So far, the Bush administration has shown it would like to resolve its problems with North Korea and Iran the same way it did with Iraq: through regime change. It is easy to see why. But the strategy is unlikely to work, at least not quickly enough. A much broader approach — involving talks, sanctions, and the threat of force — is needed.
Geopolitics / Islam – A Crescent Over Europe?
Air Force – Demographic change could turn the heartland of Western culture into an Islamic redoubt.
Geopolitics / Terrorism – Terrorism and the New Security Dilemma
Naval War College Review – The reliability of interstate balances of power is declining; the capacity of the ìstates systemî to provide security is deteriorating; the state itself is coming under increasing centrifugal pressure from both outside and inside, from above and from below; and the reshaping of the wider political environment in reaction to complex globalization remains rudimentary and uneven. We can expect substate and cross-border destabilization and violence, including but certainly not confined to terrorism, to become increasingly endemic.
Geopolitics / United Nations – "In Larger Freedom:" Decision Time at the UN
Foreign Affairs – Kofi Annan says dealing with today’s threats requires broad, deep, and sustained global cooperation. Thus the states of the world must create a collective security system to prevent terrorism, strengthen nonproliferation, and bring peace to war-torn areas, while also promoting human rights, democracy, and development. And the UN must go through its most radical overhaul yet.
Geopolitics / Freedom – Who Are Americans to Think That Freedom Is Theirs to Spread?
New York Times – Around the world (and among some critics at home), America’s long-held desire to export liberty and democracy is called hubristic, messianic, imperialistic and worse. But try imagining a world without it???
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Geopolitics / Technology – Down to the Wire
Foreign Affairs – Once a leader in Internet innovation, the United States has fallen far behind Japan and other Asian states in deploying broadband and the latest mobile-phone technology. This lag will cost it dearly. By outdoing the United States, Japan and its neighbors are positioning themselves to be the first states to reap the benefits of the broadband era: economic growth, increased productivity, and a better quality of life.
Geopolitics / Middle East – Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East
Foreign Affairs – Bernard Lewis says to speak of dictatorship as being the immemorial way of doing things in the Middle East is simply untrue. It shows ignorance of the Arab past, contempt for the Arab present, and lack of concern for the Arab future. Creating a democratic political and social order in Iraq or elsewhere in the region will not be easy. But it is possible, and there are increasing signs that it has already begun.
Geopolitics / Pakistan – Musharraf is losing his grip
New York Times – Ahmed Rashid on how Pakistan continues to unravel.
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Geopolitics / Lebanon – The Autumn of the Autocrats
Foreign Affairs – If the assassins of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri sought to make an example of him for his defiance of Syria, the aftermath of the crime has mocked them. For a generation, Lebanon was an appendage of Syrian power. But now the Lebanese people, in an “independence intifada,” are clamoring for a return to normalcy. The old Arab edifice of power has survived many challenges in the past, but something is different this time: the United States is now willing to gamble on freedom.
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Geopolitics / Law – New Rules for War?
Naval War College Review – The overarching factors of asymmetry and moralism dominate the political discourse and frame the understanding of Americans. From those factors emerge specific issues of real ethical concern. Just war principles and the law of armed conflict help, but both leave room for interpretation. Ultimately, these issues require moral reasoning and reflection.
Geopolitics / Media – The Media as an Instrument of War
Parameters – The media, in the modern era, are indisputably an instrument of war. This is because winning modern wars is as much dependent on carrying domestic and international public opinion as it is on defeating the enemy on the battlefield. And it remains true regardless of the aspirations of many journalists to give an impartial and balanced assessment of conflict.
Geopolitics / Iran – Taking on Tehran
Foreign Affairs – If Washington wants to derail Iran’s nuclear program, it must take advantage of a split in Tehran between hard-liners, who care mostly about security, and pragmatists, who want to fix Iran’s ailing economy. By promising strong rewards for compliance and severe penalties for defiance, Washington can strengthen the pragmatists’ case that Tehran should choose butter over bombs.
Geopolitics / Strategy – How Has War Changed Since the End of the Cold War?
Parameters – In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”
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Geopolitics – A New Doctrine for New Wars
Wall Street Journal – In a prescient article originally published shortly after 9/11, former Secretary of the Navy James Webb lays out what might have been and possibly still could be a winning strategy for defeating groups like al-Qa’ida.
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Geopolitics / Central Asia – Democracy is not about to sweep Central Asia
International Herald Tribune – Ahmed Rhasid says democracy will not overtake Central Asia any time soon.
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Geopolitics / Environment – The Choice
Foreign Affairs – Jared Diamond’s Collapse is a catalog of past environmental ruin. But despite the abundance of bad news, its message is one of cautious optimism: if modern society can learn from the failures of its predecessors, it can avoid their fate.
Geopolitics / Israel – Their best defence
The Guardian – According to Martin Van Creveld’s new book, entitled Defending Israel, Israel has no choice but to withdraw from the West Bank – not to indulge the Palestinians but to save itself
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