– US Naval Institute Proceedings – It was a protest chant heard across the nation during the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis. And it echoes into the current age. But actually going to war with Iran may yield some unintended consequences.
– New York Times – Iranian warplanes shot at an American military surveillance drone flying over the Persian Gulf near Iran last week, Pentagon officials disclosed Thursday. They said that the aircraft, a Predator drone, was flying in international airspace and was not hit and that the episode had prompted a strong protest to the Iranian government.
– New Yorker – A look at why Israel’s notorious ex-spymaster, Meir Dagan, has become a dissident against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
– Aviation Week – Evidence is mounting that the U.S. defense community and the Obama administration view 2013 as the likely window for a bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities. It could be earlier, timed to use the chaos of the Syrian government’s fall to disguise such an attack, or later, if international negotiations with Iran stretch out without failing completely. But there is evidence that Iran’s intransigence over shutting down its uranium-enrichment program will not buy it much more time. Because of these shifting factors, military planners and White House advisers are still debating the advisability of a kinetic attack on Iran even though they say that option is ready.
– New Yorker – Seymour Hirsch looks at US covert operations in Iran.
– Defense Media Network – Persian Incursion wargame designer Larry Bond describes strategies that help one side or the other if Israel were to attack Iran.
– Defense Media Network – Excellent discussion by Persian Incursion wargame designer Larry Bond on the points that are routinely missed by the media in any discussion of a potential attack by Israel on Iran.
– New York Times – A classified war simulation held this month to assess the repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to American officials.
– BBC – For all the myriad challenges facing Israel over the past decade it is the potential threat from a nuclear-armed Iran that has preoccupied the country’s military planners.
– The Economist – Nobody should welcome the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. But bombing the place is not the answer.
– Economist – The probability of an attack on Iran’s nuclear programme has been increasing. But the chances of it ending the country’s nuclear ambitions are low
– New York Times – Should Israel decide to launch a strike on Iran, its pilots would have to fly more than 1,000 miles across unfriendly airspace, refuel in the air en route, fight off Iran’s air defenses, attack multiple underground sites simultaneously — and use at least 100 planes.
– International Institute For Strategic Studies – Could Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, or significantly hinder traffic passing through it? A recent decision by the European Union to impose a total embargo on the purchase of Iranian oil has prompted threats from Tehran to close the world’s most important oil chokepoint. However, an assessment of military capabilities deployed in the area, and of probable tactics, suggests that Iran would find it difficult or unpalatable to cause major disruption.
(Thanks to Worda for the link!)
– New York Times Magazine – For the first time since the Iranian nuclear threat emerged, the conditions for an Israeli assault have been met.
– Washington Post – According to David Ignatius, the Iran nuclear crisis is far from over, but Tehran appears to have made a subtle blink — backing away from its threat a few weeks ago to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to escalating U.S. sanctions.
– The Guardian – British officials consider contingency options to back up a possible US action as fears mount over Tehran’s capability
US Naval War College Review – US Naval Options For Influencing Iran
This article is intended to explore the range of options the U.S.Navy can provide to policymakers in developing a strategic approach to Iran.
New York Times – The Green Revolution(s)
Thomas Friedman describes how to undermine the the Iranian regime, using the same strategy that undermined the Soviet Union…
Washington Post – Iran’s Struggle, and Ours
Robert D. Kaplan’s analysis of the current situation in Iran.
New York Times Magazine – Stuart Levey’s War
How an unassuming Treasury under secretary is implementing innovative sanctions on Iran that could finally give Washington what it hasn’t had in Tehran in three decades: influence.
New Yorker – Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sourcesÖ
New York Times – Admiral Fallon’s first interview since his early retirement.
Washington Post – Thomas Ricks weighs in on Admiral Fallon’s resignation???
New York Times – Admiral William J. Fallon, the top American commander in the Middle East whose views on Iran and other issues have seemed to put him at odds with the Bush administration, is retiring early.
Esquire – Thomas P.M. Barnett’s latest on Admiral Fox Fallon:
As head of U. S. Central Command, Admiral William “Fox” Fallon is in charge of American military strategy for the most troubled parts of the world. Now, as the White House has been escalating the war of words with Iran, and seeming ever more determined to strike militarily before the end of this presidency, the admiral has urged restraint and diplomacy. Who will prevail, the president or the admiral?