Below the Threshold Deterrence, Philippine Style

War on the Rocks – Manila is implementing a deterrence posture that imposes reputational costs to China for its use of “gray-zone tactics” in the South China Sea. We use the term gray-zone tactics to define “a strategic approach that operates between conventional warfare and peacetime competition.” The Philippines’ “below-the-threshold” approach to deterrence uses non-military means to impose costs, limiting the risk of escalation while establishing credible threats. Reportedly, Manila has integrated transparency initiatives as a component of its January 2024 Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept.

Archipelago of Resistance – The Philippines is Rising to Meet the China Threat But It Has a Crucial Year Ahead

War on the Rocks – Of all the flashpoints facing the Trump administration on Jan. 20, 2025, China’s campaign of intimidation and maritime occupation in the South China Sea may prove the most concerning for U.S. interests and preventing war in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing has spent decades occupying, building, and militarizing islands in those resource-rich waters through which trillions of dollars of trade pass annually. China’s incessant maritime incursions have ignored the sovereignty of its neighbors, violated international law, and given it strategic footholds for exercising political, economic, and military leverage. The aggressiveness of China’s expansionism has spiked in the last 18 months, with the Philippines as the focal point of its ire. Beijing’s timing is not coincidental. The Philippines, a mutual defense treaty ally of the United States, is entering a pivotal 12-month period in which a convergence of critical issues promises seismic implications for not only its national security, defense, and foreign policy trajectory but also its internal stability. As Beijing has pushed the region to the brink, it has dragged the Philippines to center stage. 

Deterring China’s Salami Tactics

Center for Maritime Security – Aside from statements reaffirming American commitment to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the U.S. response has thus far been hollow. This sends the signal that “gray zone” aggression against Philippine sovereignty will go unpunished. To help avoid a repeat of Scarborough Shoal at the Second Thomas Shoal, the United States must go beyond rhetoric and stand with its ally by imposing meaningful material costs on Beijing in response to Chinese escalation. 

Countering Chinese Aggression in the South China Sea

War on the Rocks – The agreement this past weekend, will purportedly allow the Philippines to temporarily conduct resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre without militarized interference, while China maintains its claim that the atoll is firmly within Chinese territorial water. As the text of this agreement has yet to be made public, we cannot firmly say how these gains were won, but it is possible that the recent strengthening of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, or even explicit offers from the United States to assist in defending the atoll have caused China to reconsider its aggressive stance. However, agreements with China built on détente have historically failed to achieve their goals. If recent history is any guide, the best way to avoid a further escalation of the conflict in the South China Sea is to make clear that Beijing cannot conquer the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone at anything like an acceptable cost.

The United States Should ‘Operation Paul Bunyan’ the Second Thomas Shoal​

Center for Maritime Strategy – Washington should immediately partner with Manila to stage an overwhelming show of force in the waters around Second Thomas Shoal to ward off Chinese interference in efforts to resupply the Sierra Madre garrison. Doing so would send a clear message to Beijing that its smaller neighbors do not stand alone in the face of China’s maritime aggression. 

Philippine Sailor Severely Injured, Vessels Damaged as Chinese Block South China Sea Mission

USNI News – A Philippine sailor suffered severe injuries when Chinese forces blocked an Armed Forces of the Philippines resupply mission in the South China Sea, Pentagon officials confirmed to USNI News. The AFP mission to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) outpost at Second Thomas Shoal also resulted in damage to an unknown number of Philippine vessels.