Deterring China’s Salami Tactics

Center for Maritime Security – Aside from statements reaffirming American commitment to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the U.S. response has thus far been hollow. This sends the signal that “gray zone” aggression against Philippine sovereignty will go unpunished. To help avoid a repeat of Scarborough Shoal at the Second Thomas Shoal, the United States must go beyond rhetoric and stand with its ally by imposing meaningful material costs on Beijing in response to Chinese escalation. 

Countering Chinese Aggression in the South China Sea

War on the Rocks – The agreement this past weekend, will purportedly allow the Philippines to temporarily conduct resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre without militarized interference, while China maintains its claim that the atoll is firmly within Chinese territorial water. As the text of this agreement has yet to be made public, we cannot firmly say how these gains were won, but it is possible that the recent strengthening of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, or even explicit offers from the United States to assist in defending the atoll have caused China to reconsider its aggressive stance. However, agreements with China built on détente have historically failed to achieve their goals. If recent history is any guide, the best way to avoid a further escalation of the conflict in the South China Sea is to make clear that Beijing cannot conquer the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone at anything like an acceptable cost.

The United States Should ‘Operation Paul Bunyan’ the Second Thomas Shoal​

Center for Maritime Strategy – Washington should immediately partner with Manila to stage an overwhelming show of force in the waters around Second Thomas Shoal to ward off Chinese interference in efforts to resupply the Sierra Madre garrison. Doing so would send a clear message to Beijing that its smaller neighbors do not stand alone in the face of China’s maritime aggression. 

Philippine Sailor Severely Injured, Vessels Damaged as Chinese Block South China Sea Mission

USNI News – A Philippine sailor suffered severe injuries when Chinese forces blocked an Armed Forces of the Philippines resupply mission in the South China Sea, Pentagon officials confirmed to USNI News. The AFP mission to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) outpost at Second Thomas Shoal also resulted in damage to an unknown number of Philippine vessels.

China’s Gray Zone Tactics Show the US – Philippine Alliance is Working

War on the Rocks – In the coming weeks and months, China is likely to roll out new and creative gray-zone tactics to get the point across that it maintains sovereignty over Second Thomas Shoal. If this happens, then it will only reconfirm the fact that deterrence through the strengthening U.S.-Philippine alliance is actually working. Put a different way, because deterrence is holding, Beijing must reach into its toolkit to find additional coercive gray-zone tactics to stop future resupply missions, short of an armed attack. Rather than view such moves with frustration, Manila and Washington should consider them a victory.