War on the Rocks – In a Taiwan contingency where U.S. forces need to operate from the Sakishimas, Japanese reinforcements will first need to deploy to the islands, secure access off base, and disperse beyond their small garrisons to make room for U.S. forces. These preparations should occur weeks before the cabinet even considers recognizing an armed attack situation, all against the backdrop of crisis management, civil protection, evacuation, and potential refugee flows. Published estimates of a peacetime II 4(b) process range from three months to more than five (timelines U.S. planners in Japan consider optimistic). Without procedural flexibility, the alliance risks falling behind early in a decision sequence that is much longer than often imagined, potentially leaving policymakers with fewer, more disruptive, or more escalatory decisions.