CIMSEC – China and the United States see each other as the pacing challenge, with Taiwan the obvious potential flashpoint. Correspondingly, different governments and think tanks repeatedly featured the Taiwan conflict in wargames. However, results from these studies varied significantly, ranging from swift Taiwanese capitulation and pyrrhic United States victories to bloody Chinese failures. This review compares several studies, explaining differences in the objectives, outcomes, and implications. As such, it is the first review to collate findings from a broad sample of wargames held over eight years between 2016 and 2023. It identifies a clear, regressive trend in the United States and Taiwanese chances of victory over the period and crucial factors influencing the outcomes for the People’s Liberation Army, the Republic of China, the United States, and allied forces. It concludes with recommendations for future wargame iterations.

China Daily – The 46th fleet of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy on Wednesday set sail from a military port in the coastal city of Zhanjiang in south China’s Guangdong Province to take over an escort mission from the 45th naval fleet in the Gulf of Aden and the waters off Somalia.

BBC – Taiwan has accused China’s coast guard of triggering “panic”, after six Chinese officials briefly boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat.

The War Zone – A series of photos have appeared that suggest that a mockup of China’s stealthy J-35 carrier-capable fighter has been used for tests aboard the aircraft carrier Liaoning. As well as indicating further progress in the J-35’s path to a career as a frontline naval fighter, it also raises the possibility of a version of the jet operating from China’s two in-service carriers, which are not equipped with catapult launch gear, instead having ‘ski jump’ ramps. Previously, it had been expected that the J-35 was tailored to serve aboard newer types of carriers, of the kind fitted with catapults as well as arrestor gear.

China Maritime Studies Institute – CMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways:

• In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises.
• Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean engineering and construction industry, constituting an existing and large-scale volume of lift capacity.
• The simple design and relative ease of construction of deck cargo ships means they can quickly be built in large numbers.
• These vessels may be tasked to bring in large columns of logistics and follow-on forces to consolidate landing areas, possibly in waves not far behind landing assault forces.
• Deck cargo ships can distribute the risk for many units making transits and force an adversary to find suitable kill solutions to strike numerous lower value targets.

Global Times – The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and Air Force are extending their reach with new milestones in replenishment ships and large cargo planes, a move experts said on Sunday contributes to not only China’s national defense but also world peace and stability.

BBC – The expected arrival of a Chinese research ship in the Maldives this week has escalated tensions between Beijing, Delhi and Male.

Naval News – A regiment of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN or Chinese Navy)’s Northern Theater Navy (also known as “North Sea Fleet”) has deployed land-based YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) in a drill that took place in the coastal city of Haiyang in Shandong province in China. The move is likely a first and has implications for the strategic Yellow Sea.

Naval News – Speedy progress for program to field a new mid-sized combatant for the People’s Liberation Army Navy.

China Maritime Studies Institute – Since 2018, there have been significant changes to People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine force training, and these changes have been driven by important revisions to strategic guidance and subsequent directives that focused PLA efforts to enhance its capabilities to operate in the maritime domain. While this guidance is applicable to all services, improving PLAN submarine force capabilities appears to have been of particular interest to senior Chinese leadership. This guidance expanded the PLA’s maritime domain requirements, which demanded that China’s submarine force improve its capabilities to operate independently or along with other PLAN assets at greater distances from coast and in the far seas. This has resulted in submarine training that is more realistic, rigorous, and standardized across the fleet. Though stressful on submarine equipment and crews, these changes to training may ultimately yield a more combat-capable submarine fleet operating throughout the western Pacific.

Washington Post – Chinese research vessels with ties to the People’s Liberation Army are conducting sweeping surveys of the undersea floor in the Indian Ocean, collecting data that could be crucial in deploying submarines in a region that is a critical energy supply line for Beijing in the event of a war with Taiwan.

(Thanks to Alain)

Naval News – More amphibious assault capacity, new frigates and aircraft carrier Fujian preparing for first sea trial this year.

War Zone – New official visuals of the carrier released by Chinese state media show it looking close to completion, foreshadowing upcoming sea trials.

Naval News – Territorial tensions in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and East China Sea may occupy headlines, but China has maritime aspirations that extend well beyond those areas.

China Maritime Studies Institute – China’s Navy, the world’s largest by number of ships, has a new leader. On 25 December 2023, Commander-in-Chief Xi Jinping, in his capacity as Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman, promoted Vice Admiral Hu Zhongming (胡中明) to Admiral and appointed him Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) (海军司令员). Hu’s predecessor Admiral Dong Jun (董军) attended the promotion ceremony, suggesting this is an orderly and expected transition—unlike recent removals of the PLA Defense Minister and the former Commander of China’s Strategic Rocket Forces.

USNI News – China’s President Xi Jinping appointed a new Chief for the People’s Liberation Army Navy in a Monday ceremony in Beijing while the post of China’s top defense minister remains vacant. 

USNI News – Chinese Maritime Militia vessels swarmed within and around Second Thomas Shoal this week in Beijing’s latest move against the Philippines in the South China Sea.

USNI News – Chinese Maritime Militia vessels swarmed within and around Second Thomas Shoal this week in Beijing’s latest move against the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Reuters – Every day, nearly 60 fully loaded very large crude-oil carriers sail between the Persian Gulf and Chinese ports, carrying about half of the oil that powers the world’s second-largest economy. As the vessels enter the South China Sea, they ply waters increasingly controlled by China’s growing military, from the missile batteries and airfields at its bases on disputed islands to its stealthy Type 055 destroyers. But when crossing the Indian Ocean, joined by others headed to China from Africa and Brazil, these tankers lack protection in a naval theatre dominated by the U.S.

China Maritime Studies Institute – China’s development of a credible sea-based deterrent has important implications for the PLAN, for China’s nuclear strategy, and for U.S.-China strategic stability. For the PLAN, the need to protect the SSBN force may divert resources away from other missions; it may also provide justification for further expansion of the PLAN fleet size. For China’s nuclear strategy and operations, the SSBN force may increase operational and bureaucratic pressures for adopting a more forward-leaning nuclear strategy. For U.S.-China strategic stability, the SSBN force will have complex effects, decreasing risks that Chinese decisionmakers confront use-or-lose escalation pressures, making China less susceptible to U.S. nuclear threats and intimidation and therefore perceiving lower costs to conventional aggression, and potentially introducing escalation risks from conventional-nuclear entanglement to the maritime domain.

BBC – The Philippines has accused China of “swarming” a reef off its coast after more than 135 military boats were spotted in the South China Sea.

Naval News – China’s latest non-nuclear submarine, the Type-039C Yuan Class, features a distinctive angled sail. We can now be confident that this is part of a sonar stealth technology. Other countries are also pursuing this general technique, but China is the first to field it.

Naval News – New combatant features striking stealthy design and likely much improved capabilities over existing corvettes, but exact nature of effort remains uncertain.

BBC – Australia has accused China’s navy of using sonar pulses in an incident in international waters that resulted in Australian divers suffering injuries.

Naval News – There have been persistent reports of China attempting to expand the global reach of its Navy with a network of overseas bases. Ream in Cambodia has long been on that list. New evidence shows that a large dry dock is now under construction there. As the war in Ukraine shows, these facilities are strategically important.