War on the Rocks – If war breaks out in the Indo-Pacific, it will not be over Taiwan but over the atolls and shoals dotting the South China Sea. At least, that’s the argument the Philippine ambassador to Washington has made, calling these sovereignty disputes, particularly between China and the Philippines, the region’s “real flashpoint.”…Nowhere in the South China Sea seems as ripe for conflict as Second Thomas Shoal.

USNI Proceedings – In 2023, China continued to build its fleet and increase its operations at sea.

Naval News – China has built the world’s first dedicated drone carrier. The ship has not been reported however and many of the circumstances surrounding it remain a mystery.

The War Zone – What exactly China’s plans are for the ship remains unclear, but it built it and got it out to sea extremely quickly.

Defense News – Defense News spoke to sources in Congress, the Pentagon and Washington-based think tanks to understand what may be the most important, most misunderstood year in Sino-U.S. relations. The message was that 2027 has exposed a rift in Washington’s China strategy. The U.S. is more focused on the country it calls its “pacing challenge,” but experts disagree on whether it’s running a sprint or a marathon — and if it can prepare for both.

Defense Opinion – The third Chinese carrier Fujian recently went to sea for trials, at some times trailing an Admiral Kuznetsov-like plume of smoke, reminiscent of the troubled Russian carrier’s last voyage outside home waters in 2023 when its engineering troubles made for global headlines. China has been in pursuit of a carrier aviation capability for nearly 40 years, using every imaginable method to acquire carriers via deception, amusement park attraction and finally domestic carrier production.

National Interest – Even if the United States has fallen into decline in absolute economic and military terms, China may have crested early and plunged into yet steeper decline. In that case, the margin between the contestants would widen even if both countries were on the wane. If that’s how Xi Jinping & Co. size things up, they might order the People’s Liberation Army into action while China stands its best chance of success. There is ample precedent. 

National Interest – China’s Navy is increasingly footloose—including its aviation component. Backed by an impressive armory of shore-based weapons, the fleet need no longer be closely tethered to defense of home waters and skies.

China Maritime Studies Institute – The PLA Navy recognizes the importance of a robust anti-submarine warfare (ASW) system to counter adversaries seeking undersea asymmetric advantages, and its aviation component is a key part of that system. This report discusses the PLAN’s efforts to improve its airborne ASW platforms and equipment and describes how PLAN-affiliated sources discuss the employment of those assets. The PLAN’s significant buildup and growing employment of fixed-wing maritime patrol aircraft in recent years are key indicators of the importance it attaches to the airborne ASW mission set, as is its push to acquire improved sensors on both fixed and rotary wing ASW platforms. PLAN-affiliated authors show that its academic and operational components are coordinating to explore best practices and maximize the effectiveness of these assets across a wide array of ASW scenarios.

US Naval War College Review – China’s engagement with western Pacific island nations and its pursuit of influence over their affairs are driven by its conception of comprehensive national power and a need for reliable access from which it might challenge the U.S. military and eventually displace it from the region.

USNI News – China’s third aircraft carrier Fujian (18) left Shanghai on Wednesday morning to conduct its first sea trial.

American Enterprise Institute – Beijing’s publicly released military budget is inaccurate and does not adequately capture the colossal scope and scale of China’s ongoing military buildup and wide-ranging armed forces modernization.

Reuters – A Chinese container ship remains the focus of an investigation into what caused the damage last year to a Baltic Sea gas pipeline between NATO members Finland and Estonia, Finnish authorities said Thursday.

War on the Rocks – More aggressively pushing back against Chinese illegal fishing practices is an opportunity for the U.S. government to highlight its global leadership in a way that directly defends the rules-based international order, challenges its most capable global competitor, helps rehabilitate the maritime environment, and increases the food security and economic opportunity for some of the world’s poorest and most helpless people.

China Aerospace Studies Institute – On Friday, 19 April, Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the Chinese Communist Part (CCP), attended a ceremony where he established a new ‘force’ of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Information Support Force (ISF).  The ISF appears to have been cleaved from the former Strategic Support Force (SSF), which was essentially disbanded at the same ceremony.

War on the Rocks – Chinese war drums beat on as pundits hotly debate if or when Beijing will try to seize Taiwan by force. There is no apparent countdown to D-day for initiating a blockade or invasion, but major strategic indicators clearly show that General Secretary Xi Jinping is still preparing his country for a showdown. Developments under way suggest Taiwan will face an existential crisis in single-digit years, most likely in the back half of the 2020s or front half of the 2030s.

China Maritime Studies Institute – China’s military diplomacy plays a crucial role in advancing the nation’s foreign policy objectives and safeguarding its strategic interests. This report highlights a diverse array of activities within military diplomacy, including senior-level meetings, joint military exercises, naval port calls, UN peacekeeping operations, and academic exchanges. Our findings reveal a significant—but incomplete—recovery in China’s military diplomacy activities in 2023, following a period of reduced contacts with foreign militaries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Southeast Asia and Russia remain primary partners for China, with emerging strategic importance also seen in Africa, Oceania, and the Middle East. Overall, China’s military diplomacy underscores its efforts to diversify partnerships and assert its global influence, emphasizing regional stability and international cooperation in pursuit of its diplomatic goals.

China Aerospace Studies Institute – The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is comprised of five branches (兵种): the surface fleet, the submarine fleet, naval aviation, the marine corps, and coastal defense. As the PLAN modernizes, each of the branches has undergone its own modernization. This includes the PLAN Coastal Defense force (PLANCDF) which is primarily comprised of coastal artillery forces and coastal defense missile forces. Although the PLANCDF coastal artillery has become mostly obsolete, the missile component of this force (海军岸导部队or PLAN Coastal Defense Missile force (CDMF)) has not only been growing, but may play a critical role in many of the PLA’s envisioned operations on China’s periphery. The CDMF is comprised of anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) systems and represents the shore-based medium and long-range fires that the PLAN brings to fights on the periphery of China. In the past decade, the CDMF has consistently undergone upgrades to its organization, the missile systems that it fields, and its barracks (军营). This branch has also been highlighted in official media several times recently demonstrating an increased interest in enhancing its capabilities and bringing the CDMF into focus. This paper aims to document the CDMF organization, its role in PLA operations, the different CDMF regiments within the Theater Commands (TC), the missile technology, and the facility modernizations that the CDMF has undergone.

Naval News – New imagery reveals important development steps for Chinese carrier aviation. While the new KJ-600 was spotted on aircraft carrier Fujian, the next gen J-35 and catapult variant of J-15 also made new appearances.

China Maritime Studies Institute – Since 2017, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has commissioned a new class of ocean surveillance vessel into its order of battle: the Type 927. Similar in design and function to the U.S. Navy’s Victorious and Impeccable class T-AGOS ships, the Type 927 was introduced to help remedy the PLAN’s longstanding weakness in anti-submarine warfare. The PLAN has likely built six Type 927 ships to date, most based for easy access to the South China Sea. In peacetime, these ships use their towed array sonar to collect acoustic data on foreign submarines and track their movements within and beyond the first island chain. In wartime, Type 927 vessels could contribute to PLAN anti-submarine warfare operations in support of a range of different maritime campaigns. However, their lack of self-defense capabilities would make them extremely vulnerable to attack.

RUSI – Chinese development financing in sub-Saharan Africa has sought, among other aims, to bolster Beijing’s supply chain resilience and dual port maritime strength. While this may enhance its ability to raise geopolitical tensions or conduct territorial expansion, complications remain around the execution of such a strategy.

USNI News – Chinese ships blasted water cannons at ships on Manila’s latest resupply mission to the South China Sea outpost on Second Thomas Shoal today, resulting in an unspecified number of injuries and heavy damage onboard one of the Philippine vessels.

Atlantic Council – Large-scale war disrupts societies and technology in profound and often unexpected ways. But because of this feature and not in spite of it, US policymakers and military leaders must rigorously study and plan for a broad range of implications of a years-long war with China.

Global Times – China will unveil its fourth aircraft carrier soon and answer the question as to whether it will be nuclear-powered, said the political commissar of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy at the ongoing two sessions in Beijing.

The War Zone – The images come amid indications that the navalized fighter could operate aboard China’s first two aircraft carriers, as well as its third.