– Aviation Week – A decade of boots-on-the-ground warfare in the Middle East does not, in late December, appear to have done much to spread democracy or tolerance across the region or indeed to quell the sources of terrorism. Syria, Libya and Egypt waver between rule by more or less secular strongmen and takeover by Islamic radicals. Overwatch by fighters, helicopters and surface-to-air missiles is now a routine feature of global sporting events as well as G20 meetings. On the other side of the globe, however, tensions are reminding many observers of the machinations that preceded previous industrial-age wars such as World War 1. China’s declaration of an air defense identification zone was remarkable not so much for its direct impact as for the fact that it took observers by surprise.

– The Diplomat – China’s Far Seas presence enables it to escort Syria’s chemical weapons marked for destruction.

– War is Boring – Snapshots reveal badly-needed new engine and refueling pod.

– War is Boring – …but impressive images include hints of naval limitations…

– National Interest – The U.S. National Intelligence Council forecasts that China will become the world’s largest economy (measured by purchasing-power parity) in 2022. Jane’s predicts that by 2015 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) funding will double to $238 billion, surpassing that of NATO’s eight largest militaries after the United States combined. The International Institute for Strategic Studies says that China’s defense spending might surpass America’s as early as 2025. Even if these projections prove exaggerated, economic, technical and industrial activity of an amazing scope and intensity is already affording China potent military capabilities. This is especially the case when such capabilities are applied—most likely through peacetime deterrence, or a limited skirmish with a neighbor such as Vietnam—to the “near seas” (the Yellow, East China and South China Seas), currently a major Chinese strategic focus.

Allowing Beijing to use force, or even the threat of force, to alter the regional status quo would have a number of pernicious effects. It would undermine the functioning of the most vibrant portion of the global commons—sea and air mediums that all nations rely on for trade and prosperity, but that none own. It would undermine important international norms and encourage the application of force to more of the world’s many persistent disputes. Finally, it would threaten to destabilize a region haunted by history that has prospered during nearly seven decades of U.S. forces helping to preserve peace. No other nation has the capability and lack of territorial claims necessary to play this still-vital role.

A number of strategists appear to believe that America faces the threat of conflict with China in the future, but that it can be avoided through accommodation or prepared for over a protracted period. In fact, a different scenario is more likely: even as the two Pacific powers are sufficiently interdependent to avoid direct hostilities—and share significant interests on which they may cooperate increasingly—China is already beginning to pose its greatest challenge to U.S. influence and interests in the Asia-Pacific.

– US Naval Institute Proceedings – Imperial Japan’s plan for fighting the U.S. Navy before World War II and contemporary China’s maritime area-denial tactics share remarkable similarities.

– War is Boring – The first of China’s four giant hovercraft has been spotted conducting trials on the Pearl River in the country’s south. Meanwhile, hovercraft number two is being assembled in nearby Guangzhou. It’s not hard to see why Beijing is spending a reported $300 million on the four Zubr-class hovercraft—two built in Ukraine and two in Guangzhou. Able to speed a distance of 300 miles in six hours while carrying eight armored vehicles or 500 marines apiece, the 187-foot-long Zubrs will help Beijing back up its once-empty threat to invade Taiwan in the event the island nation ever formally declares independence from the mainland.

– US Naval Institute Proceedings – Sea control in the Indo-Pacific is a top priority for both the United States and China—and the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s maritime capabilities are steadily evolving.

– National Interest – To ensure that Beijing cannot use force—or the threat of force—to change the status quo in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. must maintain military capabilities that will deter any threatening or aggressive actions by China—even as they cooperate in areas of shared interest. At a minimum, the U.S. must continue to prevent force from being used to resolve Asia-Pacific disputes and cooperate where it can until Beijing embraces the mutual efforts required for the two Pacific powers to achieve durable, if frequently or even continuously competitive, coexistence. To ensure this, the U.S. should demonstrate the capability to deny China the ability to seize and hold disputed territories. Given the inherent defensiveness of the U.S. approach, it should be possible to meet core objectives at an affordable price through the most critical timeframe—likely over the coming decade—with a bottom-line strategy of deterrence by denial.

– The National Interest – A nice look at the links between Ancient Greece and current affairs in the South China Sea.

– The Diplomat – China won the Cowpens/Liaoning encounter in the South China Sea. What lessons should the US draw?

– Chinese Navy – Five Ships of the Chinese Navy You Really Ought to Know About – The Chinese navy isn’t just an aircraft carrier and submarines—here are five other warships you’ll be seeing a lot of.

– War is Boring – Will America shove back?

– BBC – China says one of its warships “encountered” a US vessel, confirming US reports of a near-collision in the South China Sea earlier this month.

– AP – An official Chinese newspaper on Monday accused the U.S. Navy of harassing a Chinese squadron earlier this month, shortly before a near collision that marked the two nations’ most serious sea confrontation in years.

– Air Force – The DF-21D missile is a legitimate threat to carrier-based airpower, but at times the concern has bordered on hysteria.

– Stars and Stripes – On Dec. 5, a Chinese warship nearly collided with a U.S. Navy guided missile cruiser, according to U.S. Pacific Fleet. “While lawfully operating in international waters in the South China Sea, USS Cowpens (CG 63) and a PLA Navy vessel had an encounter that required maneuvering to avoid a collision. This incident underscores the need to ensure the highest standards of professional seamanship, including communications between vessels, to mitigate the risk of an unintended incident or mishap,” PACFLT said in a statement.

– The Diplomat – Acquisition of the advanced Su-35 fighter would give China some significant new capabilities.

– Aviation Week – East Asia and the U.S. had better get used to this sort of thing. China’s heavy-handed declaration of an unusually demanding air defense identification zone (ADIZ) is only one in a series of moves in which the country will gradually try to exert control over its maritime approaches. Worryingly, it may also be an early example of China’s Communist Party contriving to raise international tension as a means of rallying popular support at home.

– National Interest – On October 27, China’s state-run Xinhua news agency released a slideshow showing what the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) touted as the country’s first nuclear ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN). Though the “unveiling” of China’s Type 092 Xia-class SSBN comes as no surprise, Beijing’s open display of the submarine, coupled with technical improvements to the Chinese JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), raises the question of whether China is approaching a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.

– Wall Street Journal – Effective 10 a.m. on Nov. 23, Beijing declared an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) covering a significant portion of the East China Sea. The Chinese air force soon conducted its first patrol in the zone, with two large reconnaissance aircraft monitoring the area, early warning aircraft supporting and fighters providing cover.

– The Diplomat – Last week a senior PLA officer detailed China’s plans for establishing air and sea control over the South China Sea.

– BBC – China has demarcated an “air-defence identification zone” over an area of the East China Sea, covering islands that are also claimed by Japan.

– Defense News – For the first time in the country’s history, China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent nears initial operational capability (IOC), according to a forthcoming report by a US congressional commission on China. China’s JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile could reach IOC later this year, according to an early draft of the report by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

– Want China Times – After the Shenyang J-15, China’s first carrier-based fighter aircraft was repainted in military grey, Chinese military analyst Du Wenlong has told the state-run China News Service that the aircraft is almost ready for service in the PLA Navy Air Force.