– War on the Rocks – The robust trade relationship between the United States and China dwarfs the limited trade between the United States and the Soviet Union, leading many analysts to conclude that open conflict today is unrealistic because of a presumed equal economic impact on both sides. A cursory analysis reveals that the reality is entirely different: Sino–American economic ties are asymmetrically interdependent rather than mutually dependent. This would strongly favor the United States in any conflict.
– Washington Quarterly – The term “counter-invention” has become burdened with conflated meanings and thus controversial in describing aspects of Chinese national and military strategy. Yet, the term should be retained although refined in two ways to help U.S. policymakers and planners devise appropriate responses to Chinese behavior aimed at undermining U.S. leadership in Asia.
– USNI News – As it turns to rely on airpower for solutions to national security problems, the United States would be well served to reconsider the placement of additional overseas basing infrastructure on territories held by consistent and reliable allies. The reinforcement and expansion of existing airbases along NATO’s southern flank will greatly enhance our ability to respond to emerging threats and maintain a long-term presence at acceptable cost.
– Traditional Right – William Lind with an interesting insight on why did Turkey shoot down a Russian fighter-bomber.
– The Atlantic – The statesman understood something most diplomats don’t: history—and how to apply it.
– The Atlantic – In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.
– Japan Times – Robert D. Kaplan on Europe’s new strategic geography.
– USNI – On August 4th, the Russian Federation’s Foreign Ministry reported that it had resubmitted its claim to a vast swath (more than 1.2 million square kilometers, including the North Pole) of the rapidly changing and potentially lucrative Arctic to the United Nations. In 2002, Russia put forth a similar claim, but it was rejected based on lack of sufficient support. This latest petition, however, is supported by “ample scientific data collected in years of arctic research,” according to Moscow.
– New Yorker – The revolution’s midlife crisis and the nuclear deal.
– The Diplomat – Journalist and geopolitical analyst Robert Kaplan on the South China Sea, China and Asia’s future.
– The Diplomat – Could tactical nuclear deterrence help prevent conflict in an Asian maritime context?
– Liberty Web – An interview with Robert D. Kaplan.
– Globe and Mail – An interview with Robert D. Kaplan.
– The Atlantic – Robert D. Kaplan on why it’s so hard to defeat an enemy that won’t fight you, and what this means for U.S. strategy on everything from the Islamic State to China.
– Thomas PM Barnett – Thomas PM Barnett on how to become a grand strategist.
– New Yorker – How Xi Jinping, an unremarkable provincial administrator, became China’s most authoritarian leader since Mao.
– National Interest – As Cold War glaciers melt, Chinese-Korean tensions may grow more pronounced.
– The Atlantic – The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it.
– New Yorker – A look at how and why Libya has descended into chaos after the Arab Spring…and how some are trying to restore order.
– The Diplomat – What should be the factors informing U.S. strategy in the Arctic Ocean?
– New York Review of Books – Ahmed Rashid writes that the crisis ISIS has created for the West and the Arab world cannot be effectively addressed until there is a broader understanding of what ISIS wants. The first thing we need to recognize is that ISIS is not waging a war against the West…ISIS wants to destroy the near enemy, the Arab regimes, first. This is above all a war within Islam: a conflict of Sunni against Shia, but also a war by Sunni extremists against more moderate Muslims—between those who think the Muslim world should be dominated by a single strand of Wahhabism and its extremist offshoot Salafism and those who support a pluralistic vision of Muslim society. The leaders of ISIS seek to eliminate all Muslim and non-Muslim minorities from the Middle East—not only erasing the old borders and states imposed by Western powers, but changing the entire ethnic, tribal, and religious composition of the region.
– The Times Literary Supplement – Niall Ferguson’s take on Henry Kissinger’s new book “World Order”. Ferguson asks: Does America have a foreign policy? Is this a New World Disorder?
– BBC – The question is why the Saudis would risk the goodwill of other Opec members, simultaneously emasculating the organisation and undercutting their ability to use it in the future to serve their interests. The answer is to hurt Iran and Russia…
– Forbes – Robert D. Kaplan states the Realist’s Creed.
– Epoch Times – The world may be focused on the “war on terror”, but the arms build up in North-East Asia poses a far greater threat to global stability, says Professor Desmond Ball.