– RAND – Russia’s recent aggression against Ukraine has disrupted nearly a generation of relative peace and stability between Moscow and its Western neighbors and raised concerns about its larger intentions. From the perspective of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the threat to the three Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — former Soviet republics, now member states that border Russian territory — may be the most problematic of these. In a series of war games conducted between summer 2014 and spring 2015, RAND Arroyo Center examined the shape and probable outcome of a near-term Russian invasion of the Baltic states. The games’ findings are unambiguous: As presently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members. Fortunately, it will not require Herculean effort to avoid such a failure. Further gaming indicates that a force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades — adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilities — could suffice to prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states.
Category Archives: Geopolitics
Europe’s New Medieval Map
– Wall Street Journal – Robert D. Kaplan writes that if you look at any map of Europe from the Middle Ages or the early modern era, before the Industrial Revolution, and you will be overwhelmed by its dizzying incoherence — all of those empires, kingdoms, confederations, minor states, “upper” this and “lower” that. It is a picture of a radically fractured world. Today’s Europe is, in effect, returning to such a map.
Military to Military
– London Review of Books – Seymour M. Hersh on US intelligence sharing with the Syrians in the Syrian war.
Why America isn’t winning its wars
– Christian Science Monitor – It’s easy to blame presidents for a lack of strategy, but a growing number of officials are saying that the fault lies with a lack of vision in the Pentagon.
The Economics of War With China: This Will Hurt You More Than It Hurts Me
– War on the Rocks – The robust trade relationship between the United States and China dwarfs the limited trade between the United States and the Soviet Union, leading many analysts to conclude that open conflict today is unrealistic because of a presumed equal economic impact on both sides. A cursory analysis reveals that the reality is entirely different: Sino–American economic ties are asymmetrically interdependent rather than mutually dependent. This would strongly favor the United States in any conflict.
Is China Pursuing Counter-Intervention?
– Washington Quarterly – The term “counter-invention” has become burdened with conflated meanings and thus controversial in describing aspects of Chinese national and military strategy. Yet, the term should be retained although refined in two ways to help U.S. policymakers and planners devise appropriate responses to Chinese behavior aimed at undermining U.S. leadership in Asia.
Building a Mediterranean Arc of Stability for America’s Long War
– USNI News – As it turns to rely on airpower for solutions to national security problems, the United States would be well served to reconsider the placement of additional overseas basing infrastructure on territories held by consistent and reliable allies. The reinforcement and expansion of existing airbases along NATO’s southern flank will greatly enhance our ability to respond to emerging threats and maintain a long-term presence at acceptable cost.
The Turkish-ISIS Alliance
– Traditional Right – William Lind with an interesting insight on why did Turkey shoot down a Russian fighter-bomber.
The Key to Henry Kissinger’s Success
– The Atlantic – The statesman understood something most diplomats don’t: history—and how to apply it.
The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?
– The Atlantic – In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.
Europe’s new geography
– Japan Times – Robert D. Kaplan on Europe’s new strategic geography.
Yours, Mine, and Moscow’s: Breaking Down Russia’s Latest Arctic Claims
– USNI – On August 4th, the Russian Federation’s Foreign Ministry reported that it had resubmitted its claim to a vast swath (more than 1.2 million square kilometers, including the North Pole) of the rapidly changing and potentially lucrative Arctic to the United Nations. In 2002, Russia put forth a similar claim, but it was rejected based on lack of sufficient support. This latest petition, however, is supported by “ample scientific data collected in years of arctic research,” according to Moscow.
Tehran’s Promise
– New Yorker – The revolution’s midlife crisis and the nuclear deal.
Interview: Robert Kaplan
– The Diplomat – Journalist and geopolitical analyst Robert Kaplan on the South China Sea, China and Asia’s future.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence
– The Diplomat – Could tactical nuclear deterrence help prevent conflict in an Asian maritime context?
Interview with Robert D. Kaplan: The South China Sea and the Rise of China’s Commercial Empire
– Liberty Web – An interview with Robert D. Kaplan.
Robert D. Kaplan: ‘The South China Sea is to China what the Greater Caribbean was to the United States’
– Globe and Mail – An interview with Robert D. Kaplan.
The Art of Avoiding War
– The Atlantic – Robert D. Kaplan on why it’s so hard to defeat an enemy that won’t fight you, and what this means for U.S. strategy on everything from the Islamic State to China.
How to Become a Grand Strategist
– Thomas PM Barnett – Thomas PM Barnett on how to become a grand strategist.
Born Red
– New Yorker – How Xi Jinping, an unremarkable provincial administrator, became China’s most authoritarian leader since Mao.
Trouble Ahead? Chinese-Korean Disputes May Intensify
– National Interest – As Cold War glaciers melt, Chinese-Korean tensions may grow more pronounced.
What ISIS Really Wants
– The Atlantic – The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it.
The Unraveling
– New Yorker – A look at how and why Libya has descended into chaos after the Arab Spring…and how some are trying to restore order.
Securing Santa: Forging a US Arctic Strategy
– The Diplomat – What should be the factors informing U.S. strategy in the Arctic Ocean?
Geopolitics / ISIS – ISIS: What the US Doesn’t Understand
– New York Review of Books – Ahmed Rashid writes that the crisis ISIS has created for the West and the Arab world cannot be effectively addressed until there is a broader understanding of what ISIS wants. The first thing we need to recognize is that ISIS is not waging a war against the West…ISIS wants to destroy the near enemy, the Arab regimes, first. This is above all a war within Islam: a conflict of Sunni against Shia, but also a war by Sunni extremists against more moderate Muslims—between those who think the Muslim world should be dominated by a single strand of Wahhabism and its extremist offshoot Salafism and those who support a pluralistic vision of Muslim society. The leaders of ISIS seek to eliminate all Muslim and non-Muslim minorities from the Middle East—not only erasing the old borders and states imposed by Western powers, but changing the entire ethnic, tribal, and religious composition of the region.
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