Barents Observer – After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent halt in cooperation with the other Arctic states, Russia has turned east and south for new partners. At the same time, Russia is messaging actively that the Arctic Council without Russia is illegitimate. What is Russia’s posture in Arctic affairs in the new era of growing instability and geopolitical tensions? And how does China – Russia’s primary choice among potential new partners – react to Russia’s invitations?
Category Archives: Geopolitics
The UK must prepare for a rapidly changing Arctic
Wavell Room – The UK is the Arctic’s nearest neighbour, and developments in the Arctic significantly impact the UK’s environment, security, and energy supply.
Maldives election: Pro-China candidate Muizzu wins presidency
BBC – A pro-China candidate has won presidential elections in the Maldives, defeating an incumbent who had strengthened relations with India.
India Revises Stance on China-Philippines Maritime Dispute as New Delhi Looks East
USNI News – India revised its position on the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration last week in a meeting between Indian and Filipino diplomats that supports Manila’s territorial claims over China.
Tackling Maritime Security Requires a Revised Inso-Pacific Strategy
War on the Rocks – To tackle maritime security comprehensively, however, China should not be the sole focus of U.S. policy in the region. The United States should recognize that nontraditional maritime security threats remain significant barriers to a free, safe, and prosperous maritime domain in the Indo-Pacific. As maritime piracy has declined globally, there has been an increased focus on the role illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing plays in marine ecosystem destruction as well as a gateway to other maritime criminal activity. Illegal foreign fishing has been long believed to drive sea piracy. This narrative is clear when it comes to Somali piracy in the greater Gulf of Aden. While foreign industrial trawlers can sometimes push local anglers into maritime crime, the relationship is more nuanced and localized than previously thought.
US, Papua New Guinea boost defense ties in wake of Solomon Islands deal with China
Defense News – A Coast Guard spokeswoman noted that being turned away from the Solomons “allowed for increased partnership with Papua New Guinea, supporting strategic objectives and strengthening regional relationships.”
US military will have ‘unimpeded’ access to Papua New Guinea bases under new security deal
The Guardian – Deal signed last month gives US ‘exclusive use’ of parts of bases, as Palau PM says he has asked US to step up patrols after Chinese incursions into its waters
Taiwan Strait: top EU diplomat calls for European navy patrols
The Guardian – European navies should patrol the disputed Taiwan Strait, the EU foreign policy chief has said, echoing earlier comments stressing how crucial Taiwan is to Europe.
Why the US is Losing the Race For the Arctic and What To Do About It
CIMSEC – This article attempts to explain why the US is behaving as it does in the Arctic. It then argues that paradoxically falling behind in this regional competition may actually improve America’s overall security and international influence when compared to Russia and China.
Containing the Bomb: An Assessment of Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
CIMSEC – This article is part of a series that will explore the use and legal issues surrounding military zones employed during peace and war to control the entry, exit, and activities of forces operating in these zones.
Ideating the Future of Indian Power Projection via Andaman & Nicobar Islands
ORCA – In recent years, China has increased its military activity in the Indian Ocean with naval surveillance ships and submarines conducting more missions in the region. As China-India relations continue to worsen, especially after the Ladakh standoff, these military activities are creating greater security concerns for India. To counter these security threats, India has started developing its capacities, especially on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, to stand up against China in the Indian Ocean.
Russia Won’t Sit Idly By After Finland and Sweden Join NATO
War on the Rocks – When Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership last spring, Russia’s reaction was negative but muted. It consisted only of words, not actions — in all likelihood due to Russia’s preoccupation with its war against Ukraine. Yet we should not assume that Russia will refrain from responding in the future. The Kremlin made its position clear years ago: there will be consequences from Finnish and Swedish NATO membership
For Latin American Countries, Geopolitical Competition Begins at Sea
RUSI – The region faces superpower rivalry that demands more active maritime aspirations and wider defence alliances.
Assessing the US Pacific Partnership Strategy For a Free and Open Blue Pacific
CIMSEC – Last September, Washington published the Pacific Partnership Strategy (PPS), the first ever U.S. government strategy dedicated to the Pacific Islands after decades of American disengagement.
Leaning on the Big Switch in the Pacific: Why the United States Dominates Pacific Telecom Infrastructure
CIMSEC – A combination of the United States’ nascent modern industrial policy, diplomacy, and aligned governmental and commercial interests have set the conditions for it to pull ahead in the race to control vital telecommunications infrastructure in the Pacific.
US seeks deal on Philippines bases to complete arc around China
BBC – If you look at a map of East Asia, you can see an arc of US alliances stretching from South Korea and Japan in the north to Australia in the south. But smack in the middle of that is a missing link – the Philippines, which borders two of the biggest potential flashpoints, Taiwan and the South China Sea, or the West Philippine Sea as Manila insists on calling it. America hopes to finally stitch that gap when Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin meets Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr in Manila on Thursday.
How Gray-Zone Ops in the Yellow Sea Could Trigger a Maritime Crisis
Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies – The body of water dividing the People’s Republic of China and the Koreas has inherent geostrategic importance and military operational significance. It’s long been a complex, congested, contested water space: an overfished area beset by conflicting historical narratives and sovereignty claims.
Chinese Investment in Western Hemisphere Raising Concerns for U.S., Says SOUTHCOM Commander
USNI News – The United States is facing increased competition in a number of sectors, especially from China in the Western Hemisphere, raising new security concerns, the head of U.S. Southern Command said Thursday.
Taiwan Prepares to be Invaded
The Atlantic – If China wants to do something drastic, President Tsai Ing-wen told me, “Xi has to weigh the costs. He has to think twice.”
A Dangerous Game Over Taiwan
New Yorker – For decades, China has coveted its island neighbor. Is Xi Jinping ready to seize it?
An excellent introduction as well as a thorough review of the current state of play, especially from the Taiwanese side.
Japan’s hope of reclaiming Kuril Islands sinks as Russia’s war in Ukraine raises animosity in the Pacific
The Globe and Mail – Since the Soviets invaded this archipelago in 1945, Moscow and Tokyo have struggled to agree on who controls what. Now, seeing the militarization of their former home, ex-islanders and their descendants in Japan fear for the future.
How to Make the Most of the Israeli-Lebanese Maritime Deal
War on the Rocks – After years of stalling and hedging, a major economic collapse in Lebanon, multiple unstable governments in Israel, and threats of violence, the United States has successfully brokered a maritime border agreement between Beirut and Jerusalem. War has been averted, and everyone is happy. At least for now.
The Next Mediterranean Front Line
War on the Rocks – From migration to energy and food security, the Mediterranean has emerged as an overlooked front in Russia’s war with the West. As its name suggests, the Mediterranean is a sea that sits between lands. For better or worse, it connects Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, transporting fuel, grain, and refugees from one shore to another. As such, it can serve as a source of stability for Europe or as a site of disruption for actors like Russia that seek to threaten that stability.
Israel and Lebanon reach ‘historic’ maritime border deal
The Guardian – Lebanon and Israel have reached a historic agreement demarcating a disputed maritime border between the countries.
Why Erdogan Might Choose War With Greece
War on the Rocks – A myriad of issues divide Athens and Ankara, but Erdogan has now focused his rage upon Greece’s militarization of its Aegean islands. While the Greek military presence there has remained largely consistent over the last several decades, Ankara insists that it is in violation of the 1923 and 1947 treaties that established Greece’s sovereignty over the islands.
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