CIMSEC – In January 1991, Chinese military officers watched CNN footage of the United States dismantling the Iraqi Army and experienced what one People’s Liberation Army (PLA) analyst later called a “psychological nuclear attack.” Desert Storm displayed every capability the PLA lacked, and China had no choice but to begin remaking its military from the ground up.

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RUSI – Shadow fleets sit at the centre of maritime hybrid warfare, economic security and environmental risk. Despite this growing recognition, the West lacks the coherence to confront it.

Navy Lookout – European coastal states, including the UK, have issued a coordinated warning to the international maritime community over unsafe and deceptive practices linked to Russian maritime activity in the Baltic and North Seas. The statement signals a firmer enforcement posture, making clear that AIS manipulation and sanction-evasion by vessels associated with Russia will face closer scrutiny and reduced tolerance.  

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The Guardian – The plummeting price of cocaine is forcing drug-traffickers to reuse the “narco-submarines” they would previously have scuttled once the custom-built vessels had completed their cargo runs from South America to Europe, according to a senior Spanish police officer.

(Thanks to Alain)

The ten most significant naval news stories / trends / themes this year included:

• The Houthi’s continued effective closure of the Red Sea to commercial shipping. How much longer will the world allow this to happen?

• The Ukrainian Navy’s ever increasing innovation with its use of surface to air missiles and bomber drones from unmanned surface vessels, its use of unmanned underwater vehicles for strikes and its strikes deep in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea against Russian shadow fleet tankers. Will successful operations against Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers help to cut off funding of Russia’s war in the Ukraine?

• NATO navies concrete reaction to Russian hybrid warfare at sea with the deployment of a NATO joint task force to protect undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. Is this a good example of how quickly NATO is learning to operate in peace and war without the U.S. taking the lead?

• Succesful French and Italian and United Kingdom naval deployments in the Indo Pacific this year which had a hugely symbolic political impact. What would these country’s military contribution be in time of war with China?

• Taiwan’s efforts to begin to turn itself into a porcupine with mines, drones, antiship cruise missiles and unmanned surface vessels. Will this be enough to deter a Chinese invasion or will it be a case of too little, too late?

• The recapitalization of the Philippine Navy with new bases, ships, and antiship cruise missiles and extensive exercising with the US Army and US Marine Corps. Is this the first concrete example of US “stand-in” forces operating in the First Island Chain?

• Japan’s publicly stated recognition that a conflict in Taiwan will most certainly involve Japan as evidenced by it beginning to fortify the Ryukyu Islands. Will the US Army and US Marine Corps start exercising in the Ryukyus alongside the Japanese, providing another concrete example of US “stand-in” forces operating in the First Island Chain?

• China beginning to practice salami slicing territorial tactics in the Yellow Sea against South Korea, as they have done in the East China Sea and South China Sea in the past. How will South Korea react?

• The continued rise and rise of the People’s Liberation Army Navy with more and more ships being commissioned especially the bespoke landing barges, new missiles and aircraft, aggressive exercising around Australia and Alaska, and extensive anticorruption leadership purges. In 2026 will we see aggressive exercising off of Hawaii or the US West Coast? Is 2027 the date China will invade Taiwan?

• The continued fall and fall of the US Navy with the cancellation of the Constellation-class frigate program and its replacement with the FF(X) frigates that are essentially unarmed, the cancellation of the long under development DDG(X) program with the newly under development Trump-class battleships, no plan to replace the F/A-18 Hornet, and continued confusion over its unmanned air, surface and and undersea programs. Are these the actions of a country that is serious about countering the Chinese Navy? The time to act is growing very, very, very, short…

CIMSEC – Criminals will always seek illicit profit with the highest reward and the lowest risk. Maritime commodities have become increasingly popular on account of their relative invisibility. Eels may be the Caribbean’s “flavor of the month,” but something else will come to take their place in the future. That means that the region – replete with sophisticated criminal organizations – needs to build collective resilience against this phenomenon by working together. First, to make invisible criminal commodities visible, and thereafter, to make the risk of getting caught outweigh the potential rewards of the crime.

War on the Rocks – Shipbuilding is having a moment in Washington. That’s great, but hype doesn’t float boats.

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CIMSEC – The seabed mining industry has stepped in and offered themselves as one of several proposed solutions to alleviating the problem of shortages of critical minerals. Unfortunately, these firms are mostly pitching false promises.

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CIMSEC – The U.S. Navy and its Pacific allies can promote cooperation with European navies in Indo-Pacific theater. It can mark a catalyst that mobilizes and focuses Western resources while improving burden sharing. This initiative will strengthen our friendship and naval cooperation, and will represent a key factor in strengthening deterrence.

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Breaking Defense – Amid debate over aircraft carriers’ vulnerability, analysts told Breaking Defense global interest is strong.

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US Naval War College Review – Naval diplomacy is a key noncombat mission for fleets to engage in as they communicate their nations’ broader political objectives. Most literature focuses on how different platforms affect this communication but neglects the social dimension of naval diplomacy and how personal relationships supplement and impact the strategic landscape.

Wavell Room – In a rain-beaten marina on a rugged coastline, near a nameless village more familiar with fishing than fleet operations, a teenage Able Seaman sits inside a converted shipping container. Watching a laptop screen, they remotely pilot a small crewless boat through choppy waters via a suite of cameras and RADAR feeds. For all intents and purposes, they are the Captain…

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National Interest – James Holmes writes that oceanic strife is no longer solely an affair for great powers. It’s no longer even just for states. 

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Navy Lookout – There are now at least three navies that have acquired or are developing ‘flat-top’ carriers designed specifically to carry uncrewed air systems. Here we look at some of these projects and the implications of this trend.

Reuters – Three oil tankers have been damaged by blasts in the last month in separate incidents around the Mediterranean, with the causes unknown, shipping and security sources said on Wednesday.

(Thanks to Alain)

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