AN41

Modern War Institute – The Army Mad Scientist team executed its 2019 Science Fiction Writing Contest to glean insights about the future fight with a near-peer competitor in 2030. The team received seventy-seven submissions from both within and outside of the Department of Defense. The following story was the winning entry and was submitted by Col. Jasper Jeffers. This story features future disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, augmented humans, and robotics.

How Combined Navies and Coast Guards Coalesce: A Maritime Forces Learning Model

CIMSEC – Walk into a bar in any country and ask a bunch of naval officers, coast guard officers and merchant mariners (Yes, I have done this), “Why is it that maritime forces are able to come together so quickly and effectively when the maritime domain is under duress?” You will hear answers such as . . . “We just know how to work together.” A Spanish admiral told me, “We speak the same language,” and an Indian naval officer told me, “We’re cut from the same cloth.” Examining some historical examples of how maritime security organizations have successfully come together in times of crisis will shed light on this fascinating phenomenon.

A First Time For Everything: The United Nations Maritime Task Force in Lebanon

CIMSEC – Another example of successful UN peacekeeping includes the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), forged from the fires of the 1978 war between Israel and PLO fighters operating from southern Lebanon. This UN mission was substantially enhanced in 2006 following a repeat of the conflict. It also included a historical development in UN peacekeeping, the establishment of the Maritime Task Force (MTF) attached to UNIFIL, the first such naval operation of its kind under the auspices of the United Nations.

2018 World Naval Operational News Highlights

The ten most significant naval news stories / trends / themes this year included:

  • The completion of the first Indian Navy SSBN deterrence patrol. When will India be able to do this routinely?

  • The US Navy’s purchase of its first operational UAV, the MQ-25 tanker. Will its commitment to this operational concept remain strong, or fade as it has in the past with prior US Navy UAV programs? And when will the US Navy start investing as heavily as the Chinese Navy has in USVs and UUVs?

  • The operational collapse of the German armed forces in general and the German Navy in particular. What is the point of having a navy that is not fit for sea?

  • The slow but steady NATO military build up in the Baltic against Russia topped off by Exercise Trident Juncture this fall. When will the US consider Russia contained and focus most of its energies on the Chinese threat?

  • The Royal Navy reacquiring a fixed wing aircraft capability at sea with the F-35B. Will they be able to afford enough aircraft to field a viable capability?

  • The US Marine Corps rededicating itself to an offensive mission of seizing and holding advance bases that they can use to practice their own form of anti-access area denial. Will this be a mission they hold uniquely or share with the US Army?

  • The Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force taking a more serious approach to defending the Senkaku Islands, including activating a Marine unit and buying F-35B’s for its Izumi-class carriers. Is the tale of the popular Japanese manga story Kubo Ibuki coming true?

  • China weaponizing its sand castles in the South China Sea with defensive and offensive missiles and aircraft. When will the US have the political will to hold military exercises in the South China Sea with its allies to counter these actions rather than just conducting FONOPs?

  • China’s use of predatory financing to take control of critical infrastructure around the world including ports and airports. When will the world realize you don’t want your greatest rival owning you?

  • The ever-increasing use of new commercial cubesat constellations to monitor commercial activities at sea and in port. When will they be weaponized and start being used to monitor operational naval activities at sea and in port?