Delay, Disrupt, Degrade: Mine Warfare in Taiwan’s Porcupine Defense

War on the Rocks – In October 1884, as part of the wider Sino-French War, a contingent of heavily armed French warships sailed toward the harbor of Tamsui, in northern Taiwan. When the fleet approached the estuary of the Tamsui River, nine naval mines and boats loaded with stones blocked its path. Prevented from sailing into Taipei, French commanders dispatched their marines, but they fared little better. After several hours of fighting on land they were driven back into the sea. Today, Taiwan again faces the threat of invasion — this time from China. As Taiwan’s leaders consider their defensive options, the Battle of Tamsui may also hold answers.

Lessons From Ukraine: Taiwan Eyes 200 ‘Multipurpose’ Drone Boats That Can Swarm Chinese Warships

Eurasian Times – The Taiwanese military is considering purchasing 200 units of an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) that can be used for multiple purposes. These range from a target drone to one armed with interchangeable modules for reconnaissance, surveillance, electronic intelligence (ELINT), and warheads for attack purposes. 

Taiwan’s Theory of the Fight

War on the Rocks – In crowded field of work by scholars and officials exploring Taiwan’s security, Lee Hsi-ming’s Taiwan’s Plan for Victory: An Asymmetric Strategy of Using the Small to Control the Large (2022) stands out as both a theoretical framework for deterrence and a set of concrete proposals for asymmetric resistance against a People’s Liberation Army invasion. Lee, Taiwan’s chief of the general staff from 2017 to 2019, argues for reorganizing Taiwan’s military in a “paradigm shift” away from expensive “traditional” platforms and instead instituting an “Overall Defence Concept” relying on small, mobile, distributable, and lethal weapons to deter a numerically and materially superior People’s Republic of China. If deterrence fails, “overall defense” also promises the tactics and weapons to survive an initial attack and then, Lee claims, defeat an enemy landing force.

Understanding the Deterrence Gap in the Taiwan Strait

War on the Rocks – For peace to be likely in the Taiwan Strait in the 2020s, Taiwan and its friends will need to take radical action to develop short-term constraints on Chinese action but also look for ways to encourage internal restraint among Chinese decision-makers, something that will require recognizing practically what the Department of Defense has recognized theoretically: that if China comes to view the evolution of the status quo in increasingly negative terms, its incentives not to use force are correspondingly reduced.

Taiwan’s Most Pressing Challenge is Strangulation, Not Invasion

War on the Rocks – While the United States should develop the capability to deter and defeat a Chinese amphibious invasion, that scenario remains a low probability. What’s more, Taiwan is under assault day in and day out through the types of intimidation, boundary probing, and coercion described above. The discussions on and preparations for deterring a direct attack or blockade cannot come at the expense of the types of investments needed to ensure Taiwan’s continuing resiliency and confidence. 

Can Taiwan Resist a Large-Scale Military Attack by China?

RAND – Taiwan remains an important potential flashpoint between China and the United States. Given the geographic distance between the United States and Taiwan and the military challenge of defeating a major attack by China, an accurate assessment of Taiwan’s ability to sustain a defense can be a critical factor for U.S. decisionmakers and planners. In this report, the authors develop a framework for assessing a country’s capacity to resist a large-scale military attack. In that framework, a country’s ability to withstand such an attack depends on four variables: political leadership and social cohesion, military effectiveness, durability, and military intervention by an ally. The authors then use that framework to assess Taiwan’s capacity to resist an attack by China for 90 days — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. An accurate assessment of Taiwan’s ability to withstand a large-scale attack by China could help U.S. decisionmakers and planners better anticipate and respond in such a situation.

Taiwan’s Navy Caught Between Two Strategies to Counter Chinese Threat

USNI News – Taiwan’s Republic of China Navy is facing two looming threats from China and has been struggling to create a force structure to handle both. First, the ROCN must be able to meet the risk of a potential full-scale invasion by the People’s Republic of China. Second, it has to confront the constant grey zone activities carried out by Chinese forces that are harassing Taiwan’s borders on a daily basis.