Can Taiwan Resist a Large-Scale Military Attack by China?

RAND – Taiwan remains an important potential flashpoint between China and the United States. Given the geographic distance between the United States and Taiwan and the military challenge of defeating a major attack by China, an accurate assessment of Taiwan’s ability to sustain a defense can be a critical factor for U.S. decisionmakers and planners. In this report, the authors develop a framework for assessing a country’s capacity to resist a large-scale military attack. In that framework, a country’s ability to withstand such an attack depends on four variables: political leadership and social cohesion, military effectiveness, durability, and military intervention by an ally. The authors then use that framework to assess Taiwan’s capacity to resist an attack by China for 90 days — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. An accurate assessment of Taiwan’s ability to withstand a large-scale attack by China could help U.S. decisionmakers and planners better anticipate and respond in such a situation.

Taiwan’s Navy Caught Between Two Strategies to Counter Chinese Threat

USNI News – Taiwan’s Republic of China Navy is facing two looming threats from China and has been struggling to create a force structure to handle both. First, the ROCN must be able to meet the risk of a potential full-scale invasion by the People’s Republic of China. Second, it has to confront the constant grey zone activities carried out by Chinese forces that are harassing Taiwan’s borders on a daily basis.

 Eight New Points On The Porcupine: More Ukrainian Lessons for Taiwan

War on the Rocks – A number of recent assessments have called for Taiwan to pursue an “asymmetric” dragon-choking “porcupine strategy” prioritizing “a large number of small things” for its defense. The goal of these measures is to present a robust anti-access/area-denial threat to Beijing’s aspirations in Taiwan, clouding its prospects for military and political success and, ideally, keeping the threat of Chinese invasion hypothetical through this critical decade and beyond.

The Counter Intuitive Sensbility of Taiwan’s New Defense Strategy

War on the Rocks – Perhaps policymakers should ask why Taiwan has chosen a different defense strategy than what the United States wants. A major reason is America itself: Washington’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” does not provide Taipei with a clear security commitment, even as American intervention is essential to any effective defense. Taiwan’s new strategy is therefore designed to maximize the likelihood of U.S. intervention, even as it reduces the longevity of its forces against Chinese attack. Washington can convince Taipei to adopt asymmetric defense by ameliorating its fears of abandonment, switching from ambiguity to clarity.