Defense One – As China applies increasing military pressure against Taiwan, it’s worth considering an earlier era when conditions were much worse. In the fall of 1958, four countries—United States, Soviet Union, People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan)—found themselves on the brink of nuclear war. The incident, which would later be known as the second Taiwan Strait Crisis, led to a rupture in Sino-Soviet relations and altered the trajectory of the Cold War. Revisiting it reminds us of an element of deterrence that is getting short shrift today.

RUSI – This policy brief traces the emergence and defining features of the grey zone concept, looking at China’s actions and Taiwan’s responses.

The War Zone – Taiwan has not moved as fast as some may have expected to build an uncrewed surface vessel force, but that appears to be changing.

Naval News – Dr. Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation, returns with this historical analysis of France’s invasion of Taiwan in 1884-85, where the defenders were Chinese. If Taiwan resists any future invasion by China, these historical lessons might pave the way to future deterrence, battlefield tactics, and strategies.

The War Zone – The torpedo tube-equipped Huilong is apparently intended as a test craft, but could well help shape Taiwan’s future underwater fleet.

VOA – Taiwan is stepping up efforts to strengthen its capabilities to respond to a potential military blockade by China, as Beijing increases military pressure on the democratically ruled island.

Naval News – China announced that it had launched military drills code-named “Joint Sword 2024B” around Taiwan early in the morning on October 14, 2024. In response, Taiwan’s defense ministry revealed that it had deployed warships, fighter jets, UAVs, and mobile anti-ship missile batteries.

China Maritime Studies Institute – During World War II, the United States and the Empire of Japan each developed plans and marshaled forces for a climactic battle over Taiwan. Both sides regarded the island as an area of strategic consequence…By revisiting the history of Taiwan-focused war plans, we may better assess current challenges and develop insights that could inform future strategic, operational, and tactical decisions.

Taiwan News – Taiwan’s first indigenous submarine, the “Narwhal,” attracted onlookers as it docked at a pier in Kaohsiung harbor Saturday.

(Thanks to Alain)

Taiwan News – Budgets for seven new submarines will only be activated after tests are completed for the country’s first indigenous submarine.

(Thanks to Alain)

The War Zone – Masses of loitering munitions could engage approaching Chinese landing craft, as well as targets ashore, and overwhelm vessels in the Taiwan Strait.

War on the Rocks – This strange defeat remains a remarkably underexplored historical case study in the fields of security studies and defense analysis. This is somewhat surprising, given its apparent educational value and strategic relevance to some of the most pressing contemporary military challenges in the Indo-Pacific theater.

War on the Rocks – In October 1884, as part of the wider Sino-French War, a contingent of heavily armed French warships sailed toward the harbor of Tamsui, in northern Taiwan. When the fleet approached the estuary of the Tamsui River, nine naval mines and boats loaded with stones blocked its path. Prevented from sailing into Taipei, French commanders dispatched their marines, but they fared little better. After several hours of fighting on land they were driven back into the sea. Today, Taiwan again faces the threat of invasion — this time from China. As Taiwan’s leaders consider their defensive options, the Battle of Tamsui may also hold answers.

Eurasian Times – The Taiwanese military is considering purchasing 200 units of an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) that can be used for multiple purposes. These range from a target drone to one armed with interchangeable modules for reconnaissance, surveillance, electronic intelligence (ELINT), and warheads for attack purposes. 

War on the Rocks – In crowded field of work by scholars and officials exploring Taiwan’s security, Lee Hsi-ming’s Taiwan’s Plan for Victory: An Asymmetric Strategy of Using the Small to Control the Large (2022) stands out as both a theoretical framework for deterrence and a set of concrete proposals for asymmetric resistance against a People’s Liberation Army invasion. Lee, Taiwan’s chief of the general staff from 2017 to 2019, argues for reorganizing Taiwan’s military in a “paradigm shift” away from expensive “traditional” platforms and instead instituting an “Overall Defence Concept” relying on small, mobile, distributable, and lethal weapons to deter a numerically and materially superior People’s Republic of China. If deterrence fails, “overall defense” also promises the tactics and weapons to survive an initial attack and then, Lee claims, defeat an enemy landing force.

The Guardian – Taiwan on Tuesday drove away a Chinese coast guard boat that entered waters near its sensitive frontline islands, one day after China’s coast guard boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat amid an escalating dispute sparked by a fatal capsize last week.

War on the Rocks – For peace to be likely in the Taiwan Strait in the 2020s, Taiwan and its friends will need to take radical action to develop short-term constraints on Chinese action but also look for ways to encourage internal restraint among Chinese decision-makers, something that will require recognizing practically what the Department of Defense has recognized theoretically: that if China comes to view the evolution of the status quo in increasingly negative terms, its incentives not to use force are correspondingly reduced.

Naval News – On 16 January 2024, Taiwan started construction of a new light frigate for the Republic of China Navy (ROC Navy or Taiwanese Navy). This new class of vessel specializes in anti-submarine warfare.

The Messenger – James Holmes writes that what naval strategists such as yours truly call “sea denial” in the Strait is chiefly — though not exclusively — a job for the Taiwan Army.

War on the Rocks – While the United States should develop the capability to deter and defeat a Chinese amphibious invasion, that scenario remains a low probability. What’s more, Taiwan is under assault day in and day out through the types of intimidation, boundary probing, and coercion described above. The discussions on and preparations for deterring a direct attack or blockade cannot come at the expense of the types of investments needed to ensure Taiwan’s continuing resiliency and confidence. 

Naval News – The U.S Navy represent the pinnacle of submarine technology. With a few notable exceptions, this is not exported. Now Taiwan, which has unveiled its first locally designed submarine, is relying on some key elements of American tech.

BBC – Taiwan has unveiled its first domestically-made submarine as it bolsters its defences against a possible Chinese attack.

Covert Shores – In parallel to the full-sized Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS), Taiwan is building a much smaller submarine. The Huilong design is a midge submarine intended for testing, It will be armed with torpedoes however.

(Thanks to Alain)

War Zone – Taiwan’s HF-2E land-attack cruise missile has reportedly been in service for more than a decade, but has never been seen publicly.

Naval News – The updated design of Taiwan’s New Light Frigate is larger and heavier in order to accommodate more weapon and sensor systems…