Baker Institute – This paper addresses one of the most dangerous, consequential flashpoints on the planet today, and for years into the future: a potential attempt by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to annex Taiwan. The aftermath would likely trigger the worst economic shocks experienced in more than a century, unleashing a cycle of repression and diminishing the quality of life for populations across Asia and beyond, with devastating impacts on American interests and Americans’ well-being. Moreover, China’s annexation of Taiwan could exacerbate regional tensions and extend into a broader, global conflict. At stake are crucial interests such as the semiconductors that power today’s big data world and the national security of U.S. allies and partners. Neighboring states’ responses to PRC expansion could also result in the erosion of American military advantages as well as the destabilization of democracy and the international order. 

Mapping China’s Strategic Space – With an increasingly powerful People’s Republic of China (PRC) under paramount leader Xi Jinping engaging in meteoric military-maritime buildup and pressing disputed sovereignty claims with increasing assertiveness, it is more important than ever to consider Beijing’s “mental map”: how its leaders regard the physical nature of strategic space. As Andrew Rhodes argues cogently, “Being able to ‘think in space’ is a crucial tool for decision-makers, but one that is often deemphasized.” This applies to understanding both how PRC leaders envision China’s strategic space and how it is evolving in practice.

Chinese Maritime Studies Institute – As a part China’s goal to build a fully modernized military by 2035, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is improving its reserve forces through increased defense spending, critical policy changes, and organizational restructuring. Reserve forces (后备力量) encompass the PLA Reserve (预备役部队) and paramilitary forces, such as the militia, which fall under the leadership of the Central Military Commission and can be mobilized by the National Defense Mobilization Department to support combat. The many components that make up China’s fighting force such as active-duty PLA forces, China Coast Guard, and the militia have been studied in depth; however, the PLA Reserve remains an understudied and underreported topic. While the PLA Reserve represents a fraction of the force structure of their active-duty counterparts, recent changes in military reform specific to the PLA Reserve highlight the importance of this relatively small force and the evolving role reservists (预备役人员) may play within the PLA.

The War Zone – Weaponized drones that look and fly like birds may sound like something out of a movie, but they are very real with a long history.

The War Zone – With a longer hull and possible vertical launch cells, the new design is further evidence of China’s rapid submarine developments.

War on the Rocks – Tensions between China and the Philippines have escalated dramatically in recent months around Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the eastern Spratly Islands…But while China has been escalating with the Philippines at unprecedented levels around Second Thomas Shoal, it has exercised striking restraint toward Vietnam’s far larger and more militarized expansion of its South China Sea outposts.

Global Times – The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s second 10,000 ton-class hospital ship recently embarked on a voyage to islands and reefs in the South China Sea to conduct medical rounds and rescue exercises, with experts saying on Thursday that the vessel will enhance the PLA Navy’s logistics capabilities and provide extra public security goods to the international community.

China Maritime Studies Institute – Chinese state media’s Channel 7 recently released a series of videos that described China’s aircraft carriers and the carrier battle groups, including their history, composition, and operational theory.

National Interest – During a Q&A session, an Indian Navy student suggested that China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy) could maintain fleet readiness by rapidly replacing or demoting aging ships instead of facing the maintenance issues typical of older vessels. 

Breaking Defense – With the months-long presence of Chinese warships at Cambodia’s Ream naval base and a major bilateral military exercise there in May, China’s newest overseas military facility appears to be up and running, confirming years of suspicions about China’s presence in the Southeast Asian country.

China Maritime Studies Institute – Submarine performance is not just measured in technical terms, but also in how crews operate over time. As the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) increasingly deploys its submarine force beyond the near seas on long-distance combat readiness and training missions, studying the force’s human components benefits a broader understanding its overall effectiveness. This report explores work and living conditions, crew endurance, service culture, political requirements, and approaches to resolving human issues in the submarine force. An inherently dangerous and challenging profession, the submarine force has gradually developed numerous solutions to address various challenges to prevent non-combat attrition among crews. Life and duty in the “Dragon Palace,” both an internal joke and the overarching embodiment of PLAN submarine culture, reveals a professional community focused on secrecy, safety, and expertise that is working to enhance its human performance.

CSIS – China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking fears that tensions could erupt into outright conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of an invasion, but Beijing has options besides invading to coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan. One major step China could take is a “gray zone” quarantine led not by its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) but by its coast guard and other law enforcement forces. Rather than sealing off the island, a quarantine would aim to demonstrate China’s ability to exert control over Taiwan. A quarantine is more feasible for China and more likely than an invasion or blockade in the near term; it also presents unique challenges in terms of how Taiwan and the international community can respond. This brief explores two hypothetical maritime quarantine scenarios.

Global Times – A series of biomimetic submersibles independently developed by China have started practical deployment in the South China Sea, with larger variants for armed reconnaissance missions under development.

USNI News – Chinese forces seized Philippine small boats and firearms during Monday’s botched resupply attempt to BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) at Second Thomas Shoal, Philippine military officials confirmed.

USNI News – A Chinese amphibious warship is operating near a disputed South China Sea feature that has been the site of a standoff between Chinese and Philippine Coast Guards.

The War Zone – Taiwan said it was monitoring the submarine that was spotted by fishermen when it came to the surface and began moving under escort in the Taiwan Strait around dawn today.

Naval News – New carrier represents the next stage for China’s amphibious assault capabilities. Design will integrate catapult and fixed wing drones supporting amphibious operations.

Atlantic Council – By broadcasting the truth of Chinese vulnerabilities and Taiwanese strengths across multiple channels, Taiwan’s allies and partners can blunt the potency of Chinese propaganda and pave the way for a more informed and resilient approach to supporting Taiwan’s security, as well as stability across the Indo-Pacific.

Defense News – Strategists are right to ask if the U.S. — or more broadly the West — understands the extent to which China values sea power as an enabler for grand strategy. Are we mirroring or projecting our reasonable and rational expectations onto Beijing?

War on the Rocks – A denial theory of victory does not guarantee success, but it offers the best chance to strike an effective balance between the desire to win the war and the imperative to manage escalation.

War on the Rocks – Having spent years conducting extensive wargames with senior U.S. and allied government officials on the various cross-strait threat scenarios, I am confident, as I write in my recently released book World on the Brink, that an economic blockade in lieu of a full-scale military invasion has a low probability of success and, therefore, Beijing is unlikely to pursue such an operation and, indeed, hasn’t attempted it yet even though it has had the capability to do so for decades. In fact, an attempted economic blockade would almost inevitably lead to war or a humiliating defeat by China. 

Defense Opinion – U.S. investment money may have helped bankroll China’s aircraft carrier program by providing financial liquidity in 2018 and 2019 to complete its second flattop, Shandong, giving the country a capability that can be used to further threaten Taiwan and its neighbors.

The War Zone – The first example of a new class of Chinese warship with a large open flight deck, commonly referred to as the Type 076, is steadily taking shape. Generally described as an amphibious assault ship, there have long been reports that the vessel could feature catapults and arresting gear to support an air wing that includes uncrewed combat air vehicles (UCAV) and other fixed-wing drones.

Council on Geostrategy – The People’s Republic of China’s naval build-up over the past decade has been substantial. Once a maritime minnow, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) – the Chinese navy – has grown into a shark. And that shark is increasingly less constrained. Propelled by a growing auxiliary fleet, the PLAN is becoming increasingly mobile, able to operate well beyond the PRC’s shores and adjacent seas. The PLAN may have some way to go to meet the might of the United States (US) Navy or even navies such as the Royal Navy or Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force, especially if supporting the US Navy, but it will only be a matter of time until large Chinese expeditionary fleets are found regularly operating in the world’s oceans.