New Heights of Russian Hypocrisy and “Unlawfare” in the Black Sea

CIMSEC – Despite Russia continuing to bomb civilians and target hospitals amid an aggressive war that is itself illegal, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has taken the time to issue a press statement complaining about Ukrainian mines in the Black Sea. Specifically, the FSB claims that the Ukrainian Navy has violated international law because a storm broke loose some of the submarine mines used to protect Ukrainian ports from the Russian invasion. Interestingly, Russia is claiming that Ukraine has contravened the provisions of the 1907 Hague Convention (VIII) on submarine mining, yet neither Russia nor Ukraine is actually a party to that Convention.

The Russian Baltic Fleet – Organisation and role within the Armed Forces in 2020

Swedish Defense Research Agency – The role of the Baltic Fleet has varied over time – ranging from projecting naval power on the world’s oceans, to being a force predominantly adapted for coastal defence. In this report, the role in 2020 of the Baltic Fleet within the Armed Forces is thoroughly examined, detailed and analysed. The result is more complex than that represented by the dichotomy between an oceangoing and a coastal naval force. In 2020, paradoxically, shore-based capabilities in the Kaliningrad region constitute a large part of the Baltic Fleet’s organisation, reflecting the significant role of the Baltic Fleet in the defence of Russia’s western border. However, this is at the same time only partly reflected in the Baltic Fleet’s ship inventory, as it retains a firm capability to conduct out-of-area operations. In addition, in the ongoing modernisation of the Russian Navy, the Baltic Fleet takes a prominent position due to its proximity to several key Russian naval educational and shipbuilding facilities in the Russian naval capital of Saint Petersburg.

Japan Spotted Loaded-Up Russian Amphibious Warships That May Be Headed To Ukraine

War Zone – According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense, four heavily laden Russian amphibious warships recently sailed by the country’s Home Islands and were heading west. The idea here is that they may be headed to Europe to bolster Russia’s struggling invasion operation in Ukraine. The Japan MoD released an image of one of the ships showing it packed with military vehicles on its deck. 

Two Civilian Vessels Hit By Russian Missiles Off Odessa

Naval News – Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence just reported that two commercial vessels were hit by Russian fire off the port of Odessa in Southern Ukraine. Panama flagged bulk carrier NAMURA QUEEN (IMO: 9841299) was reportedly struck by a missile while Moldova flagged bunker tanker MILLENNIUM SPIRIT was hit by at least one missile as well. Ukraine dispatched its coast guard to conduct search and rescue (SAR) operations.

Ukraine on High Alert as Russian Naval Exercise Threatens to Block Parts of the Black Sea

USNI News – An upcoming Russian naval exercise has Ukraine worried, as the United States predicts a Russian invasion of the country could come any day. The Russian exercise, which comes during continued tension between Russian and Ukraine, will block parts of the Black Sea, the Sea of Azoz and the Kerch Strait, leading the Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs to put out a statement in protest.

Gators in Motion: Demystifying Recent Russian Amphibious Activity

CIMSEC – At the time of publishing on 10 February the Baltic and Northern Fleet amphibious forces have arrived in the Black Sea. However, these forces would only augment existing Black Sea Fleet capability and so should not be used as an indicator of Russian readiness for offensive action. On the other hand, these amphibious forces are unlikely to be a feint; the Russians have demonstrated the capability to land battalion-scale forces in the region, and such a landing fits into their theory and practice.

It Looks Like Russia Wants To All But Wall Off Ukraine’s Coastlines Next Week

War Zone – The Russian government has reportedly issued notices warning mariners and aviators to avoid significant portions of the northern end of the Black Sea, as well as the adjacent Sea of Azov, next week ostensibly due to upcoming live-fire naval exercises. The obvious concern is that this could amount to a de facto blockade of Ukraine’s southern coastlines, which in turn might be part of preparations for new large-scale Russian military intervention into that country.