War Zone – The ability to launch their ballistic missiles from the South China Sea or Bohai Sea would be a huge capability increase for China’s SSBN force.
Author Archives: Naval Open Source Intelligence (NOSI)
A Gnawing Hunger: Food Policy and Great Power Conflict, A U.S.-China Case Study
The Strategy Bridge – While much analysis has focused on how fishing and other related maritime resource disputes play into great power competition and the national security implications for the U.S., comparatively little analysis has focused on the impacts of any disruption of not only the Chinese fishing fleet but China’s international food imports in the event of a Pacific conflict. Although China remains more vulnerable than the U.S. to food disruption in such a scenario, the ripple effects of a Pacific war will force China, regional actors, and even the U.S. to carefully manage national food policies, with drastic consequences should their attempts fail. In a future Pacific conflict, food policy and management by all parties is, to paraphrase Sir Michael Howard, a likely root of either victory or defeat for any unprepared participants.
A Japanese Seaplane Could Be The Difference-Maker For the US Military
War On The Rocks – As the United States increasingly focuses on competition in the Indo-Pacific, and as elements of the U.S. military look specifically to amphibious aircraft, it would do well to consider acquiring handy Japanese seaplanes.
Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2021
Office of the Secretary of Defense – Annual Report to Congress.
First Submarine To Use New Stealth Technology
Naval News – The Royal Navy’s new Dreadnought Class submarine promises to be the stealthiest yet. The first two boats, HMS Dreadnought and HMS Valiant, are already under construction. They are destined to take over Britain’s nuclear deterrent from the 2030s. They incorporate significant changes in the design compared to other types.
Extending That ‘Loving Feeling’ To Undersea Warfare
War on the Rocks – The Hollywood blockbuster “Top Gun” starring Tom Cruise was a potent recruiting advertisement for aviators. One of its most memorable scenes was of a chorus of pilots at the bar of an Officer’s Club singing “You’ve Lost that Loving Feeling” to a bemused Kelly McGillis…It is time to extend that “loving feeling” to submarine warfare — including, and perhaps especially, to the submarine forces of U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region.
Delivering a stronger Navy, faster
Australian Strategic Policy Institute – Serious risks are being realised in the Royal Australian Navy’s twin transitions in its surface combatant and submarine fleets. As Australia’s strategic circumstances become more dangerous, Defence needs to adopt hedging measures to actively address the capability risks in its acquisition plans.
(Thanks to Alain)
The Implications of Simultaneous Conflicts in South Korea and Taiwan
CIMSEC – Although the United States was able to deter China from invading Taiwan in 1950 despite its concurrent commitment of forces to defend South Korea against North Korean aggression, it may not be so successful today or in the near future given the current trend in the balance of military power.
Navy Deployed USS Hershel ‘Woody’ Williams Near Major African Drug Trafficking Routes
USNI News – The Navy is taking its sole ship assigned to U.S. Africa Command to places the service hasn’t been in almost a decade – including a key chokepoint that’s become a major opioid drug trafficking route.
The Navy Isn’t Prepared To Face The Growing Diesel Submarine Threat
War Zone – A veteran submarine hunter explains how the proliferation of ever more capable diesel-electric submarines is a major problem for the U.S. Navy.
More Than Just a Fire: The Bonnie Dick Reveals a Navy in Shambles
War on the Rocks – The final assessment of the USS Bonhomme Richard fire reveals that the U.S. Navy is hobbled by questionable training, a shortage of personnel, and a general unpreparedness to fight and prevail in a war. If they are to play a meaningful role in a cross-strait conflict, U.S. ships must be able to fight in range of Chinese missiles. The Bonhomme Richard disaster, a fire in the port of San Diego, might not seem relevant here, but it is: It demonstrates the Navy’s egregious damage-control inadequacies. If these are left unaddressed, the Navy will face a serious erosion of its combat power after only a handful of Chinese missile barrages.
New Stealth Fighters, Aircraft Carriers And UCAVs: Dissecting The Real State Of China’s Naval Aviation
The Aviationist – We interviewed Chinese military aviation expert Andreas Rupprecht to learn more about the progress of the PLAN Naval Aviation.
How War With China Begins
The Atlantic – A cold war is already under way. The question is whether Washington can deter Beijing from initiating a hot one.
Investigation Concludes USS Connecticut Grounded on Uncharted Seamount in South China Sea
USNI News – Investigators have determined USS Connecticut (SSN-22) hit an uncharted seamount that grounded the nuclear attack submarine on the underwater feature in the South China Sea Navy
Chinese Ferry Tales: The PLA’s Use of Civilian Shipping in Support of Over-the-Shore Logistics
Chinese Maritime Studies Institute – The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has long provided indications it will use civilian shipping in direct support of a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan. To date, however, there has been little effort to gauge the PLA’s actual ability to leverage China’s commercial fleet in the most challenging part of any such campaign—operations over-the-shore. Drawing from ship tracking data, satellite imagery, media reporting, and the writings of PLA experts, this report analyzes recent military-civil fusion exercises and training to assess current capabilities.
What’s At Stake In The Indo-Pacific
USNI Proceedings – What happens at sea will determine what happens on land across the region.
Don’t Trust China In The South China Sea
1945 – James Holmes writes that history has proved, time and again, that CCP commitments to lofty principles are perishable. The leadership honors them as long as it needs them, and discards them when it doesn’t.
‘Lightning Carriers’ Could Be Lightweights in an Asian War
War on the Rocks – Earlier this month, U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II fighters embarked on the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force ship JS Izumo as a capability validation…It is also a milestone on a path that is establishing smaller aircraft carriers equipped with the F-35B Lightning II, or “Lightning carriers,” as the new capital ships of Asia.
The unintended consequences of the AUKUS deal
Defense News – A semi-permanent marriage between Russia’s military design genius and China’s industrial production acumen on large projects may be the most concerning legacy of the AUKUS deal.
Navy Aviation Vision 2030-2035
US Navy – The following is the Navy Aviation Vision 2030-2035 released this week by the Navy.
China’s New Carrier-Based Stealth Fighter Makes First Flight
The Aviationist – China has flown the carrier variant of its FC-31 stealth fighter, possibly dubbed J-35 (and bearing some resemblance to the F-35C).
Navigate by the Stars—From Beneath the Waves
USNI Proceedings – A periscope can be a fine stand-in for a sextant.
Crucial mission: The United States must shore up its sea power
The Hill – James Holmes says the US Navy must fix its problems — and burnish its good name for seamanship and tactical acumen.
China’s Massive New Aircraft Carrier Is As Big As It Can Be
Naval News – Aircraft carriers are at the vanguard of China’s incredible naval expansion A new, larger super-carrier is being built near Shanghai. Analysis of radar satellite imagery shows that it is as large as China’s new bases allow.
Pentagon has a Pacific posture predicament
Nikkei Asia – White House and admirals can’t agree on how to deter China.
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