Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat

Baker Institute – This paper addresses one of the most dangerous, consequential flashpoints on the planet today, and for years into the future: a potential attempt by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to annex Taiwan. The aftermath would likely trigger the worst economic shocks experienced in more than a century, unleashing a cycle of repression and diminishing the quality of life for populations across Asia and beyond, with devastating impacts on American interests and Americans’ well-being. Moreover, China’s annexation of Taiwan could exacerbate regional tensions and extend into a broader, global conflict. At stake are crucial interests such as the semiconductors that power today’s big data world and the national security of U.S. allies and partners. Neighboring states’ responses to PRC expansion could also result in the erosion of American military advantages as well as the destabilization of democracy and the international order. 

Geography Matters, Time Collides: Mapping China’s Maritime Strategic Space under Xi

Mapping China’s Strategic Space – With an increasingly powerful People’s Republic of China (PRC) under paramount leader Xi Jinping engaging in meteoric military-maritime buildup and pressing disputed sovereignty claims with increasing assertiveness, it is more important than ever to consider Beijing’s “mental map”: how its leaders regard the physical nature of strategic space. As Andrew Rhodes argues cogently, “Being able to ‘think in space’ is a crucial tool for decision-makers, but one that is often deemphasized.” This applies to understanding both how PRC leaders envision China’s strategic space and how it is evolving in practice.

Crew of USS Mason Adapted to Demands of Intense Red Sea Deployment, Sailors Say

USNI News – When sailors assigned to USS Mason (DDG-87) were in workups last year, many expected a standard Mediterranean Sea deployment…But after Hamas launched attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7 and the Yemen-based Houthis started attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea in response to Israel’s ongoing bombardment of the Gaza strip, the destroyer quickly became one of several U.S. warships to engage in sustained naval combat for the first time since World War II. 

CMSI Note #7: PLA Navy Reserve: Out of the Shadows and into the Forefront?

Chinese Maritime Studies Institute – As a part China’s goal to build a fully modernized military by 2035, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is improving its reserve forces through increased defense spending, critical policy changes, and organizational restructuring. Reserve forces (后备力量) encompass the PLA Reserve (预备役部队) and paramilitary forces, such as the militia, which fall under the leadership of the Central Military Commission and can be mobilized by the National Defense Mobilization Department to support combat. The many components that make up China’s fighting force such as active-duty PLA forces, China Coast Guard, and the militia have been studied in depth; however, the PLA Reserve remains an understudied and underreported topic. While the PLA Reserve represents a fraction of the force structure of their active-duty counterparts, recent changes in military reform specific to the PLA Reserve highlight the importance of this relatively small force and the evolving role reservists (预备役人员) may play within the PLA.

The Calm Before the Swarm: Drone Warfare at Sea in the Age of the Missile

War on the Rocks – We are not yet at a paradigm-shifting moment in the role of autonomous or robotic systems at sea. Nor are we likely to reach a revolutionary precipice within the period in which the U.S. Navy must begin making the transition to a truly hybrid fleet — that is, the integration of autonomous platforms designed to operate as part of an ocean-going battle force. This means the Navy’s approach to acquiring and fielding unmanned systems for deployment at sea should ultimately reinforce and support the maritime domain’s still-dominant weapons system: long-range anti-ship missiles.

Unmanned Maritime Systems and Warships: Interpretations Under the Law of the Sea

CIMSEC – Treating unmanned vessels as warships requires examining whether they meet the definition of a warship under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The legal status of naval vessels under UNCLOS varies widely depending on whether a navy operates its ships as warships, non-commercial government vessels, or accessories to conventional warships.        

This paper discusses whether unmanned systems can be considered warships under UNCLOS, especially with today’s voracious appetite for developing the technology; however, the legal status of unmanned vessels as warships remains uncertain. International agreements on the legal status of unmanned vessels would help establish the legitimacy of naval operations employing them.

The US says it has successfully practiced using a low-cost bomb to sink a major surface ship. China is taking note

CNN – A very specialized part of the world’s largest naval drills off the northern Hawaiian island of Kauai is gaining attention on both sides of the Pacific. Earlier this month, the US and allies practiced taking out a large surface ship with long-range weapons, including, for the first time, a US Air Force B-2 bomber.