USNI News – An upcoming Russian naval exercise has Ukraine worried, as the United States predicts a Russian invasion of the country could come any day. The Russian exercise, which comes during continued tension between Russian and Ukraine, will block parts of the Black Sea, the Sea of Azoz and the Kerch Strait, leading the Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs to put out a statement in protest.

CIMSEC – At the time of publishing on 10 February the Baltic and Northern Fleet amphibious forces have arrived in the Black Sea. However, these forces would only augment existing Black Sea Fleet capability and so should not be used as an indicator of Russian readiness for offensive action. On the other hand, these amphibious forces are unlikely to be a feint; the Russians have demonstrated the capability to land battalion-scale forces in the region, and such a landing fits into their theory and practice.

National Interest – Russia-watchers have been quick to invoke the Cuban Missile Crisis precedent, which implies that Russia would station nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles of some type in the Caribbean. But history may not repeat itself.

War Zone – The Russian government has reportedly issued notices warning mariners and aviators to avoid significant portions of the northern end of the Black Sea, as well as the adjacent Sea of Azov, next week ostensibly due to upcoming live-fire naval exercises. The obvious concern is that this could amount to a de facto blockade of Ukraine’s southern coastlines, which in turn might be part of preparations for new large-scale Russian military intervention into that country.

Naval News – Russia’s military build-up around Ukraine is moving into a new phase. Emerging from under a veil of ‘drills’, 6 landing ships and a submarine are now sailing into the Black Sea.

USNI News – A group of three Russian warships capable of landing tanks and troops ashore is now in the Black Sea, as the Russian Navy begins to mass ships in the Mediterranean.