Crippled Capacity: How Weak Maritime Enforcement Emboldened Answar Al-Sunna

CIMSEC – Two months ago, the insurgent group Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa(“Ansar al-Sunna”) attacked the strategic port of Mocímboa da Praia in Mozambique for the second time in six months. Unlike the day-long siege on March 23rd, Ansar al-Sunna has occupied Mocímboa da Praia since August 13th, indicating a significant escalation in insurgent capabilities.

Unusual Submarine Likely To Increase Threat From North Korea

Naval News – The World’s only operational conventionally powered ballistic missile submarine (SSB) may soon emerge in North Korea. The Romeo-Mod submarine, also known as Sinpo-C, was first revealed on North Korean TV on July 23 2019. It will likely be armed with three Pukguksong-3 missiles which are the hermit kingdom’s best performing. So it will, on paper, pose a serious threat to U.S. and allied targets in the region. But how real is the threat?

War Studies Primer

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Look at slides 2 and 3 in the War Studies Primer for its Table of Contents, and then choose a lecture to read and enjoy.

Hudson Recommends 581 Ships, New Class of Corvette as Part of Input to Pentagon Fleet Plan

USNI News – The first of three inputs to the Pentagon’s Future Naval Force Study was released this week, the Hudson Institute is calling for a future U.S. Navy fleet of 581 battle force ships through the addition of 80 corvettes, 99 unmanned surface vessels, 40 unmanned submarines and 27 new small amphibious ships

Full report is here: American Sea Power at a Crossroads: A Plan to Restore the US Navy’s Maritime Advantage

‘Blue Homeland’ and the Irredentist Future of Turkish Foreign Policy

War on the Rocks – Turkey and Greece, two NATO allies, nearly experienced a full-fledged military conflict in August. Two of their warships collided during a naval standoff over hydrocarbon exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean. This follows a similar naval incident in June between three Turkish vessels and the frigate of another NATO ally, France, prompting an inquiry that the alliance has been trying to keep under wraps to prevent further discord among its ranks. Behind these incidents lies Turkey’s embrace of an assertive naval concept, namely the “blue homeland,” that is poised to disrupt the transatlantic alliance in the years to come.

Aiki in the South China Sea: Fresh Asymmetric Approaches and Sea Lane Vulnerabilities

CIMSECAiki is a fundamental principle in Japanese martial arts philosophy that encapsulates the idea of using minimal exertion and control to negate or redirect an adversary’s strength to achieve advantage. The legitimacy of the CCP’s leadership rests on a core foundation of economic strength and growth, as well as prestige. Due to China’s geography, the principal artery of this economic growth is through the maritime approaches of the SCS. The most direct way to affect CCP behavior is to consider how the free flow of goods and energy at sea through the maritime approaches of the SCS may be altered. And by alternating these maritime flows, further impacts and restructuring of trade-flows and global supply chains may also occur.

Icarus Aerospace Continues Development Of Anti-Submarine Warfare Capability For Their Wasp-M Aircraft

Aviationist – Icarus Aerospace announced last week the partnership with CAE Defence & Security to provide their Wasp-M, the fully militarized version of their OV-10 Bronco-revamp called TAV (Tactical Air Vehicle), with the company’s digital Magnetic Anomaly Detection-Extended Role (MAD-XR) system, designed with reduced size, weight, and power requirements to allow smaller platforms such as unmanned aerial systems (UASs), helicopters and smaller fixed-wing aircraft to carry a MAD sensor for Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) missions.

(Thanks to Alain)

How the Tragic Sinking of Two Nuclear Submarines Transformed the U.S. Navy

National Interest – James Holmes writes that the Thresher and Scorpion crews were lost at sea is a tragedy. That the U.S. Navy learned from the disasters and made itself better means they did not die in vain. Machiavelli would nod knowingly at the institutional inertia that preceded the accidents—and salute the learning process that followed.

These Are The Pentagon’s Highly Questionable Proposals For A Navy With More Than 500 Ships

War Zone – The U.S. Navy’s forthcoming force structure review may call for a fleet with up to 534 ships and submarines, including various kinds of unmanned vessels. The is far bigger than the existing Congressionally-mandated goal of a 355-ship fleet, which has long proven to be a struggle for the service to achieve. Plans for an even larger force could run into significant budgetary, recruiting, sustainment, and other hurdles. 

Between Scylla and Charybdis: ASEAN and the U.S.-China Contest for the South China Sea

CIMSEC – ASEAN and its members are in an increasingly dangerous dilemma. They are under mounting pressure to choose between the U.S. and China in their competition for political and military preeminence in the region. In response, ASEAN member states are maneuvering to maintain their ‘neutrality’ and pursue ASEAN ‘centrality’ in international affairs affecting the region. Their perspectives and roles in this great power competition merit closer examination, as well as how they are adapting to it, and what—if anything—ASEAN can do.

Don’t Send This Aircraft Carrier to the Persian Gulf

National Interest – That’s James Holme’s advice to senior decisionmakers who appear set on deploying the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower to the Persian Gulf region just six months after the flattop completed an epic seven-month cruise during which the crew broke all records for consecutive days at sea. Crewmembers spent 205 days at sea, enjoying zero R&R time in port as the ship skirted the pandemic.

India’s Strategy For the Indian Ocean in Light of COVID-19 and Confrontation With China

CIMSEC – Paradoxically, though COVID-19 has weakened India’s economic ability to fund its naval infrastructure and assets program for the Indian Ocean, it has enabled India to strengthen its links with Indian Ocean micro-states through the humanitarian assistance delivered by the navy. Meanwhile, land confrontation with China at Galwan has encouraged India to deepen its military links with other maritime powers operating in the Indian Ocean. In an unstated but evident balancing fashion, this is enabling India to improve its maritime position in the Indian Ocean vis-à-vis China.

The Pathway Toward Containment: Fleet Actions for the United States and ASEAN Plus 5

CIMSEC – The coalition model in the Gulf of Aden helped offset the investment the U.S. had to make in terms of military capability and national treasure. As global commerce routes travel through the Gulf of Aden, it rightfully took a globally-sourced solution to solve the situation. Now as the rules-based system is being challenged in the region of Southeast Asia, it should take a Southeast Asian solution, with outside partners offering help. Only with partners and allies can nations begin to push back the tide of revisionist China and uphold the international rule of law.