The F-35 accident report – a reality check for UK Carrier Strike

Navy Lookout – On 17th November 2021, an F-35B ditched into the sea on take-off from HMS Queen Elizabeth in the Eastern Mediterranean during operation FORTIS / CSG21. The basic cause of the accident was understood very quickly but the full board of enquiry report published recently highlights multiple contributing factors and reveals broader issues with UK Carrier Strike capability.

Campaign of Denial: Strengthening Simultaneous Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and Europe

CNAS: This report begins with a discussion of how the United States lost sight of great-power deterrence and why its legacy presence-reliant approach to deterrence is unsuited to the current challenge. Instead, the department should embrace deterrence by denial to improve simultaneous deterrence of China and Russia in the near term without consuming resources earmarked for modernization. The report redefines campaigning to demonstrate how it could support a denial strategy through the rigorous linkage of campaigning to warfighting. It develops a framework for how the U.S. Department of Defense could implement this revised approach to campaigning. The framework is applied to the Indo-Pacific and Europe to demonstrate how the United States can reimagine its forces and capabilities, posture, and activities to simultaneously deter China from aggressing against Taiwan and Russia from aggressing against the Baltics. These plans are analyzed to determine the implications of two-theater deterrence for U.S. defense strategy, peacetime activities, and resource management. Finally, the report concludes with recommendations for the DoD and Congress on how to manage the simultaneous threat of two major adversaries in the near term.

These technologies could defeat China’s missile barrage and defend Taiwan

Breaking Defense – Earlier this year, a group of experts from RAND and the Special Competitive Studies Project launched a new wargame effort around China’s invasion of Taiwan — but unlike most DC-based wargames, this effort heavily involved members of the commercial technology sector, in order to understand what near-term capabilities might be brought to bear on a Taiwan scenario. In the exclusive analysis below, Jim Mitre of RAND and Ylber Bajraktari of SCSP lay out their key findings.

A Divorce Between the Navy and Cyber Command Would be Dangerous

War on the Rocks – Frustrated by reports of the U.S. Navy’s underperformance in cyber operations, Congress has made an unusual request. The Fiscal Year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act instructs the secretary of defense to report to Congress by 2024 on whether the Navy should continue contributing forces to U.S. Cyber Command. This request raises the unprecedented possibility that an armed service would not contribute forces to a joint combatant command. 

“Strategic” Cruise Missile Tested From North Korea’s New Corvette

War Zone – North Korea’s state-run media has released new photos of the country’s most modern surface combatant, known in the West as the Amnok class corvette, which is also the largest operated by the Korean People’s Navy. Of particular interest is that the warship is armed with cruise missiles, which can likely be fitted with nuclear warheads, adding yet another platform to North Korea’s diverse and growing strategic arsenal.

The U.S. Navy Is Now Paying A Price For Its Littoral Combat Ship Mistakes

1945 – As so often, Admiral Jim Stavridis called it right. Of this week’s decommissioning of USS Sioux City, a Freedom-class littoral combat ship (LCS), after less than five years’ service, the retired NATO supreme allied commander and Fletcher School dean declared: “Hard to figure this one out . . . . Hate to see anything decommissioned when we are so far behind China in overall ship count.” 

Logistics Interdiction for Taiwan Unification Campaigns

War on the Rocks – If China attacks Taiwan, its ability to move the requisite levels of troops and supplies in a contested environment will be critical in determining its success. This makes logistics interdiction is an important, yet understudied, consideration. The good news for Western military planners is that whether the People’s Liberation Army launches a joint firepower strike campaign, a joint blockade campaign, or joint island landing campaign, its logistics capabilities would likely constitute a major weakness. This, at least, is the conclusion we drew from examining Chinese and Western military doctrine, studying similar historical campaigns, and conducting supply chain simulations.

Resupply mission for BRP Sierra Madre happening ‘soon’

ABS-CBN – The rotation and resupply (RORE) mission to the BRP Sierra Madre — the Philippines’ lone outpost in the Ayungin Shoal — is set to commence “soon,” the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said on Saturday, about 2 weeks after China meddled the operations by launching water cannons and nearly ramming into Manila’s resupply vessels.

China Maritime Report No. 30: A Brief Technical History of PLAN Nuclear Submarines

China Maritime Studies Institute – After nearly 50 years since the first Type 091 SSN was commissioned, China is finally on the verge of producing world-class nuclear-powered submarines. This report argues that the propulsion, quieting, sensors, and weapons capabilities of the Type 095 SSGN could approach Russia’s Improved Akula I class SSN. The Type 095 will likely be equipped with a pump jet propulsor, a freefloating horizontal raft, a hybrid propulsion system, and 12-18 vertical launch system tubes able to accommodate anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles. China’s newest SSBN, the Type 096, will likewise see significant improvements over its predecessor, with the potential to compare favorably to Russia’s Dolgorukiy class SSBN in the areas of propulsion, sensors, and weapons, but more like the Improved Akula I in terms of quieting. If this analysis is correct, the introduction of the Type 095 and Type 096 would have profound implications for U.S. undersea security.