War on the Rocks – The Chinese military exercises that began on Aug. 3, 2022, have initiated the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis. The most immediate reason for this was Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. But this is a bigger crisis, driven by bigger factors. There has been a steady erosion in Sino-American relations and — not unrelated — a shift in the nature of U.S.-Taiwan relations that Beijing finds deeply threatening. As a result, expectations of a rapid resolution to the crisis are chimeric, as too are blithe expectations of a quick return to the status quo ante.
Decisionmaking at the Speed of the Digital Era
CSIS – The United States has stated it is in a strategic competition with China. Analysts and actors identify the need to rapidly iterate through concepts and capabilities to develop new, more effective means of engaging in that competition. At present, however, the Department of Defense underutilizes publicly available data and the software development community to build tools that enable faster modeling, hypothesis testing, and variability analysis than traditional wargaming or modeling alone. This brief describes the speed and utility of developing a simple software tool to stress test a hypothetical People’s Republic of China (PRC) surprise attack against U.S. facilities in the Indo-Pacific.
Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China
RAND – China’s coercive options for Taiwan range from routine violations of Taiwan’s declared Air Defense Identification Zone to a full-scale invasion. Within the spectrum are efforts to isolate Taiwan to prevent it from sending exports or receiving imports. Typically, this would be called a blockade. However, because China does not view the government on Taiwan as sovereign and thus rejects the idea that a state of war could exist, blockadeis not the correct term. Therefore, in this report, the authors examine how China might implement a quarantine of Taiwan. Unlike in a blockade scenario, China’s goals for the quarantine would not be to completely cut off food and supplies to Taiwan, but rather to demonstrate de facto sovereignty by controlling the air and maritime space around the island, as well as which cargo deliveries, ships, aircraft, and people have access to Taiwan.
Russian Navy Crews Are Under Orders To Avoid The Ukrainian Coast
Forbes – The commanders of the Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet are scared to send their surviving surface warships beyond sight of the Crimean coast.
Russia’s naval doctrine may call for challenging the West, but does it have the shipyards?
Breaking Defense – Russia’s new maritime doctrine signals its intent to challenge the United States and allies on the seas, but there is skepticism about the country’s ability to build a fleet capable of doing that given its limited options for shipyards and weakened supply chains.
ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho Deploys For The First Time
Naval News – On August 16th, the Republic of Korea Navy confirmed that its first ship-in-class KSS III ballistic missile submarine, ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho, has been operationally deployed for the first time. The feat is the culmination of three years of testing and trials following the submarine’s launch in 2018.
A New DESRON Staff – Beyond the Composite Warfare Commander
CIMSEC – A destroyer squadron (DESRON) staff’s employment as a Sea Combat Commander in the Composite Warfare Commander (CWC) construct is unnecessarily narrow and prevents a more lethal and agile strike group. Tomorrow’s fight requires multiple manned, trained, and certified command elements. These elements should be capable of maneuvering and employing combat power. This combat power is required to support area-denial operations, assure the defense of a high-value unit, or conduct domain-coordinated advance force operations to sanitize an operating area in advance of the main body. This ability to diffuse command and control, disperse combat power, and contribute to sea control operations is imperative to fully realize the Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) concept.
The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China
RAND – The authors develop two scenarios of systemic U.S.-China conflict. The first scenario features a low-intensity conflict that unfolds across much of the world, across many domains, and over many years. The second features a high-intensity war that evolves out of the low-intensity war. The high-intensity war scenario envisions aggressive actions by both countries to destroy the warfighting capability of the adversary and carries an extremely high risk of escalation to the most destructive levels.
Russian Navy Base At Sevastopol Defended By Inflatable S-400 Missiles
Covert Shores – Russia’s main naval base in the Black Sea, Sevastopol, is guarded by the latest S-400 air-defense system. The real S-400 missiles have recently been moved from their permanent launch site however. Russian TV has shown inflatable replacements at the site. These are decoys, a common and well-publicised Russian tactic.
(Thanks to Alain)
Future Ballistic Missile Submarine Concept Unveiled At Russian Arms Expo
War Zone – Russia’s Arktur design features a number of interesting elements, including a new drive concept and what appear to be unmanned guard submarines.
Pushing Back Against China’s New Normal in the Taiwan Strait
War on the Rocks – It would be a mistake — perhaps a deadly one — for Washington to dismiss Beijing’s reaction to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as just another temper tantrum.
China Promises ‘Taiwan Encirclement’ Drills Will Continue
War Zone – China responded to the latest visit to Taiwan by U.S. lawmakers with military drills it says will be ongoing.
Inside the War Between Trump and His Generals
New Yorker – How Mark Milley and others in the Pentagon handled the national-security threat posed by their own Commander-in-Chief.
The Harriers Are Gone But Thailand’s Unlikely Aircraft Carrier Sails On
War Zone – For a while, Thailand had a carrier-borne Harrier jump-jet capability that was totally unique in Southeast Asia.
Navy Embarked MH-60R Helicopter Aboard Coast Guard Cutter
War Zone – The experiment of embarking a top-end Navy MH-60R Seahawk aboard a Legend-class cutter is likely a glimpse of the future.
HMS Lancaster sails for three years forward-deployed in the Gulf
Navy Lookout – HMS Lancaster sails from Portsmouth on Monday 15th August and will not return home for three years, being forward-deployed in the Middle East and based in Bahrain.
Innovation: People Are More Important than Technology
USNI Proceedings – Innovation is an important part of national security, but people are key.
New US Marine regiment shows off capabilities at RIMPAC ahead of fall experimentation blitz
Defense News – A new U.S. Marine Corps regiment has shown how it can protect a carrier strike group while navigating through a strait, using only sensors, an unmanned truck armed with anti-ship missiles, and a fires and air detection unit.
China’s Newest Attack Submarine Now Stationed Near Taiwan
Naval News – China’s East Sea Fleet, across from Taiwan, has received a new submarine. The boat is unlike any currently in service, being distinguished by a radically angled sail.
A bloody mess’ with ‘terrible loss of life’: How a China-US conflict over Taiwan could play out
Breaking Defense – Early results from a DC think tank’s wargame suggest the US would prevail in defending Taiwan from China, but at a heavy cost that would leave it ill-prepared for new threats from Russia or Iran.
PLA to conduct regular combat readiness security patrol in Taiwan Straits
Global Times – The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command on Wednesday announced it will conduct regular combat readiness security patrols in the Taiwan Straits after declaring a successful conclusion of recent drills around the island, which experts said indicates that the PLA is ready for combat whenever national sovereignty and territorial integrity is threatened.
Naval Gunfire Liaisons and 21st Century Fires
CIMSEC – This article will discuss the role of the Naval Gunfire Liaison Officer (NGLO) as one human in a JADC2-enabled theater. Any conversation about fires, lethality, and the Pacific leads either implicitly or explicitly to considerations of how naval vessels can support maneuver forces ashore. However, this legacy — maritime fires directed against terrestrial objectives — is now only one part of the equation. As concepts evolve for potential wars in the Pacific, the NGLO can provide maritime expertise that improves the integration of joint, multi-domain fires at the tactical and operational levels of war.
New Chinese Drills Spark Fears Of Prolonged Squeeze On Taiwan
War Zone – The Pentagon warns that China’s military actions are trying to intimidate Taiwan and the West and create a “new normal.”
Moving On After AUKUS: Working With France in the Indo-Pacific
War on the Rocks – As relationships thaw in the aftermath of establishing AUKUS, now is an opportune moment to consider ways that France might join the non-nuclear aspects of the framework.
MBS: despot in the desert
The Economist / 1843 – A volatile millennial wields absolute power in Saudi Arabia. What will he do next?
NOSI - Naval Open Source Intelligence™ 
You must be logged in to post a comment.