Gators in Motion: Demystifying Recent Russian Amphibious Activity

CIMSEC – At the time of publishing on 10 February the Baltic and Northern Fleet amphibious forces have arrived in the Black Sea. However, these forces would only augment existing Black Sea Fleet capability and so should not be used as an indicator of Russian readiness for offensive action. On the other hand, these amphibious forces are unlikely to be a feint; the Russians have demonstrated the capability to land battalion-scale forces in the region, and such a landing fits into their theory and practice.

It Looks Like Russia Wants To All But Wall Off Ukraine’s Coastlines Next Week

War Zone – The Russian government has reportedly issued notices warning mariners and aviators to avoid significant portions of the northern end of the Black Sea, as well as the adjacent Sea of Azov, next week ostensibly due to upcoming live-fire naval exercises. The obvious concern is that this could amount to a de facto blockade of Ukraine’s southern coastlines, which in turn might be part of preparations for new large-scale Russian military intervention into that country.

New Chinese Diesel-Electric Submarine Breaks Cover

War Zone – Another new and previously unknown Chinese submarine design has appeared, continuing the country’s prodigious naval shipbuilding program. The emergence of this submarine comes after a new subclass of a conventionally-powered type broke cover last year and the reveal of a highly intriguing “sail-less” design three years before that, though there are no clear indications one way or another that any of these are directly related to each other.

Flotilla Of Russian Landing Ships Is Now In Syria Weeks After Deploying From The Baltic Sea

War Zone – Six Russian Navy amphibious warfare ships that departed the Baltic Sea region in January and entered the Mediterranean Sea last week are now in Syria. The vessels are resupplying at Russia’s naval facility in the Syrian port of Tartus, ostensibly ahead of a large maritime exercise that is set to kick off in the Mediterranean soon. However, there have been persistent discussions about whether these ships might be moving into a place where they could relatively quickly redeploy into the Black Sea to support a potential new Russian military incursion into Ukraine, and they are certainly better positioned for such a contingency now.

US Navy carrier Ford to go on unusual deployment this year

Defense News – The U.S. Navy has promised a first deployment for its new aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford by this fall — but that deployment won’t be a typical one. Ford won’t fall under the operational command of a regional combatant commander. Rather, it will conduct a “service-retained early employment” period where the Navy keeps full control over the ship’s activities and schedule.

A Blast From The Past? The Role of Maritime Sabotage in Strategic Competition

Modern War Institute – Today, as the US military shifts priorities from counterterrorism to strategic competition, SOF have begun to rebalance to focus on both countering violent extremist organizations and competing with peer and near-peer actors. In light of SOF’s history with sabotage and recent renewed interest in the subject (strategic sabotage was listed as a priority research topic for the Joint Special Operations University in 2020, for example), the time is ripe for an analytical examination of the subject. Maritime sabotage operations in particular deserve further study given the growing importance of maritime regions from the Indo-Pacific to the Black Sea.

The Missing ‘D’ in Defending the Nation: Disruption

USNI Blog – The end of the Soviet Union; September 11th; Russian occupation of Crimea; and the emergence of a more aggressive China have dramatically changed the national security and defense equations. Concurrently and invisibly, however, another overarching threat emerged. This threat is one of “massive attacks of disruption,” whether by man or nature. And the shorthand also is MAD. 

Argentina Deploys New Patrol Vessels to Combat IUU Fishing

CIMSEC – The Argentine Navy has deployed its two newest offshore patrol vessels (OPVs), ARA Bouchard (P-51) and ARA Piedrabuena (P-52), to monitor an international fishing fleet traveling close to the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) en route to the South Atlantic. While there have been no confirmed reports of these vessels engaging in illegal, unregulated, or unreported (IUU) fishing, recent history suggests that this is occurring or will occur soon.