Author Archives: Naval Open Source Intelligence (NOSI)

Convoy Escort: The Navy’s Forgotten (Purpose) Mission

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War on the Rocks – Unfortunately, the U.S. Navy appears to have forgotten the importance of its WWII Atlantic campaign. Since 1945, the Navy has prioritized offensive maritime missions — power projection and destruction of enemy fleets — over more essential defensive maritime missions, namely convoy defense. This is a flawed strategy resulting in three deleterious effects.

Amphibious Evolution

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USNI Proceedings – The amphibious ships that transport the U.S. Marine Corps to hostile shores have undergone major changes over the past 80 years. In World War II, the fleet transformed from a force of hastily converted civilian commercial vessels to an armada of thousands of mass-produced ships and boats in a matter of months. The Cold War saw amphibious ships change radically to incorporate new landing craft technology, while post–Cold War types consolidated and grew larger. Today’s fleet is on the cusp of yet another transformation, with planners again eyeing small ships to survive war with a near-peer competitor in the Pacific.

2020 World Operational Naval Highlights

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The ten most significant naval news stories / trends / themes this year included:

  • The impact of the COVID pandemic upon naval operations this year, from the first at sea infections aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt causing it to suspend a deployment to the US Navy’s subsequent mastery of operations underway while under the threat of COVID. What lessons about living with COVID can the civilian world learn from the military world?

  • The catastrophic loss of the USS Bon Homme Richard to a fire while refitting. How could this have happened and how devastating will this loss be to the future operations of the US Navy?

  • The rapidly rotating leadership at the levels of the US Secretary of Defense and US Secretary of the Navy and the resulting large number of conflicting future fleet architecture studies published this year by the US Department of Defense, US Navy, and think tanks. Which one of these interesting studies – most notably the Hudson Institute’s study which begins to demonstrate the realm of the possible in regards to unmanned naval forces – will be the way forward for the US Navy?

  • The complete breakdown in trust between the leadership in the US Department of Defense and US Navy and the US Congress with Congress not trusting the Navy to design manned and unmanned ships or decide its future fleet architecture or budget responsibly for it. How can trust be restored between these entities during the incoming Biden administration so the US Navy can move forward with a coherent plan to meet the rise of China?

  • The continued slow rolling of the US Navy’s work on unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned surface vessels, and unmanned underwater vessels. When will the US Navy re-embrace the advice of Admiral Wayne Meyer and go back to “build a little, test a little, learn a lot” and move forward more vigorously in the unmanned domain?

  • The continued Chinese build-up in the South China Sea and the steady drum beat of the US Navy’s recent FONOPS in the South China Sea in response. Will the incoming Biden administration continue to keep up the pressure up on China?

  • While the Taiwan Strait remains on a slow boil as Taiwan begins to earnestly re-arm, tensions heat up in the East China Sea as well. Is China’s increased patrolling in the area a prelude to it actively challenging Japan’s sovereignty over the area?

  • The solid progress being made by the US Marine Corps in fleshing out its vision for Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations. Will the US Congress allow it to restructure itself and buy what it needs to accomplish this vision?

  • The increasing commitment of Western navies and Coast Guards to the North – in the Arctic and the Barents Sea. Will adequate budget dollars flow to fund these new commitments?

  • Wide-spread commercial undersea mining is about to get underway. What will be the consequences of this new industry for navies and naval forces?

Snakehead Will Be The Largest Underwater Drone That U.S. Nuclear Submarines Can Deploy

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War Zone – The U.S. Navy is moving ahead with plans to expand its unmanned undersea vehicle capabilities with the acquisition of a new large-displacement design as part of its Snakehead program. The service wants these drones, which its nuclear-powered submarines will be able to launch and recover underwater, to initially be able to scout ahead or monitor certain areas, as well as perform other intelligence-gathering missions. It has plans to use them in other roles, including as electronic warfare platforms, in the future, as well.

Defensive Directed-Energy Weapons: Enhancing Survivability

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USNI Blog – Naval warfare is changing. A host of new weaponry, technologies, and sensor systems are fundamentally altering the projection of naval power. The new weapons—hypersonic missiles, directed-energy weapons, and precision-guided munitions, among others—present new threats to the U.S. Navy. Similarly, artificial intelligence and improved sensor networks make it easier for competitors to find, fix, and finish Navy units. The proliferation of modern technologies—such as precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems—to non-peer competitors further multiplies the threat. Consequently, the United States faces a dangerous strategic and operational environment amid a constrained budget environment.

The Marines and America’s Special Operations: More Collaboration Required

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War on the Rocks – U.S. Special Operations Command should take a keen interest in the modernization efforts of the Marine Corps. They serve as a live-action case study for dramatic organizational change — the sort of change that Special Operations Command may now be expected to enact. The public dialogue among relatively junior marine officers also exemplifies the bottom-up driven debate about the future of the service that the special operations community should seek to emulate. Finally, the Marine Corps’ new concept is likely to require significant special operations support, and the two commands should craft a symbiotic relationship as they compete and prepare for conflict.

The Modern Shetland Bus: The Lure of Covert Maritime Vessels for Great-Power Competition

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War on the Rocks – The 2018 National Defense Strategy, directs conventional U.S. military and special operations forces to organize and prepare to counter near-peer competitors. While the threat is global, strategists recognize that the maritime environment, including global littorals, the “island chains” of the Pacific and Indian Ocean, the South China Sea, the Black Sea, the North Sea, and the Baltic coasts are all areas of expected conflict. Winning in these coastal areas and island chains will require a variety of tactics, methodologies, and specialized equipment. A modern Shetland Bus program would not address every contingency, but it would represent a Swiss Army knife-like tool that may provide flexibility and address several key needs.