Defense News – The general who has been nominated to become the next top Marine signaled his strong commitment to two of the main priorities of the current commandant: reshaping the Marine Corps and building out the military’s amphibious fleet.
Island Blitz: A Campaign Analysis of a Taiwan Takeover by the PLA
CIMSEC – This campaign analysis seeks to determine how long U.S. decision-makers can realistically have debates about intervening in a Taiwan crisis before the PLA seizes Taipei and the window for effective intervention with military force has closed. It does so by employing analytical modeling, informed by historical data, to determine how long the Taiwanese can resist a Chinese invasion absent direct U.S. military intervention given best-case-scenario timelines for the PLA. That is to say in this campaign analysis, tactical and operational chance favors the PLA, and Taiwanese resistance is more similar to that of the brave but desperate 2014 Ukrainian military fighting in the Donbass than the more successful and combat credible 2022 Ukrainian military which halted a Russian invasion. What follows is not meant to be predictive, but rather cautionary, and presents the most stressing timeline for U.S. decision-makers. Any deviations from this scenario would only serve to elongate the timeline for the PLA’s campaign, thereby increasing the decision-making space for U.S. leadership.
Key Lawmakers Flex New Positions to Bolster Shipbuilding Industry
Defense News – A flurry of trips to shipyards shows Capitol Hill’s intensified attention to shipbuilding, with several lawmakers from the Gulf Coast and other shipbuilding states assuming key leadership positions on congressional defense committees. They have made clear they want to maximize ship production and repair lines, and some have proposed spending billions of dollars to upgrade shipyard infrastructure. They also want to expand the workforce and continue to approve multiyear, multi-ship procurement contracts. And they’re now in position to help make that happen.
INS Vikrant goes for refit, Indian Navy gets ready for Indo-Pacific
Hindustan Times – Even though INS Vikrant is headed for “guarantee refit” at Cochin shipyard, INS Vikramaditya is fully operational and ready to chart Indo-Pacific.
Russia Doubles Trained Dolphins Defending Base Against Ukrainian Attacks
Naval News – The threat of Ukraine’s elite special forces divers must loom large in the minds of the Russian Navy. As well as extensive anti-torpedo nets and rocket launchers, Russia has increased the trained dolphins guarding Sevastopol in Crimea.
Fire on the Indonesian landing ship Teluk Hading
BMPD – According to Indonesian media, on the afternoon of June 3, 2023, a major fire broke out on board the Teluk Hading , a medium landing ship of the Indonesian Navy. (In Russian)
(Thanks to Alain)
European forces flex their Indo-Pacific reach
Defense News – For decades France served as the European Union’s main representative in the Indo-Pacific, and as the sole member to maintain regional territories, conducting two to three deployments per year. But in the past two years, the number of allies and partners stretching their ability to launch long-distance, rapid deployments and maintain operational capacity in the area has increased.
Fighting into the Bastions: Getting Noisier to Sustain the US Undersea Advantage
Hudson Institute – The US fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) has long been considered an asymmetric advantage against potential adversaries like the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia, which lacked robust and effective anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities. Relying on this advantage, the US Department of Defense (DoD) has increasingly relied on SSNs to compensate for the impact of improved air defenses on the ability of bombers and strike fighters to execute attacks. However, the unfailing ability of US SSNs to reach their targets is eroding as emerging technologies and weapons proliferation combine in new approaches to ASW that could neutralize America’s undersea advantage.
Reinvent The Submarine Force To Beat China
1945 – James Holmes writes that the world’s oceans and seas could become transparent to advanced sensors and processing methods. Submariners could find their world turned upside down soon and suddenly.
Irish Airspace and Waters Remain Europe’s ‘Open Flank’
RUSI – Despite a ‘secret deal’ with the RAF, Ireland’s lack of adequate air and maritime defences leaves Europe vulnerable to surprise attacks. Efforts have been made to overcome this, but more can be done by involving neighbouring countries.
First Marine Corps Tomahawk Cruise Missile Unit Has Stood Up
War Zone – The U.S. Marine Corps has formally activated its first unit that will be equipped with ground-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Marines are currently in the process of determining exactly how this unit will be equipped and employed, but the service expects to have a fully operational Tomahawk-armed battalion before the end of the decade.
China Maritime Report No. 27: PLA Navy Submarine Leadership – Factors Affecting Operational Performance
Chinese Maritime Studies Institute – The way the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) selects and manages its submarine officers increases the likelihood of human performance errors onboard a PLAN submarine. First, PLAN submarine officers are selected from applicants with among the lowest college entrance examinations of any PLA educational institution, suggesting that PLAN submariners are among the service’s least talented officers. Second, the Party Committee system at the apex of decision-making aboard PLAN submarines may be less agile than other approaches to command, at least in certain circumstances. Lastly, while the policy of embarking flotilla leaders senior to the submarine captain may reduce some of the negative effects associated with the first two conditions, it could lead to reduced performance when senior leaders are not present. If external events during wartime stressed these factors, the likelihood of human-induced error events in the PLAN submarine force could increase substantially.
Italian special forces storm Turkish cargo ship after attempted hijack
Guardian – Italian special forces have stormed a cargo ship sailing from Turkey to France after about 15 people armed with knives attempted to hijack the vessel.
The New Pirates
Red Team Defense – FICINT from the French government
(In French and in English – 6 different scenarios)
The NightTrain: Unmanned Expeditionary Logistics For Sustaining Pacific Operations
CIMSEC – During a future conflict, the USMC may be operating multiple Expeditionary Advanced Bases (EABs) on dispersed islands across the Western Pacific. Within their respective island groups, the bases may reposition frequently to complicate enemy targeting. These EABs would either be established prior to the conflict while access was open, or they would be forcibly established with the joint support of naval assets fighting their way in. But naval support may not be accessible enough to provide steady logistical support to advance bases. This is an acutely challenging problem for EABs and demands innovation.
Australia To Get One New Build Virginia Class Submarine, Two From U.S. Navy
War Zone – New details about Australia’s plan to transition to an all nuclear submarine fleet have emerged during intense questioning in Canberra.
Japan Kicks Off New Anti-Ship Cruise Missile Project
War Zone – Japan has kicked off a project to field a new coastal, anti-ship cruise missile as part of the country’s Defense Buildup Program. The “new SSM [surface-to-ship missile]” represents one of many new missile projects, including hypersonic missiles, recently announced by Japan’s Ministry of Defense specifically for “island defense.” It’s likely the new missile will be used on Japan’s southern islands, including around the Senkakus, to deter Chinese military aggression against what is known as the First Island Chain.
TRANSCOM looking for more tankers to move fuel in shallower water between Pacific island chains
Breaking Defense – The commander of US Transportation Command says her agency is working on finding and recruiting 10 additional tanker vessels, especially those that can operate in shallower water, as part of a congressionally authorized program to boost the Defense Department’s ability to move fuel in and around the Indo-Pacific.
US Marine Corps gives update on drone, ship needs for amphibious ops
Defense News – The U.S. Marine Corps is examining what unmanned systems and disruptive technology will benefit the force during amphibious operations in the coming decades, and which combination of ships would best serve future missions.
Unseen Threat: Russia Adds Unusual Defenses To Secretive Navy Base
Naval News – In a new move, the Russian Navy has started building defenses at a secretive submarine base in the Arctic. The floating barrier is similar to what they have deployed in Crimea to protect against Ukrainian attacks. This is highly unusual.
Taiwan’s Navy Caught Between Two Strategies to Counter Chinese Threat
USNI News – Taiwan’s Republic of China Navy is facing two looming threats from China and has been struggling to create a force structure to handle both. First, the ROCN must be able to meet the risk of a potential full-scale invasion by the People’s Republic of China. Second, it has to confront the constant grey zone activities carried out by Chinese forces that are harassing Taiwan’s borders on a daily basis.
Germany’s TKMS signs submarine construction pact with Indian shipyard
Defense News – German submarine builder ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems has signed a pact with Indian shipyard Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd. that would secure local manufacturing in the event the Indian Navy taps the German vendor for new boats.
Cold War U.S. Navy Nearly Armed Its Frigates With Mk 48 Heavyweight Torpedoes
War Zone – The Navy once toyed with the idea of putting heavyweight anti-submarine torpedoes on its frigates, an idea that could be relevant again today.
Quarter of Royal Navy’s frigates spent zero days at sea in 2022
Forces Net – A quarter of the Royal Navy’s frigates spent zero days at sea in 2022, it has been revealed.
(Thanks to Alain)
Makin Island ARG, 13th MEU Deployment Marks Amphibious Shift to the Pacific
USNI News – When the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group returns from deployment this week, it will mark the beginning of a shift in how amphibious forces deploy globally – shifting naval resources away from the Middle East to the Western Pacific.
NOSI - Naval Open Source Intelligence™ 
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