War on the Rocks – U.S. commanders in the Indo-Pacific will have to fight with the forces and weapons policymakers provide them. Recent wargames, like their predecessors, demonstrate the United States needs a better plan for defeating an attack on Taiwan. This means forces and concepts that match U.S. competitive advantages against China’s weaknesses while minimizing the number of forces U.S. commanders will have to position within range of China’s firepower. Fortunately, a better matchup exists, one that focuses the U.S. bomber force against China’s navy and other maritime assets. China cannot take Taiwan, the Senkakus, or other territories in the region if its maritime power is destroyed. The U.S. bomber force could be a mortal threat to China’s maritime power if U.S. policymakers and military planners begin to properly prioritize it. By making China’s maritime assets the main target for the U.S. bomber force, then arming it accordingly, Washington would be well positioned to win a counter-maritime campaign in the western Pacific.
Author Archives: Naval Open Source Intelligence (NOSI)
Ukraine’s New Weapon To Strike Russian Navy In Sevastopol
Naval News – A previously unreported drone boat, known as a USV (uncrewed surface vessel), appears to have slipped past Russian Navy patrols. The device was found on a beach close to the major Russian Navy base of Sevastopol in Crimea.
China’s New Extra-Large Submarine Drones Revealed
Naval News – China’s naval expansion may have a key program which was not previously reported. Secretly deployed to the South China Sea, two unknown underwater vehicles have been seen at Sanya naval base. This may be the first indication of a much larger program.
Sustainment of the Stand-In Force
War on the Rocks – The biggest challenge for the stand-in forces concept right now is that it puts marines inside high-threat areas with minimal logistics sustainment. This requires the Marine Corps to develop and train for a sustainment concept that is light, flexible, responsive, resilient, and redundant. This plan should enable decreasing replenishment time and maintain each stand-in force unit’s low signature. In the commandant’s words, “To persist inside an adversary’s weapons engagement zone, our Stand-in Forces must be set and sustained by logistics capabilities designed for distributed operations over long distances in a contested environment.” How can the joint force replenish supplies, maintain equipment, and restock combat losses while keeping stand-in forces in the fight?
Russian Navy Kilo Class Submarines Retreating From Crimea
Naval News – The changing tide of the Ukraine War appear to have led the Russian Navy to ‘regroup’ its forces in the Black Sea. Early during the invasion they loitered boldly close to Odessa. Now the Black Sea Fleet barely sails out of sight of Crimea for fear of Harpoon missiles. Its submarines too have recently shifted their base further from the shadow of Ukrainian attack.
Not So Fast: Insights From a 1944 War Plan Help Explain Why Invading Taiwan is a Costly Gamble
War on the Rocks – In 1944 U.S. military planners drafted a plan to invade Taiwan: Operation Causeway. The plan was ultimately rejected by senior leaders due to the high costs and risks relative to alternatives for advancing against Tokyo. Analyzing Causeway provides a historical baseline against which to assess the enduring challenges of joint forcible entry operations, particularly those executed from the sea. Put simply, crossing a contested sea only to fight on complex, canalizing terrain against a deliberate defense-in-depth makes amphibious assault in Taiwan a more complex operation than even the famed 1944 Operation Overlord — the D-Day landings. A mix of Taiwanese defense planning and the reality of modern battle network competition compound these challenges, making an invasion likely harder in 2022 than in 1944.
New Details On Japan’s Future BMD Vessels Revealed
Naval News – Here are the latest details on the Aegis system-equipped vessels (ASEVs), Japan’s future ballistic missile defense (BMD) ships.
ShinMaywa and USSOCOM Comment On The US-2 Seaplane
Naval News – Naval News reached out to ShinMaywa Industries, Ltd. in Japan to inquire on if the U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) might be interested in their US-2 seaplane. A representative from ShinMaywa’s Sales and Marketing Department replied. Naval News also reached out to USSOCOM for additional C-130J MAC status and comment.
Navy Electronic Warfare Container Could Go On Ships, Aircraft, Trucks
War on the Rocks – A new Navy program envisions a electronic warfare and intelligence suite that will work with any platform big enough to carry it.
Call the Maritime Cavalry: Marine Corps Modernization and the Stand-In Force
War on the Rocks – Genghis Khan and Napoleon Bonaparte used cavalry units and combined arms to wreak havoc in Europe and Eurasia long before debates about the future of the Marines Corps and maneuver warfare. Today, the Marine Corps can also apply these time-tested tactics to develop a “maritime cavalry” and provide an essential maneuver element that complements the latest joint force capabilities and fighting concepts. Perhaps more importantly, creating a maritime cavalry would add a dynamic combined-arms element to the Marine Corps’ latest Force Design 2030 formations and concepts while channeling its “first to fight” ethos.
Saudi naval modernization pushes ahead, with eye always on Iran
Breaking Defense – The first of five new corvettes recently arrived at King Faisal Naval Base in Jeddah, upgrading the Saudi fleet’s capabilities in the Red Sea.
Given China’s A2/AD Capabilities, How Would the United States Defend Taiwan?
USNI Blog – To effectively defend Taiwan from a military standpoint, the United States must be willing to defend Taiwan from outside of Taiwan. In other words, the defense of Taiwan from an invasion from China need not be confined to the main island of Taiwan, nor the Taiwan Strait. Moreover, expectations held by the United States should be that an invasion of Taiwan by China will look nothing like the previous four Taiwan Strait Crises (1954–55, 1958, 1995–96, 2022), which were generally limited, and instead be prepared for a conflict of a much larger-scale and intensity.
Building up the Lightning Force – when will the UK get its F-35 jets?
Navy Lookout – It has been revealed that Full Operating Capability for the UK Lightning Force has been delayed by 2 years. Here we look at how UK F-35s numbers are building up, issues that impact the pace of aircraft delivery and how this affects the carrier air group generation.
Romanian Minesweeper Hits Sea Mine In The Black Sea
Naval News – The Musca-class minesweeper of the Romanian Navy was damaged by a floating mine on 08 September 2022 in the Black Sea, northeast of the port of Constantza.
The Second Anglo-Icelandic Cod War (1972–73)—Analysis of a Modern Sea Dispute and Implications for the South China Sea
US Naval War College Review – Analysis of the strategies employed by the British navy and Icelandic coast guard during the third Anglo-Icelandic sea dispute, in 1972–73, and the context in which they did so illuminates how modern sea disputes exist in the realm of competition for limited objectives, not warfare, and how the use of force can jeopardize recognition of the claims involved.
War Is the Storm—Clausewitz, Chaos, and Complex War Studies
US Naval War College Review – Complexity theories indeed do apply to war, and Clausewitz’s theories were the first to grapple with them. War is nonlinear, but the parallels between war and complexity science, and between complexity science and Clausewitz, do not stop with nonlinearity. Clausewitz’s theory of war does not just allude to complexity; rather, complexity is at its very core.
The World’s Fishermen as a Maritime Sensor Network
USNI Proceedings – A crowdsourcing platform could help counter Chinese IUU fishing.
Countering China’s “Trident” Strategy—Frustrating China’s Aims in the East and South China Seas and the Indian Ocean
US Naval War College Review – China is trying to construct a naval strategy to deny U.S. forces freedom of action in the western Pacific Ocean. Looking back to the U.S. Navy’s last major strategic contest, against the Soviet navy during the Cold War, provides comparisons between Soviet and Chinese strategies that yield insights and analogies that can help develop more effective countermeasures against undesirable Chinese initiatives.
Expeditionary Cutter Deployments Should Not Be a Mission to Mars
USNI Proceedings – The Coast Guard must address cutter self-sustainability
as the fleet’s range and missions become more global.
The first year – Royal Navy OPVs deployed in the Pacific
Navy Lookout – HMS Tamar and HMS Spey sailed from Portsmouth on 7th September 2021 to be forward deployed in the Pacific for at least the next five years. A year on from their departure we look at what has been achieved and the benefits of a permanent Royal Navy presence in the region.
Command of the Sea Redux
US Naval War College Review – The United States and the West already may have lost command of the sea. To deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or similar aggression, the Navy may need to pursue a very different fleet architecture, further integrate the maintenance and exercise of command, and seek modifications to a Unified Command Plan that ignores the indivisibility of the world ocean.
What We Know About Iran’s Newly Unveiled Catamaran Warship
War Zone – The ship is actually somewhat impressive, regardless of its true capabilities, and is a more legitimate warship than its catamaran forerunner.
How The U.S. Rushed Harpoon Anti-Ship Missiles To Ukraine
War Zone – A Pentagon official explained how the U.S. helped turn ship-based Harpoons into truck-based weapons used by Ukraine to sink two Russian ships.
The STAR Plan: New Capabilities In Sight For The Belgian Navy
Naval News – Belgium is about to increase its defense budget significantly. The country’s Parliament recently adopted a revised version of the military planning law (loi de programmation militaire, LPM) which includes an extra 11.7 billion Euros, among which a minority part is devoted to the Belgian Navy.
Japan to Build Two 20,000-ton Missile Defense Warships, Indian Carrier Commissions
USNI News – Japan’s Ministry of Defence is proposing to build a pair of ballistic missile defense ships – the among largest warships in the Japanese inventory since World War II – government officials said last week.
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