War on the Rocks – China is systematically building a legal framework for a potential invasion of Taiwan. How can Taiwan’s friends, partners, and allies push back?
Author Archives: Naval Open Source Intelligence (NOSI)
When It Comes To Submarines, Australia Is Going To Be Left High And Dry
War on the Rocks – As the new American president shook allied capitals all over the world, a Virginia-class submarine — the USS Minnesota — arrived at a port in western Australia for the first of many routine Australian port visits slated for American submarines this year. It seemed like a positive signal for the U.S.-Australian alliance. And, despite uncertainty over America’s commitments, officials in the Trump administration have praised the AUKUS security compact. Still, these are the only sorts of Virginia-class submarines Australians should expect to arrive on their shores anytime soon: visiting American submarines crewed by Americans. Despite the promises of the first and core pillar of the AUKUS security compact, the United States simply won’t have enough Virginia-class submarines to spare. To make matters worse, the SSN AUKUS — meant to be Australia’s long-term solution — is likely to encounter significant delays and issues, similar to Britain’s past submarine programs, due to challenges in design maturity, production capacity, and technical complexities, making it an unreliable solution for Australia’s submarine needs. Faced with a stark reality, it is time for Australia to reconsider its options.
Large, Crewed Sixth-Generation Aircraft Have Unique Value in the Indo-Pacific
RUSI – Outsized combat aircraft built for stealthy long-range supersonic flight may be worth the cost for the US and China, but countries in Europe may be better off pursuing other capabilities.
The USS Gettysburg Shootdown Through Chinese Eyes
National Interest – James Holmes asks what takeaways will Chinese military observers draw from USS Gettysburg’s accidental downing of a U.S. Navy F/A-18F Super Hornet fighter jet in the Red Sea last December? You can bet that Beijing is poring over the incident and figuring out how to put the insights it gleans to work in the Taiwan Strait, in the South China Sea, or on some other future battleground. People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers, not to mention Chinese think-tankers and scholars of military affairs, are attentive people. They are perpetually on the lookout for strategic advantage. They do their homework.
Royal Navy deepens Aster 30 air defence missile stocks
Navy Lookout – Reports in the French media say that an additional 220 Aster 30 missiles have been ordered under a tri-national procurement. Aster 30 is the RN’s primary air defence missile, the effector used in the Sea Viper system that equips the six Type 45 destroyers.
French Carrier Charles de Gaulle Wraps First Pacific Deployment
USNI News – The French Carrier Strike Group has completed its first deployment in the Pacific and deepened ties with U.S. and Japanese forces.
RUSI Maritime Sanctions Taskforce: Second Meeting Report
RUSI – In January 2025, the RUSI Maritime Sanctions Taskforce met for the second time. This report presents findings from the meeting, which was held to examine the evolving strategies of the shadow fleet and provide operational recommendations to enhance collective enforcement efforts.
F-35 Set to Receive Critical Upgrades in 2025 Production Lots
Naval News – Between the addition of new anti-ship cruise missiles and the delivery of new F-35 jets with Sidekick compatibility, the U.S. Navy is pushing forward to a new standard for the Joint Strike Fighter program that will peak with the rollout of various Block 4 lethality upgrades later this decade.
US support to maintain UK’s nuclear arsenal is in doubt, experts say
The Guardian – Britain’s ability to rely on the US to maintain the UK’s nuclear arsenal is now in doubt, experts have warned, but working with European states to replace it will be costly and take time.
We’re here to stop Russia taking the Black Sea’: with the Ukrainian Navy as they battle for supremacy on the waves
The Guardian – Captain Oleksandr put his hand on the throttle and nudged it forward. His patrol boat roared into action and zipped through the waves. Behind him was the Ukrainian port of Odesa. In front – beyond a grey expanse of water, and 180km (112 miles) away, was occupied Crimea. “We’re here to stop the Russians from taking the Black Sea,” Oleksandr said, as his boat – travelling at a nippy 30 knots – rolled up and down.
Venezuelan Navy intrudes Guyana’s EEZ
Naval News – Tensions between Venezuela and Guyana continue to rise with the Venezuelan Coast Guard recently making incursions into Guyana’s exclusive economic zone.
Chinese Naval Task Force Circumnavigates Australia, Creates Local Stir
Naval News – Since at least 11 February, Australia and New Zealand have been tracking a group of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships, referred to as Task Force 107 by the Australian Department of Defence, near Australia. Using a variety of sources from Australia and New Zealand, Naval News has attempted to piece together a timeline of their circumnavigation of Australia.
Houthi Weapons Arsenal Remains A Mystery To The U.S.
The War Zone – Despite 18 months of attacks by the Houthis, the U.S. does not have a clear idea of how many standoff weapons they possess or how they get all of them.
On Wider Seas: Italian Naval Deployments and Maritime Outreach to the Indo-Pacific
CIMSEC – The Italian Navy deployed in force to the Indo-Pacific in the second half of 2024, sending a Carrier Strike Group comprised of the aircraft carrier ITS Cavour and frigate ITS Alpino, along with the independent deployments of ITS Raimondo Montecuccoli and ITS Amerigo Vespucci. These deployments, which represented various firsts for Italy, underpin, underscore, and operationalize the Meloni administration’s pursuit of new strategic horizons far beyond the Mediterranean Sea.
Below the Threshold Deterrence, Philippine Style
War on the Rocks – Manila is implementing a deterrence posture that imposes reputational costs to China for its use of “gray-zone tactics” in the South China Sea. We use the term gray-zone tactics to define “a strategic approach that operates between conventional warfare and peacetime competition.” The Philippines’ “below-the-threshold” approach to deterrence uses non-military means to impose costs, limiting the risk of escalation while establishing credible threats. Reportedly, Manila has integrated transparency initiatives as a component of its January 2024 Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept.
Trump’s ‘Make Shipbuilding Great Again’ Order Calls for Wholesale Overhaul of U.S. Maritime Industry
USNI News – The Trump administration wants a sweeping government-wide overhaul of the U.S. commercial and military maritime sectors in an effort to catch up to China’s unrivaled shipbuilding capacity.
Royal Navy shadows another Russian convoy in the English Channel
Navy Lookout – HMS Somerset, together with her Merlin helicopter and an RAF P-8A Poseidon aircraft, monitored a Russian corvette and cargo ship passing eastward through the English Channel in the past few days.
Mysterious Naval Vessel Spotted In Washington State Is A New DARPA Drone Ship
The War Zone – slender, partially covered naval ship that recently emerged in Washington state is the Defiant, a new medium-sized uncrewed surface vessel (USV) designed from the keel up to operate without any humans ever onboard. Developed under the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) No Manning Required Ship (NOMARS) program, Defiant could be an important stepping stone for the U.S. Navy’s ambitions to add larger and more capable USVs to its fleets.
Iran unveils high-speed vessel armed with cruise missiles
Mehr – The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has unveiled a new high-speed vessel equipped with advanced cruise missiles capable of targeting enemy destroyers, marking a significant enhancement in Iran’s naval defense capabilities.
(Thanks to Alain)
Hong Kong billionaire to sell Panama Canal ports to US firm
BBC – A Hong Kong-based company has agreed to sell most of its stake in two key ports on the Panama Canal to a group led by US investment firm BlackRock. The sale comes after weeks of complaining by President Donald Trump that the canal is under Chinese control and that the US should take control of the major shipping route.
Russian destroyer Severomorsk could become the new flagship of the Baltic Fleet to strengthen its anti-submarine capabilities
Army Recognition – According to MilitaryRussia on March 2, 2025, the Baltic Fleet appears to have a new flagship, as the Russian Navy has left the Severomorsk, a Udaloy-class destroyer, in the Baltic Sea following its 14-month technical restoration and combat training, rather than returning it to its home fleet. This decision appears to be related to the status of the Baltic Fleet’s former flagship, the Nastoichivy, which has likely been decommissioned and is awaiting disposal, as suggested by the cessation of its sea deployments.
(Thanks to Alain)
Modern-Day Privateers Could Fight Mexico’s Drug Cartels
National Interest – James Holmes writes that lawmakers are contemplating is a letter of marque that bestows the authority to execute an open-ended maritime campaign under supervision from Washington.
Royal Navy receives first fully autonomous end-to-end mine warfare system
Navy Lookout – In February, the Royal Navy received its first serial production Maritime Mine Counter Measures (MMCM) system—an advanced suite of technologies designed to locate, classify and neutralise naval mines, operated either autonomously or via remote control.
Harpoon anti-ship missile integrated on U.S. Air Force F-16 in new test
Naval News – The use of Harpoon anti-ship missile on foreign customers of the F-16 is not uncommon. Integrating them on American F-16s is.
Should Medium Naval Powers Like Chile Have Their Own Shipbuilding Capacity?
RUSI – In South America, keeping costs and labour in local shipyards might be an option to compete with a heavily stressed global market.
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