War on the Rocks – Of all the flashpoints facing the Trump administration on Jan. 20, 2025, China’s campaign of intimidation and maritime occupation in the South China Sea may prove the most concerning for U.S. interests and preventing war in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing has spent decades occupying, building, and militarizing islands in those resource-rich waters through which trillions of dollars of trade pass annually. China’s incessant maritime incursions have ignored the sovereignty of its neighbors, violated international law, and given it strategic footholds for exercising political, economic, and military leverage. The aggressiveness of China’s expansionism has spiked in the last 18 months, with the Philippines as the focal point of its ire. Beijing’s timing is not coincidental. The Philippines, a mutual defense treaty ally of the United States, is entering a pivotal 12-month period in which a convergence of critical issues promises seismic implications for not only its national security, defense, and foreign policy trajectory but also its internal stability. As Beijing has pushed the region to the brink, it has dragged the Philippines to center stage.
Author Archives: Naval Open Source Intelligence (NOSI)
Satellite Photos Show Russian Navy Exodus From Syria, Syrian Missile Boats Sunk at Pier
USNI News – New satellite photos from the Tartus naval base on the edge of the Mediterranean Sea show Russian Navy ships anchored off the coast of Syria after abandoning Moscow’s only overseas naval base. Photos also show the destruction of Syrian Navy missile boats at the in Latakia.
Tilting Mark 41 Launcher Emerges During Guam’s First Aegis Ashore Missile Defense Test
The War Zone – The test that saw an SM-3 swat down target is a big step forward for the massive air defense system being installed on the island.
Israel Lays Waste To Syria’s Missile Boats
The War Zone – Israel targeted Syrian Navy vessels as part of hundreds of strikes aimed at preventing former Assad regime assets falling into rebel hands.
Marines hindered by Navy’s amphibious warfare ship maintenance delays
Defense News – Nearly half of the amphibious warfare ships Marines need to deploy often are unavailable due to maintenance, according to a government watchdog. How the Navy currently manages those repairs means jarheads will continue to deploy late to the fight.
‘Eroding readiness’: US Coast Guard Commandant warns of looming crisis
Breaking Defense – “We don’t have enough parts … and we’re deferring on dry docks. That will all begin to compound for more costs, not less, and it is eroding readiness,” Adm. Linda Fagan told Breaking Defense.
German Navy Wraps Indopacific Deployment – A Naval News Assessment
Naval News – Longest global cruise in decades for the German Navy provided significant accomplishments. International security environment meanwhile casts shadows over stated political ambitions.
The Type 26 Frigate – more than just a submarine hunter
Navy Lookout – At the recent IMarEST conference, the RN outlined some of its thinking about how the Type 26 frigate’s Mission Bay could be utilised in service. Here we look at these concepts and progress on the road to delivery.
Anduril self-funds robot submarine testing to court US customers
Breaking Defense – “What we have been able to do with the Australian navy has begun to make believers” in robotic submarine technology, said Anduril Chief Strategy Officer Chris Brose.
Australian Navy Fires Tomahawk Cruise Missile For The First Time
The War Zone – Tomahawks will give Australia the ability to reach deep into China’s anti-access bubble, striking ships and land targets.
Dwarfed by China in shipbuilding, US looks to build its defense base
Defense News – The U.S. severely lags behind China in shipbuilding capacity, lawmakers and experts have warned, as the Biden administration tries to build up the country’s ability to develop and produce weapons and other defense supplies to fend off war.
China’s Strategic Options in the Euro-Atlantic
RUSI – This paper seeks to outline the likely scope of a putative presence of the People’s Liberation Army Navy in and around the Euro-Atlantic in the next 15 years and the nature of the foreign policy it will support.
PLA hosts leaders of African navies
China Daily – In a bid to bolster collaborative maritime security efforts, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy convened naval leaders from 18 countries across the Gulf of Guinea region in Shanghai on Wednesday for the second seminar on the Gulf of Guinea maritime security situation.
Visual on the Marlin
CIMSEC – A FICINT short story.
USS Carney’s Red Sea Operations Highlight 5-inch Deck Gun’s Anti-Air Capability
The War Zone – As U.S. Navy destroyers continue to shoot down Iran-backed Houthi militant drone and missile barrages in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, a new Navy recounting of the first of those engagements, which involved the USS Carney (DDG-64), highlights a seldom discussed secondary application for the ship’s Mark 45 5-inch main deck gun — shooting down aerial threats.
Dark Ocean
CIMSEC – A FICINT short story.
Lessons Learned
CIMSEC – a FICINT short story.
Basing U.S. Vessels in the Indian Ocean: Pros and Cons
Center for Maritime Strategy – The U.S. Navy should consider basing ships in the Indian Ocean to ensure this vast expanse of water (stretching more than 6,200 miles from east to west at its widest point) to ensure it can quickly respond to threats in the region.
Japan to Transfer Coastal Radars, Small Boats to Philippine Military in Latest Defense Aid Package
USNI News – The Philippine Navy and Air Force are set to receive small boats and radars from Japan through a $10.6 million Official Security Assistance grant that Tokyo says will strengthen Manila’s capabilities in the South China Sea and Luzon Strait.
The Impending Tide
CIMSEC – A FICINT short story.
Our Best Look At Russia’s Shadowy Zircon Hypersonic Missile
The War Zone – recent drill by the Russian Armed Forces in the Mediterranean has provided us with a more detailed view of the shadowy Zircon hypersonic missile, a weapon that has only been glimpsed in the past and shown up in the form of fragments after being combat tested in Ukraine.
New Details On Japan’s MQ-9B SeaGuardian Procurement For JMSDF
Naval News – Japan has selected the MQ-9B SeaGuardian remotely piloted aircraft system to equip the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). Naval News reached out to the JMSDF to find out more about this procurement.
Veins of Valor
CIMSEC – A FICINT short story.
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China Maritime Report No. 43: Shadow Force, A Look Inside the PLA Navy Reserve
China Maritime Studies Institute – The PLA Navy Reserve is an important and understudied element of PRC maritime power that could augment the active-duty force and improve its ability to undertake global operations and wage a protracted war.
The PLAN Reserve appears to be transitioning from a substandard backup force to an increasingly well-trained complement to the active-duty force.
In the past, the PLAN Reserve suffered from low morale and lackluster participation. Training scandals occurred in which navy reservists did not muster up when recalled for training. It is unclear to what extent these problems persist today.
The overhaul of the PLAN’s reserve components, specifically the integration of the PLAN Reserve into a centralized command structure and the introduction of new legislative and policy reforms, constitutes a serious effort to enhance operational effectiveness, increase mobilization speeds, and improve readiness.
The PLAN Reserve is remarkably opaque. While little has been publicly revealed about this shadowy force, future research may offer opportunities to develop early-warning indicators and help reveal plans, intentions, and capabilities.
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