How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Defense News – Defense News spoke to sources in Congress, the Pentagon and Washington-based think tanks to understand what may be the most important, most misunderstood year in Sino-U.S. relations. The message was that 2027 has exposed a rift in Washington’s China strategy. The U.S. is more focused on the country it calls its “pacing challenge,” but experts disagree on whether it’s running a sprint or a marathon — and if it can prepare for both.

China’s Long March Toward Aircraft Carrier Capability 

Defense Opinion – The third Chinese carrier Fujian recently went to sea for trials, at some times trailing an Admiral Kuznetsov-like plume of smoke, reminiscent of the troubled Russian carrier’s last voyage outside home waters in 2023 when its engineering troubles made for global headlines. China has been in pursuit of a carrier aviation capability for nearly 40 years, using every imaginable method to acquire carriers via deception, amusement park attraction and finally domestic carrier production.

A Declining China Is a Dangerous China

National Interest – Even if the United States has fallen into decline in absolute economic and military terms, China may have crested early and plunged into yet steeper decline. In that case, the margin between the contestants would widen even if both countries were on the wane. If that’s how Xi Jinping & Co. size things up, they might order the People’s Liberation Army into action while China stands its best chance of success. There is ample precedent. 

Red Sea Topic Week

CIMSEC – 11 articles on the Red Sed, which has become arguably the most hotly contested maritime region in the world. A vital maritime chokepoint is being fought over by a coalition of naval powers and a heavily armed Iranian proxy group, the Houthis. These events offer useful lessons on the exercise of naval power, as well as the crisis decision-making of militaries, commercial firms, and nation-states.

It’s Still the Indian Ocean: Parsing Sino-Indian Naval Competition Where it Counts

War on the Rocks – Comparing Indian and Chinese military capabilities in isolation from the broader transregional context can lead to inaccurate assessments. China faces security challenges at a much larger scale than India. Moreover, India currently also benefits from strategic partnerships with countries such as the United States, Japan, and France that give it greater latitude in the Indian Ocean, which is its principal area of interest. Growing power disparity will certainly keep Indian strategic thinkers worried for some time to come, but they should not lose sight of the strategic advantages India currently enjoys. These reflect India’s fewer supply-chain vulnerabilities in its own backyard, the nature of other security threats the two countries face, and, most important, the enormous geographical advantage India has over China in the Indian Ocean. Any Chinese naval flotilla sent to engage the Indian navy would be without reliable air cover and, due to logistical constraints, would only be able to sustain combat operations for a few weeks.

The East and South China Seas: One Sea, Near Seas, Whose Seas?

War on the Rocks – One Sea, Two Seas, Far Seas, Near Seas? For all the attention they receive as contested Indo-Pacific maritime regions, the strategic differences between East and South China Seas do not always get their due. Each of these bodies of water contains land features claimed by the People’s Republic of China and at least one ally or partner of the United States. To Beijing, the East and South China Seas are all part of its “near seas,” and China continues to take steps to assert control over this space as one unified maritime periphery — which we refer to colloquially as China’s “One Sea.” The disputed land features in these seas are small — islands, reefs, and rocks — but the economic, maritime, and security stakes associated with them are large. Countries around the East and South China Seas, however, are not taking China’s actions passively. In their own unique ways that reject the notion of a single “One China Sea,” these countries are adapting and exploring new methods to assert their own maritime rights.

China Maritime Report No. 38: PLAN Anti-Submarine Warfare Aircraft – Sensors, Weapons, and Operational Concepts

China Maritime Studies Institute – The PLA Navy recognizes the importance of a robust anti-submarine warfare (ASW) system to counter adversaries seeking undersea asymmetric advantages, and its aviation component is a key part of that system. This report discusses the PLAN’s efforts to improve its airborne ASW platforms and equipment and describes how PLAN-affiliated sources discuss the employment of those assets. The PLAN’s significant buildup and growing employment of fixed-wing maritime patrol aircraft in recent years are key indicators of the importance it attaches to the airborne ASW mission set, as is its push to acquire improved sensors on both fixed and rotary wing ASW platforms. PLAN-affiliated authors show that its academic and operational components are coordinating to explore best practices and maximize the effectiveness of these assets across a wide array of ASW scenarios.