Dust

Over the Horizon – Science Fiction has always been a vehicle to the future. In the modern era of conversations about complexity, AI, human machine interfaces, and other exotic ideas, the genre can provide a way to stitch things together. We can take all of these disparate developments, operating concepts, and fuzzy ideas and combine them the same way our ancestors made sense of the word: with a story. At the strategic level, the two nations in conflict here have taken a markedly different approach to developing today’s technological trends. The enemy nation of Donovia has invested heavily in autonomous systems and artificial intelligence (AI), taking a bet that they can teach and grow better algorithms. Christopherson’s side, however, has taken a more balanced approach to integrating AI and autonomy by preserving man-on-the-loop for action and keeping their strategic level AI providing intelligence fusion. Different strategies will influence the future of technology development, but more importantly strategy will dictate how we use those technologies.

East China Sea: Japan’s plan to counter Beijing in Diaoyus with jetfighter upgrades hits money snag

South China Morning Post – Rising costs have significantly delayed Tokyo’s plans to deploy F-15 fighter jets capable of launching cruise missiles against ships or land targets, with Beijing’s ongoing activities close to disputed islands in the East China Sea underlining the importance of the new deterrent to the Japanese military.

After 9 Months of Study, Pentagon’s Fleet Architecture Similar to Original Navy Plan

USNI News – At the beginning of the year, the Navy and Marine Corps sent a new fleet plan to Pentagon leaders that called for relying on smaller ships and unmanned vessels to meet future missions and defeat future adversaries. The Pentagon rejected the plan. Nine-months later, Pentagon leaders reached the same conclusion: the Navy needed to be more distributed and weighted towards small combatants and unmanned craft. What did that additional effort really get the sea services? Not much, according to some officials involved in both processes.

Why the Arctic is Not the ‘Next’ South China Sea

War on the Rocks – Overall, the South China Sea and the Arctic are very different maritime regions with distinct geopolitical characteristics. China is clearly borrowing from the great-power exceptionalism playbook in the South China Sea. Yet while Beijing has articulated a clear strategic interest in the Arctic, a replication of its South China Sea play book in the Arctic is highly unlikely.

China Maritime Report No. 10: PLAN Force Structure Projection Concept, A Methodology for Looking Down Range

China Maritime Studies Institute – Force structure projections of an adversary’s potential order of battle are an essential input into the strategic planning process. Currently, the majority of predictions regarding China’s future naval buildup are based on a simple extrapolation of the impressive historical ship construction rate and shipyard capacity, without acknowledging that the political and economic situation in China has changed dramatically.

United States Approves Possible FMS Of MQ-9B SeaGuardian To Taiwan

Naval News – The United States’ State Department approved a possible Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to Taiwan of four “Weapons-Ready MQ-9B Remotely Piloted Aircraft and related equipment” for an estimated cost of $600 million. The system has “anti-submarine strike capabilities” meaning it is the SeaGuardian variant of General Atomics’ MQ-9B.