Hedging With Humility: Reassessing China’s Power Projection Capabilities Against Taiwan

War on the Rocks –  We offer a broader analysis of how China’s industrial base and civilian fleet might catalyze other operational approaches and timelines for taking Taiwan by rapidly erasing these supposed deficits in lift and firepower. With U.S. intervention, Taiwan can be defended and China can be deterred through this decade and beyond, but China’s capabilities should first be seen holistically for what they are and appreciated for what they can soon become.

South Korea Drops Aircraft Carrier Ambitions, Doubles Down On Submarines

War Zone – South Korea’s ambitious plans to build its first aircraft carrier, known as CVX, appear to be under serious threat, with the news that the project has not been funded as part of the country’s proposed 2023 defense budget. That also raises questions about Seoul’s plans to operate F-35B stealth fighters but should be good news for its submarine fleet, which is earmarked to receive more funding, including for Dosan Ahn Changho class attack submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles.

Controlling The First Island Chain: How To Ensure China Can’t Dominate The Pacific?

1945 – James Holmes writes that if you harbored any doubt that the first island chain represents the focal point of strategy, counterstrategy, and counter-counterstrategy in the Western Pacific, take a gander at recent developments out of Tokyo and Beijing. Exhibit A: the Japan Ministry of Defense released Defense of Japan 2022, an official statement wherein the ministry takes stock of Japan’s strategic surroundings and explains in general terms how it intends to manage them.

PLA aircraft carrier Shandong holds drills in South China Sea in full combat group

Global Times – The Shandong, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s second aircraft carrier and the first domestically built, recently held comprehensive drills in the South China Sea in a group consisting of full combat elements, which analysts said on Thursday showed the carrier is becoming ready for far sea operations.

For 1st time China sends ground, naval, air forces to join Russian Vostok drills

Global Times – The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has dispatched forces to join the upcoming Vostok-2022 in Russia, with PLA ground and air forces having already arrived at the designated drill region and naval forces being rendezvoused with Russian warships at sea. This is the first time the PLA has sent three of its forces to participate in a single Russian drill, observers said.

US Navy Talks About USV, Data And MUM-T

Naval News – At the Surface Navy Associations’ Waterfront Symposium 2022, held on August 17-18, the U.S. Navy fielded audience questions regarding the status of the unmanned surface vessels (USV) that participated in Rim of the Pacific 2022 (RIMPAC 2022) naval exercise. Specifically, the USV panel discussed data and manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) of aerial, surface, and sub-surface vessels. 

The State of the Warfighter Mentality in the SWO Community

CIMSEC – As the United States shifts focus from the Global War on Terror to peer competitors, senior naval leaders have increased messaging to the fleet that focuses on preparing for war at sea. Considering this shift, I investigated the state of the warfighter mentality in the Surface Warfare Officer (SWO) community to gauge how the community felt about its own readiness.

The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis is Just Starting

War on the Rocks – The Chinese military exercises that began on Aug. 3, 2022, have initiated the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis. The most immediate reason for this was Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. But this is a bigger crisis, driven by bigger factors. There has been a steady erosion in Sino-American relations and — not unrelated — a shift in the nature of U.S.-Taiwan relations that Beijing finds deeply threatening. As a result, expectations of a rapid resolution to the crisis are chimeric, as too are blithe expectations of a quick return to the status quo ante.